- 发帖可能变空内容，邪门暂不知所以然
- 『稷下学宫』新认证方式，24年网站打算和努力目标
主题：04/06/2009 Market View -- 宁子
家园 04/06/2009 Market View SUMMARY:
- Downside open hands the sellers another opportunity, but they can't press their hand and market recovers most of its losses.
- Another downside Monday, but that has not been a bad thing.
- Slow economic day, but as expected, Treasury is threatening bank CEO's with removal if Treasury so desires.
- Some good tests are setting up some buys. Almost too nice a test. Is there something out there to upset the action?
Market pulls back, but resilience is again the operative word.
Futures fell into the bell and stocks fell at the open. Asia was positive and so was Europe, but as the European session wound down those indices reversed as the US futures were sloppy. Stocks and the indices gapped lower and sold off quickly, making new session lows into lunch.
What news prompted such lackluster performance? Over the weekend Geithner issued more threats to use his unconstitutional 'authority' to remove bank CEO's and management if the Executive Branch decided they were lacking for whatever reason. Expected, but still very unsettling every time our supposedly constitutional government is blatantly overrun by our own leaders. Sun, showing shades of Yahoo, refused the IBM offer, saying it was not enough money and wanting guarantees. Would you give them guarantees? How about 'I guarantee to pay $x for your company." Sounds very 'Yahooish' and that worked so well for that company. A famous bank analyst (Mayo) opined that loan losses would top Great Depression levels as he cut ratings to sell. His premise: bank loans are on average written down only 2% and thus have a long way to fall. Whatever; we all know results will be bad. As for the 'usual,' oil was down (51.16, -1.35), gold gapped lower yet again (870.60, -26.7), the dollar was a bit stronger (1.3422), and bond yields were mixed (0.94% 2 year, 2.93% 10 year).
As the east coast sat down to its lunch, however, the market hit a new low and turned, beginning an all-afternoon move higher. It was a bumpy ride. Stocks would advance and then give back 80% of the move before starting a new advance. It continued to make higher lows, however, and though it ran about 10 miles to gain 1, by the close the indices were at post-open highs, having cut the losses to less than 1% on the large cap indices. Indeed NASDAQ 100 lost just 0.23% thanks to gains by AAPL and RIMM, still celebrating the latter's earnings announced last Thursday after the close.
Not bad action given the rally into the session that took the indices up to next resistance and left them at a perfect point to test back. They did test back, and that was all it is. With the set up for the downside and the downgrading of financials and further attacks on private companies the market had what it needed to sell off if it wanted to. Sellers were very noncommittal, and thus when they could not close the deal on the downside the buyers slipped back in and picked up shares. Given it was Monday and Mondays of late have been ugly, not bad action at all.
One word, and it is not plastics: resilience. Earnings are coming, they are going to be similar to what you find in the toilet, yet the market continues to hold onto its gains even when it sells. Perhaps it is the case where earnings are so bad that investors figure all of the bad news is in. Then if there are any positives that surprise, e.g. RIMM, the rewards are grand. Historically, the more stocks run into earnings the more likely they won't see more of the same on the actual news. Perhaps the early earnings are solid and then the market takes a well-needed dip after additional gains.
TECHNICAL. Intraday the action was quite positive. The old negative, weak open then the recovery and rebound characteristic of more bullish markets. It was not a rocket shot back up; as noted, it was quite volatile as stocks rebounded off the lows. The indices did not make it to positive, a sure sign of strength, and volume was light. Thus the intraday action was on the bullish side but it was not a power move. Thus we were a bit hesitant to move into new or additional positions even with the rebound.
INTERNALS. Downside as you would expect with decliners leading -2:1. Volume lightened up on both NYSE and NASDAQ, and by quite a bit with 23% and 20% declines respectively. Thus there was no distribution on the downside day, but there was also no rush by a huge number of buyers as the market recovered. Lighter volume the past week during most of the move other than the Thursday surge. Volume is an issue as the indices bumped that next resistance. That rises questions as to the durability of that last leg higher, particularly with earnings at the threshold.
CHARTS. After bumping up at the next resistance level on Thursday and Friday, the indices took a pause. They were never in jeopardy of any major selloff, at least the kind we have grown accustomed to this past year. NASDAQ did undercut the 1600 level intraday but it also recovered and held above the February and December peaks. No issue with that. Similar action in the small caps (with the SP500 that is) as they could not move through that next resistance but bounced up off the lows and cut the losses. SOX lost 2% but it also bounced sharply off its low and easily held above the 2009 peaks though it gave up the early November 2008 peak. It barely cleared it the first time, so we are not going to quibble much with this test. Overall the indices paused after hitting resistance, selling off 2% or more, but then recovering to cut the losses below 1% on the large cap indices. That is about all you could really expect.
