- 程序有所改变。发帖如还有问题请报告
- 【征集】西西河的经济学，及清流措施，需要主动参与者，『稷下学宫』新认证方式，24年网站打算和努力目标
主题：03/31/2009 Market View -- 宁子
家园 03/31/2009 Market View SUMMARY:
- Market pulls out an end of quarter rally, but SP500 falls short of retaking 800.
- Midwest manufacturing faltering in its attempt to turn the corner.
- Consumer Despondency report ticks higher . . . from the bottom of the barrel.
- Market at a potential transition point as SP500 struggles at resistance and earnings approach.
A rally, but it falls short on the close.
There was not much pre-market to lend itself to a renewed run upside. No great earnings news. Indeed we got a preview of the crappiness to come as LEN reported a big loss and IR cut its guidance. There were not great upgrades. To the contrary FCX, a market leader that that led stocks higher from the December low, was downgraded to sell. That on top of the MS 'sell the US' missive issued Monday. You can almost picture the MS analysts running out the door shrieking 'sell, sell, sell' similar to Randolph Duke in 'Trading Places.' More jobs cut as KLAC in chip equipment announced a 10% workforce reduction. Don't know when they are effective but maybe they were helping some of the Catholics at the company come up with some new Lenten vows such as not to work as much. Case/Schiller reports housing prices hit another new low. But . . . Japan outlined a new stimulus plan. Futures were up. Did Japan offset all of the negatives? That's a good one.
Despite no great news, futures were up on the heels of the Monday selloff. Stocks gapped higher with financials leading the way. They weathered the weaker Chicago PMI and Consumer lack of confidence. After that early move higher, however, the indices couldn't do much with it as SP500 bumped up to resistance at 800. The fact that it did not sell off immediately after the gap open was, as noted in an early alert, something of a moral victory, but those don't make a lot of money. A three hour lateral move ensued. Techs then caught a bid that broke things free to the upside. SP500 moved to 801; NASDAQ recovered 1500 and rallied to 1555. Happy days. The only real nonparticipant were the semiconductors, and they were notably lagging.
Despite the chips the indices were moving well, looking good, feeling great. Then on the last turn toward the finish line SP500 cramped. We were taking positions off as the last hour got underway as it was quarter end with earnings season peeking over the fence. Others started to do the same. We took marginal positions off the table to preserve the gain, letting others in great shape continue on. The market kept giving up its gains; the bids had been pulled. NASDAQ closed at 1529, still well above the 1500-1515 support range. SP500, however, was hardly that cooperative. It could not hold 805, then it gave up 800. Good rally then gave up big chunks of the gain. Disappointing to end the quarter giving back more than half the session gains after a pretty nice rally. The move left many feeling good that the market rebounded right back, but we were using it to sell into given the quarter end and earnings approaching.
TECHNICAL. Intraday the action was not bad . . . until the last hour. Stocks gapped higher, consolidated just below resistance, then charged on through. Just they way you draw it up on the chalkboard. Then the bids dried up, the move faltered. Gains on the day were split the hard way, i.e. the indices gave back half or more of their moves. Not a great finish to what was a very decent rally in the face of the Monday selling. Showed some guts then got the runs.
INTERNALS. Breadth was decent though it belied the market move as it lagged Monday's downside breadth (-6.4:1 NYSE Monday, +3:1 Tuesday). Some divergence to the downside's favor. Volume however was up on both exchanges, almost reaching average on NYSE. NASDAQ was not that close to average, but it was heading toward that way. Wow. Almost average. That is like saying you almost got a C on a test. Something to be proud of indeed. In other words, volume was up but it was hardly an affirmation of the upside move.
CHARTS. A rally that felt good, but after the dust cleared didn't change anything. Indeed, it somewhat confirmed some issues SP500 is having. SP500 topped the Monday high, hitting 810, a nice move past resistance. NASDAQ filled the Monday gap lower, clearing 1550 on the high. Couldn't hold it. The gains folded up in the last hour. Sure they did not turn negative but SP500 closed below the 800 level and did so on rising trade. Not a clear reversal form the gains but SP500 is building another roadblock at the 800ish level that it will have to knock down yet again. SOX and even NASDAQ 100 remain the strongest patterns. SOX gave back its intraday move as well, but it also showed a hammer doji on the 10 day EMA, right at the February peak. The market needs SOX to continue its leadership move, and it is in position to do it. NASDAQ 100 is holding its 10 day EMA and it is in position to move higher as well. Some stalwarts looking solid, but earnings season has its way of upsetting stock charts.
LEADERSHIP. Chips notably lagged Tuesday, posting a sub-1% gain when the other indices easily topped 1%. That they did not participate was an eye catcher. Retails were out in front once more but they also gave back some nice gains. Commodities struggled again though the lower dollar gave them a bit of life. There is some retrenching and some extended runs grasping for the next move here at quarter end, but that does not mean they are at the ropes end. There are stocks still in great position to move even as some early and recent leaders are a bit stretched. That is the nice thing about a market with more than one or two leadership groups; it finds new leaders to break higher as the prior leaders make the tests they need to recover and consolidate for the next run. On the day there were some solid moves from e.g. SNDA, AMZN, and QCOM though even these gave back some of their gains in that last hour.
家园 THE ECONOMY Windy City manufacturing getting blown around.
Midwest manufacturing has surpassed the 2000-2001 downturn. Chicago is showing some issues, unable to put together a couple of upside moves over the past five months. It jumped to 35.1 in December but then faltered and fell to 33.3 in January. Back up to 34.2 in February only to report Tuesday a tumble to 31.4. That is the lowest of this cycle and indeed, a 29 year low.
