主题：A smoking gun -- 大众河蟹

FNM imploded today. Banks have to tighten their mortgage policy soon.

北美炒房的同志们注意了，no more easy money. 大家快撤吧。

共和党议员急得跳脚骂提利率的老头，布什制造的虚假经济要垮台了。

不过我的预测是在年底有真的动静，明年上半年雪崩。

比过去６年任何时候都难卖．价格降的一塌糊涂．

咱是有自家房子在卖,所以感触深一些

本来今年比去年又涨了25%．但这两个月好象回去了不少．价格已经降到二月份的水平．而且市面上房子listing超过两个月卖不掉的多的很．

升利息的效果还是很明显的．很多人都说到明年春天卖，我可真不敢想象大家一起卖是什么情况．

现在利率比以前高了很多,贷款也更难了.Inflation这么高，您那里居然还能涨，确实不容易

久仰xlin, jtian, McArthr 诸位，不知何时有机会一见。

Regional history could be biased, if it's not considered under overall environment. The SF area housing boom in the early 90's were mostly localized, but the current house booming, if it's not nationwide, at least, it's much more widespread. It covers almost all the 'developed' regions in the US: From Boston to DC and Florida on the east, and CA on the west. I'm not sure about Chicago and Seattle areas, if that's also the case, then basically the house booming covers almost all the 'red states' and battle states during recent elections. By saying this, I just want to remind people the local housing/economy will likely affected by other areas with similar situation for this time.

The job factor is only one aspect of the game. basically I think it reflects the supply and demand. The assumption is: with sustained job creation in the area, there are will be sustained demand for housing, and there is limited supply in the area, therefore, the housing price will:

case 1: continue to go up

or case2: at least won't go down much.

But there are other factors can make this assumption wrong:

Housing will be still "Affordable" to meet the demands.

To achieve this, we have to see:

A dramatic increase in income to catch the housing price increase. Basic on the following American Community Survey by Census Bureau, the household income did not increased much (if not decreased) in the top tier US counties which cover large areas in the DC metro,

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/GRTTable?_bm=y&-geo_id=01000US&-_box_head_nbr=R2001&-ds_name=ACS_2004_EST_G00_&-redoLog=false&-format=US-31&-mt_name=ACS_2003_EST_G00_R07_US31&-CONTEXT=grt

Interest rate stays low and "easy money" continues.

That is not likely to happen. We've seen mortgage banks using 0% down, ARM, balloon and interest only loans to keep the monthly mortgage payment as low as possible. It can hardly go any lower. But with the soared energy price and gradually re-valued RMB, we are more likely to see higher inflation, that translates into higher interest rates. If China or other foreign buyers stop to buy treasury bond, not even mention if they starts to dump T-bonds, interest rate will increate even faster. All these means the monthly payment will be higher for the same amount of mortgage for new buyers. Also, property tax and utility cost also go higher, further limit the housing affordability.

Meanwhile, because the "easy money" policy, mortgage banks have put them vulnerable in the raising rate environment. Here is a two-year chart for Fannie Mae, look at how ugly it is for the longs. FNM and FRE hold much of the US mortgage loans. It is a ticking time bomb. If it collapses, then the whole U.S. economy will be dragged down.

https://www.bigcharts.com/custom/datek-com/datek-rt2.asp?osymb=fnm&symb=fnm&time=2yr&freq=1dy&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&comp=&type=4&ma=5&maval=25&uf=8&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=32&sid=1899&x=61&y=8

To protect themselves, the lenders are tightening up mortgage policy: gradually, they will rise the down payment requirement, tighten appraisal policy and income/credit check, and fewer people will be qualified for ARM or Interest only loans if there is still such loans available. So, even some people want to buy a bigger home, they just can't get enough loan for it.

The whole US economy will be in a good shape:

With the recent gas price surge, how many of you have reduced your driving to save gas, how many "there would be" spending has been cut, such as vacations, shopping? The U.S. consumers are counted for 70% of US economy, if they spend less because higher gas and utility bills, then it is a bad news for the whole US economy - the only good news is we are going to have deeper discount for the holiday seasons.

The demand is guaranteed:

If the whole economy goes worse, we will see more layoffs and more individual bankrupt, and foreclosures. The recent amendment for personal bankruptcy law makes it harder for one to go out of bankruptcy. Higher un-employment rate will translate to less demand.

For this area, the job creation highly depends on federal spending. With the government deficit mounting up, it can't go forever. If the government continues to create deficit to a breaking point, we will see dollar devalue rapidly, which means hyper-inflation, hyper-interest-rate, or the government is forced to cut budget. The government contacts will be the first on the line, which has a direct impact for the local job market. The Katrina effect on NO has just draw it to the breaking point one big step, where do you think the 200B re-building fund comes from? BTW, those money will have little benefits for our area.

When the wide-spread housing bubble bursts, some areas are faster than other areas. Business will adjust themselves, which draw more areas down. If the CA or New England housing price down 50% from its heights, it will become more attractive to some business, and draw jobs from other places to that area. Don't say there is no way we will see house price down 50%, Japan and Hong Kong all saw that happened in the 90S, why that can't happen in the hottest market in the US?

The supply will continue to be tight:

Although there are limit houses will be built in this area, there are also many people heavily involved in RE investments, which creates another source of supply, when the house price stops to go higher, these people, mostly using home equity loan or other types of short term loans to finance their investment, will be the first group to dump their investment.