LEADERSHIP. Steel was up Friday and pretty much all of last week but it had to pause Monday. Would love to see steel step it up again. Same with the industrial machinery stocks. All are improved but in need of a bit of test to show the prior move was not just a flare gun shot, i.e. running up fast then burning out and falling to earth. Techs, chips, financials, retail, restaurants pretty much all of the recent leaders took a day off, and deservedly so. We expect a bit more of a pullback Tuesday, maybe Wednesday, and then we see how they bounce. Of course some are already in position to bounce (e.g. BRCM, BIDU), but another quick test would not hurt them at all. All in all leadership made some nice tests, just what you want to see.
家园 THE ECONOMY A day of no real economic news. Sure Geithner threatened bank executives with removal. That has huge constitutional and future ramifications for our country, but for the market it was pretty much expected. If GM's CEO can get punted for the money his company took it is not much of a stretch to see the bank execs with targets painted on their heads.
Indeed the week will be pretty light in terms of reports measuring economic activity. The reports that will be coming are the company earnings and even those will not be that important; it is the outlook after the crappiness that will guide our insight as to the economic progress this week.
家园 THE MARKET MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 40.93; +1.23
VXN: 41.56; +0.96
VXO: 40.3; -1.33
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; +0.13
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
This is a historical milestone in the making. Bulls are impressively low considering we are in general a very optimistic country. The few bulls is a positive indication because it means most everyone that is getting out is out and there is money on the sidelines. In other words the ammunition boxes are full and as the market recovers investors will start opening up the boxes and firing. Little by little they will be forced to put more money into the market and there will be some rushes higher in fear they are missing the train. You relish times when sentiment is so negative because it means some tremendous buys are setting up. This could indeed be the opportunity of a lifetime, and you take advantage of it by buying quality stocks and letting them work for you as long as they will. If we can hold them for years, great.
Bulls: 31.0%. A little rally and a climb in the bulls, up from 28.9% and jumping over the highs a month back at 29.7%. Still well below the 43.0%, the prior top of the recovery as the market rallied off the November low. A rise from 25.3% in December and quickly starting to fall once the market encountered the January selling. Bullishness bottomed on this leg lower at 21.3% in November 2008. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator. This is smashing that. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006, the last major round of selling ahead of this 2007 top, near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.
Bears: 38.0%. Quite the drop from 43.3% and 44.3% the prior week. The decline was slowing its fall from 47.2%, the peak for the run this year but no more. Hit the 34's on the lows, falling from 38.5% and 46.2% in mid-December. Still above the 35% level considered bullish for stocks. Bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment on this move. 35% is the level that historically indicates excessive pessimism. As with the bulls the jump in bears did its job after hitting 44.7% in the third week of March. Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). This is a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: -15.16 points (-0.93%) to close at 1606.71
Volume: 1.948B (-23.55%). Another session of low volume. Only two sessions in the past 7 have put in above average volume. That puts the run higher of late in a bit less dazzling light.
Up Volume: 626.206M (-1.513B)
Down Volume: 1.389B (+981.874M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.82 to 1
New Highs: 14 (+9)
New Lows: 7 (-118)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
Gapped lower to 1600, sold through it to the Thursday gap up low, then recovered to hold 1600 though it could not move to positive. Lower, below average volume so no distribution but no massive buying on the rebound. Very livable as it is a very normal pullback session. Normal, but highly unlikely sufficient in itself to set off another upside leg, particularly with the overall low volume and that gap higher last week. Some more testing back to the 10 day EMA (1559) and even better, the gap up point (1551) would be good backfilling to allow a run at the January peak (1665). To do that it needs to put in a more testing work.
SOX (-2.22%) gapped lower, tested near its 10 day EMA on the low, and rebounded nicely to cut its losses. Still a 2% loss, but it was 4% on the low. The move gave up the early November peak, but not sweating that for now as SOX has to test its move higher and this was very solid action.
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -7.02 points (-0.83%) to close at 835.48
NYSE Volume: 1.296B (-20.4%). Similar to NASDAQ, another below average volume session. Not bad given the selling and want to see it remain low as SP500 and company test back, but want to see it ramp up as any upside resumes.
Up Volume: 393.208M (-781.595M)
Down Volume: 891.833M (+461.386M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.25 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.86 to 1
New Highs: 3 (-27)
New Lows: 50 (-47)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP500 tested lower as well, gapping down (rather unusual) given the downgrades of the banks. It sold off through the 90 day SMA (828) and then rebounded to slice 12 points off its losses. Love to see an index take back more than half its gains from the lows with extended, afternoon rebounds. This keeps SP500 below 850 resistance, but it needs some rest after running to that level, and the fact the banks did not roll over into the septic tank after the famous downgrades is a positive. SP500 likely needs some time here at the October closing low as that is where the selling started to put on the brakes, and we will see how it holds on the testing here as to whether it is going to be a shallow lateral move or a deeper dip.
