主题：04/06/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Consumer credit at 2:00ET is the only scheduled economic data. With all the secrecy surrounding the bank 'stress testing' and the government taking over businesses, however, there could be bombshells dropped at any time. The market looks good but the government bombs could fall close by at any time.

Of course there is also earnings season, and those bombs are very large in some instances. RIMM dropped a friendly bomb. We have yet to receive a lot of negative warnings of late; many were dropped two weeks back. They will come, however; 'have the earnings season and they will come.' As bad as expectations are there will be misses and that will hurt those stocks; how it impacts others with collateral damage remains to be seen. The market has risen into earnings and that means stocks are more susceptible than not to losing ground on any kind of worse than expected news. It is interesting that there have been few additional warnings thus far; maybe the expectations and guidance was bad enough, and if that is the case investors could be quite pleased. Why? Because when expectations in a nasty downslide are not topped to the downside, that often means that there is a new level of certainty to results and we all know that the market likes certainty even if it is bad. Yes you find out your blind date is just not your type at all (being nice here), yet there is certainty. You can move on. You take that drink of milk from the back of fridge you just are not quite sure about and sure enough it is sour. Nasty yes, but certainty as you satisfyingly pour it out (or feed it to your neighbor's cat that sleeps on your car).

So, we are looking for some certainty. Unfortunately that is not going to come by Tuesday. Thus in the meantime we are looking for more of a nice test by the leaders that result in potential buy points. Recall that many fine stocks gapped away from us Thursday and did not come back Friday. We also have some great positions that are testing as well. All are fertile opportunities for even short term runs higher ahead of their earnings, and if we see results rewarded we can see how some of our stocks are treated as well.

Monday we already saw some stocks looking very interesting. As noted above, BRCM, BIDU, CME, SCHN and others are pretty interesting right now. A bit more testing Tuesday and even part of Wednesday and others crowd into the picture. Pick the ones you like the best and when they move make your move and ride any pre-earnings run we get, then decide if you want to book part or all of the gain ahead of earnings. If we are still in a time when earnings results are getting rewarded we can ride them. At some point, however, the bloom wilts a bit and the reward either lessens or turns to punishment. We will keep tabs on that as we move through this season. Of course that presupposes that there will be reward; RIMM suggests that but it is just one early report.

There is still something nagging us a bit. The action is solid, i.e. the selling on light volume and then the rebound. Great action to start a test. It is just a start, however. Many times we have seen good set ups in this bear market shape up as stocks pulled back and they just kept pulling back more and more until the good set ups became selloffs. The point: don't assume this will just be a pullback to fill the gap and then off to the upside again. Let's see the moves hold, maybe nibble on some partial positions, then see if we get that nice higher volume bounce.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1606.71

Resistance:

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

The January closing low at 1653

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

1603 is the December peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1587 is the March 2009 high

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

The 10 day EMA at 1559

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

The 50 day EMA at 1497

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day SMA at 1473

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 835.48

Resistance:

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

833 is the March 2009 peak

The 90 day SMA at 828

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 10 day EMA at 816

815 is the early December 2008 low

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day EMA at 802

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7975.85

Resistance:

The 90 day SMA at 8001

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7909 is the early January low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

The 10 day EMA at 7782

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

The 50 day EMA at 7678

The 18 day EMA at 7647

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 7 - Tuesday

February Consumer Credit (14:00): -$1.5B expected, $1.8B prior

April 8 - Wednesday

February Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -0.6% expected, -0.7% prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 04/03 (10:30): +2.84M prior

April 9 - Thursday

March Export Prices ex-aq. (8:30): 0.1% prior

Import Prices ex-oil, March (8:30): -0.6% prior

Initial Jobless Claims, 04/04 (8:30): 699K prior

Trade Balance, February (8:30): -$36.5B expected, -$36.0B prior

April 10 - Friday

March Treasury Budget (14:00): -$157.0B expected, -$48.2B prior