I think all the factors I talked are legitimate concerns (and leave out those most drastic scenarios, such as the collapse of US dollar or Fannie Mae) except we are not sure when we are going to see the effects. People have been calling "wolf" for long time, and yet we see the wolf. That doesn't mean there is no wolf, it only means we are not good to timing the event based on fundamental reasons. But we do know it is really close this time. To predict to timing of an economy event or path is truly a daunting job. At the end of Clinton era, the experts were forecasting trillions of surplus, and in a few years, we are seeing the largest government deficit in human history, things can just go that wrong. However, it's better safe than sorry, to say at least. For people involves in RE speculation, I can only see, the risk is much larger now than before, the reward is much less now than before, so think twice on what you are going to do.

I think we will need a few months to see the true evidence of the bursting bubble and when we do see it, it will be too late for many people. If housing market in the coming spring season is worse or flat as this spring, then it might be too late for many people to sale. I've heard sellers are withdrawing selling and wish for a good coming year which truly a bad sign already, but we don't have the statistics to say what it's going to be. We will see. It is going to be a unforgettable drama, only comparable to the NASDAQ collapse. Some people call it Episode II of the same drama.

here is good news in NYC:

Prices Fall in Manhattan

As Housing Market Cools

By DANIELLE REED

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

October 4, 2005 12:44 p.m.

NEW YORK -- Housing market watchers can exhale. Prices in some of the nation's hottest markets are at least leveling off, and in some cases even coming down.

In New York, a report prepared by appraisal company Miller Samuel Inc. on behalf of real estate firm Prudential Douglas Elliman released Tuesday showed that average Manhattan apartment prices fell nearly 13% in the third quarter 2005 to $1.15 million from $1.32 million in the second quarter.

Housing stock is also staying on the market longer, the report showed, with the number of days it takes to sell an apartment increasing a month to 133 days from 102 days.

The report was confirmed by other research, including reports from two other real estate firms, Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property. These showed that average apartment prices in Manhattan were down 11% in the third quarter for co-ops to $1.04 million from $1.17 million in the second quarter, and down 10% for condominiums to $1.28 million from $1.42 million in the previous quarter.

Data released earlier in the week by real estate appraisal firm Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson Inc. showed that average Manhattan apartment prices for co-ops and condos south of 96th Street fell 3.9% to $1.09 million, the first time in two years the firm had seen a drop in prices. The decline followed a drop in overall demand, according to Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson managing director Michael Martin, as the number of sales dropped 33% to 1,031 from 1,528.

The Prudential Douglas Elliman report also showed a decline in sales, albeit more modest. In the third quarter, the number of sales dropped 8.4% to 1,997 from the prior quarter's total of 2,181, "as mixed economic news weakened demand," the firm said in a press release.

Not Just New York

The apparent slowing in the New York housing market followed signs of cooling off in markets across the country. The most recent national data have been mixed, while reports from specific West Coast markets have been pointing to a possible slowing of demand.

New home sales reported last week fell 9.9% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.24 million units in August, according to the Commerce Department. But the pace of existing home sales rose 2% in August to 7.29 million units, a near-record pace, according to the National Association of Realtors.

In San Francisco, the number of homes sold in August dropped 9.9% to 662 from 735 sold in the same month a year ago, though median prices still climbed a healthy 11.5% to $745,000, according to DataQuick Information Systems. In San Diego, the number of homes sold dropped 3.6% to 5,379 from 5,580 a year earlier, and the median price rose just 2.1% to $493,000.

With home prices appreciating routinely at a double digit pace for a couple of years in certain metropolitan markets, analysts have long predicted a slowdown would eventually take hold. In New York, prices "are going to reach a level that just can't be sustained," said Mr. Martin, the managing director at Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson.

Particularly with short and long-term interest rates heading higher, affordability may start to make buyers more resistant to high prices in the coming months, he said, at least in the under-$2 million market where buyers are more sensitive to changes in interest rates.

But so far, Mr. Martin said he doesn't see signs of a bubble bursting. More likely, he said, there will be "a soft landing," in which prices ease up a bit and then level off for a time.

Don 't know if jtian is here.

听起来是miat42us老大呀．久仰．小弟最近卖房比较郁闷，所以发发牢骚

经济问题很大

联邦政府估计是要往外挪人，而不是加人

本地新房盖的真不少，偶看着怕怕呀

http://www.cchere.net/article/534303

已经有很多不该赶潮流的美国人已经把房子砸手里了，

利率一涨，没有下一个冤大头来接，再过一段时间就只好割肉了，那时候就会雪崩。好在美国人对美国梦看得比破产重，这次破产了，不到20年后又是一条好汉。

美国的银行也牛，反正你还会成为好汉，还不出钱不要紧，连本带利负债额给你加上去，就是不逼你破产，只要国外资金进来，那些资金搁死就搁死吧，老头提一点利率，可以使外面的资金多进来一点，不过这招是不能一直使下去的，到最后那老头也该退休了。

看来我的粗体字都被读作论据了，失败啊。

这篇唐的正是质疑那位老大的房市繁荣永不变。昨天头一次去BBSCHINESE的房版，也没多看，就唐了一堆。后来再一看，这位简直是信奉房市繁荣的原教旨主义者，就差被我列为蓄意误导群众的不良房地产经济人了。我是美国中长期经济熊派理论的基本教义信徒，整个一个死对头。哈哈。(当然Fundamental 的因素要成为现实，

时机是很难说准的)

Xlin, 你是换房还是卖投资房，能不能问一下？不过往好里想，你卖的房肯定赚了不少，只是(可能)没卖在最高点。