SP600 (-1.81%) sold to its 90 day SMA as well and then reversed as well to slice its loses. Still below resistance at the October closing low (just as SP500), but still in decent shape after that renewed strong break higher last week.
DJ30
Moving laterally for the second session, holding at 8000 and the bottom of the late January/early February lateral consolidation range. That also has it below the October low that SP500 is bumping. Yes that means DJ30 is by definition a laggard on the NYSE, but it is trying to reform, dry out, etc. It is doing what it has to do, i.e. taking it one day at a time as it works laterally and tries to hold its gains and set up a try at those October lows up at 8175.
Stats: -41.74 points (-0.52%) to close at 7975.85
Volume: 247M shares Monday versus 308M shares Friday. Suffering 'tradus lightus' as are the other indices, but on a test that is okay. Need to see more upside volume when the move resumes to show some staying power.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
家园 TUESDAY Consumer credit at 2:00ET is the only scheduled economic data. With all the secrecy surrounding the bank 'stress testing' and the government taking over businesses, however, there could be bombshells dropped at any time. The market looks good but the government bombs could fall close by at any time.
Of course there is also earnings season, and those bombs are very large in some instances. RIMM dropped a friendly bomb. We have yet to receive a lot of negative warnings of late; many were dropped two weeks back. They will come, however; 'have the earnings season and they will come.' As bad as expectations are there will be misses and that will hurt those stocks; how it impacts others with collateral damage remains to be seen. The market has risen into earnings and that means stocks are more susceptible than not to losing ground on any kind of worse than expected news. It is interesting that there have been few additional warnings thus far; maybe the expectations and guidance was bad enough, and if that is the case investors could be quite pleased. Why? Because when expectations in a nasty downslide are not topped to the downside, that often means that there is a new level of certainty to results and we all know that the market likes certainty even if it is bad. Yes you find out your blind date is just not your type at all (being nice here), yet there is certainty. You can move on. You take that drink of milk from the back of fridge you just are not quite sure about and sure enough it is sour. Nasty yes, but certainty as you satisfyingly pour it out (or feed it to your neighbor's cat that sleeps on your car).
So, we are looking for some certainty. Unfortunately that is not going to come by Tuesday. Thus in the meantime we are looking for more of a nice test by the leaders that result in potential buy points. Recall that many fine stocks gapped away from us Thursday and did not come back Friday. We also have some great positions that are testing as well. All are fertile opportunities for even short term runs higher ahead of their earnings, and if we see results rewarded we can see how some of our stocks are treated as well.
Monday we already saw some stocks looking very interesting. As noted above, BRCM, BIDU, CME, SCHN and others are pretty interesting right now. A bit more testing Tuesday and even part of Wednesday and others crowd into the picture. Pick the ones you like the best and when they move make your move and ride any pre-earnings run we get, then decide if you want to book part or all of the gain ahead of earnings. If we are still in a time when earnings results are getting rewarded we can ride them. At some point, however, the bloom wilts a bit and the reward either lessens or turns to punishment. We will keep tabs on that as we move through this season. Of course that presupposes that there will be reward; RIMM suggests that but it is just one early report.
There is still something nagging us a bit. The action is solid, i.e. the selling on light volume and then the rebound. Great action to start a test. It is just a start, however. Many times we have seen good set ups in this bear market shape up as stocks pulled back and they just kept pulling back more and more until the good set ups became selloffs. The point: don't assume this will just be a pullback to fill the gap and then off to the upside again. Let's see the moves hold, maybe nibble on some partial positions, then see if we get that nice higher volume bounce.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1606.71
Resistance:
1620 from the early 2001 low
1644 from August 2003
The January closing low at 1653
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
1603 is the December peak
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1587 is the March 2009 high
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
The 10 day EMA at 1559
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
The 50 day EMA at 1497
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
The 50 day SMA at 1473
1440 is the January 2009 closing low
1434 is the January intraday low
1428 is the mid-November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1316 is the November 2008 closing low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday
1262 from July 2002
1192 is the July 2002 intraday low
1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low
S&P 500: Closed at 835.48
Resistance:
839 is the early October 2008 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
833 is the March 2009 peak
The 90 day SMA at 828
818 is the early November 2008 low
The 10 day EMA at 816
815 is the early December 2008 low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
The 50 day EMA at 802
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
722 is a December 1996 low
681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing
665 from August 1996
656-654 from January, April 1996
607-05 from November 1995
Dow: Closed at 7975.85
Resistance:
The 90 day SMA at 8001
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7909 is the early January low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7867 is the early February low
The 10 day EMA at 7782
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 7678
The 18 day EMA at 7647
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
7449 is the November 2008 intraday low
7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.
7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market
7115 is the February 2009 closing low
7008 from February 1997 closing peak
6528 is the November 1996 peak
6489 from December 1996 closing peak
6356 is the April 1997 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
April 7 - Tuesday
February Consumer Credit (14:00): -$1.5B expected, $1.8B prior
April 8 - Wednesday
February Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -0.6% expected, -0.7% prior
Crude Oil Inventories, 04/03 (10:30): +2.84M prior
April 9 - Thursday
March Export Prices ex-aq. (8:30): 0.1% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, March (8:30): -0.6% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 04/04 (8:30): 699K prior
Trade Balance, February (8:30): -$36.5B expected, -$36.0B prior
April 10 - Friday
March Treasury Budget (14:00): -$157.0B expected, -$48.2B prior
- 复 TUESDAY
家园 THE PLAYS: Upside: Getting some pullbacks taking shape.
Play Date: 04/06/2009
AMT (American Tower--$32.69; -1.70; optionable): Telecom towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
After Hours: $32.33
EARNINGS: 02/26/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice surge last week off the 50 day EMA (30.05) that broke it over the highs in AMT's 9 week base. The surge took AMT over the 200 day SMA (33.09) and Monday it was testing, tapping at the 18 day EMA (31.33) on the low and rebounding to hold the highs in the base from late January and late March. Didn't take back all of the losses but a good rebound to hold the breakout. May take another day or so to finish the test but want to be ready to move in as AMT bounces off its test and continues the move higher.
Volume: 5.414M Avg Volume: 4.416M
BUY POINT: $33.42 Volume=6M Target=$39.94 Stop=$31.28
POSITION: AMT GT - July $32.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amt.html
Play Date: 04/06/2009
CFL (Brinks Home Security--$23.88; +0.29; optionable): Security systems, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cfl.html
EARNINGS: 02/18/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle. We have looked at CFL before but now it is setting up a bit better. A new issued last October, this is CFL's first really good-looking base, a 9 week pattern formed using the January low as support for the bottom. It rallied back up mid-March and has moved laterally since, bouncing up and down over the 50 day EMA (22.36) in a $3 trading range that has formed the handle to the pattern, the shakeout right before the breakout. The three week handle is making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (23.40), and that often precedes the breakout move. Time to be patient and let CFL show us the breakout from its base that moves it on toward a new high.
Volume: 250.255K Avg Volume: 504.16K
BUY POINT: $24.39 Volume=700K Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.74
POSITION: CFL FX - June $22.50c (low OI, Wide spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cfl.html
Play Date: 04/06/2009
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$33.68; -1.57; optionable): Russian Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
After Hours: $33.44
EARNINGS: 03/11/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. Looking at MBT again as it tests back after gapping higher last Thursday out of a 12 week cup with handle base. The move took MBT to a new post November high and after this test back toward the 10 day EMA (32.15) MBT will be ready to move back upside and give us a nice entry point.
Volume: 1.652M Avg Volume: 2.37M
BUY POINT: $34.42 Volume=3M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.11
POSITION: MBT FF - June $30c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mbt.html
Play Date: 04/06/2009
OTEX (Open Text--$33.64; +0.06; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
After Hours: $33.42
EARNINGS: Last week of April (last announced 01/28/2009)
STATUS: OTEX has formed something of a cup with handle the past 8 weeks after a much larger 5 month base that broke higher in late January but fizzled. Made a higher low in this base, setting up a stronger run higher. The past week and a half it has tested back, Friday tapping at the 50 day EMA (32.55) on the low and rebounding. Nice flag pattern of sorts in the handle. Volume was up to start April, and despite a distribution session Wednesday, there was solid upside trade Thursday and Friday. Monday it pulled back and tapped toward the 10 day EMA (32.15) on the low and bounced. That rising volume on an orderly pullback tells us to get ready for a possible break higher this week.
Volume: 253.136K Avg Volume: 538.14K
BUY POINT: $34.12 Volume=825K Target=$38.95 Stop=$32.51
POSITION: QFT HF - Aug. $30c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/otex.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/06/2009
CELG (Celgene--$42.31; +0.16; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
After Hours: $42.31
EARNINGS: 01/29/2009
STATUS: Put. After the nasty gap lower Wednesday, a gap that took CELG below its ugly March low (39.32), CELG rebounded Friday to Monday, rallying up to a down trendline from the stock's peak in August 2008. Volume has declined on the rebound, coming in at average Monday. Looking for CELG to fail in its rebound and turn back down again, giving us an entry point for a downside play. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 7.343M Avg Volume: 6.74M
BUY POINT: $41.87 Volume=8M Target=$38.75 Stop=$43.31
POSITION: LQH QI - May $45p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/celg.html