Chicago is an important region and its inability to put together any sustained turn as some of the other regions have (though two improving numbers well below 50 are hardly what you would call a 'turn') raises the concern that the recent across the board improvement in economic data may just be a blip higher in a continued longer term malaise. The index is a bit volatile, i.e. bouncing up to improvement and then down to lower levels, and volatility is a sign of an attempted change. Time to show some change, however, versus just blowing back and forth in the Windy City's streets.
Consumer Despondency, f.k.a. Consumer Confidence, remains at shockingly low levels.
March confidence rose to 26.0 from an upwardly revised 25.3 (25.0 prior). Alright, confidence is waxing a bit. A couple of issues. Actually a lot more but no point in going into all of them.
First, this 26.0 reading failed to meet expectations of 28.0. It was better but it was not that much better. Second, this 0.7 move was after a 12 point dive from January to February. The 'rebound' was statistically insignificant. For reference, Confidence measured 44.7 in November, 37.4 in January, and then 25.3 in February. Massive drops to start the year even with all of the horrors that arose from September to December. Not a lot of confidence in the plans, budgets, stimulus, company governance, etc. initiatives from the new Administration. Confidence was down; no doubt about that. It has utterly crumbled, however, this year.
While you don't want to put too much stock in confidence readings given that consumers will respond to a questionnaire in one way and then act another. What you have to look at, however, is the relative position of the number itself in its historical lifespan. These levels are as low as you see. Readings in the fifties historically indicate the economy is well on the way to recession. These numbers are so low they are almost statistically meaningless. Consumers are despondent and they will stay despondent long after the economy starts to recover. Consumer sentiment readings do not lead the market; changes in sentiment tend to, ultimately, confirm the economic moves. Of course the stock market and indeed even the economy have taken off long before consumers feel confident enough in their jobs and homes to start strutting around.
So confidence sucks. Again, that is no surprise given our government is cramming trillions of dollars in spending down our throats with bills no one but the drafter has read. It is very telling that confidence imploded when the 'stimulus' bill was crammed down on us and the unknown as well as known ramifications ahead.
家园 THE MARKET MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 44.14; -1.4
VXN: 44.2; -0.67
VXO: 44.4; -0.81
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.81; -0.33
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
This is a historical milestone in the making. Bulls are impressively low considering we are in general a very optimistic country. The few bulls is a positive indication because it means most everyone that is getting out is out and there is money on the sidelines. In other words the ammunition boxes are full and as the market recovers investors will start opening up the boxes and firing. Little by little they will be forced to put more money into the market and there will be some rushes higher in fear they are missing the train. You relish times when sentiment is so negative because it means some tremendous buys are setting up. This could indeed be the opportunity of a lifetime, and you take advantage of it by buying quality stocks and letting them work for you as long as they will. If we can hold them for years, great.
Bulls: 28.9%. A fraction more bulls (28.4% last week) but not really commensurate with the market gains. Not a lot of belief in it just yet. 29.7% three weeks back, down from that 'optimism' Well down from 43.0%, the current top of the recovery as the market rallied off the November low. A rise from 25.3% in December and quickly starting to fall once the market encountered the January selling. Bullishness bottomed on this leg lower at 21.3% in November 2008. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator. This is smashing that. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006, the last major round of selling ahead of this 2007 top, near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.
Bears: 43.3% versus 44.3% the prior week. Slowing the decline from 47.2% as here as well there were not many believers in the run higher. Still showing plenty of worry. 47.2% is the peak for the run this year but is still below the December and October peaks. Hit the 34's on the lows, falling from 38.5% and 46.2% in mid-December. Still above the 35% level considered bullish for stocks, but as with bulls, still well below the level considered bearish for stocks. Bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment on this move. 35% is the level that historically indicates excessive pessimism. As with the bulls the jump in bears did its job after hitting 44.7% in the third week of March. Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). This is a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +26.79 points (+1.78%) to close at 1528.59
Volume: 2.081B (+6%). A gain in volume but still well below average so no real indication of the market strength.
Up Volume: 1.596B (+1.302B)
Down Volume: 533.242M (-1.193B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.15 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.16 to 1
New Highs: 13 (+8)
New Lows: 15 (-16)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
Gapped higher, rallied well, gave up half the move. Not terrible action, but not the kind that takes NASDAQ to 1600 immediately. Something of a reverse head and shoulders attempting to set up as NASDAQ tries to put in a higher low above the 50 day EMA (1480). NASDAQ sold back half its gain to the close but it held over the support near 1500. In position to move higher but appears to be waiting on earnings to make the next definitive move.
SOX (+0.64%) showed a hammer doji on the candlestick chart Tuesday, holding the 10 day EMA just below the top of the 5 month trading range. It is testing the Thursday breakout move and it needs to hold in this range and then continue the breakout run. Market needs the chips to step back up.
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +10.34 points (+1.31%) to close at 797.87
NYSE Volume: 1.639B (+8.41%). Volume rallied but as with NASDAQ, it could not make it to average. Not a lot of power behind this move right now.
Up Volume: 1.257B (+1.183B)
Down Volume: 364.315M (-1.07B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.09 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 6.39 to 1
New Highs: 7 (-1)
New Lows: 52 (-14)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
Rallied through 800 and 805 up to 811 but sold back to the 50 day EMA on the close. Not devastating action as SP500 is still in the game to make a higher low but you have to watch that Monday gap lower that broke the uptrend off the March low. That in itself is not fatal either given the move up was in a tight range and that such a steep move cannot sustain itself and is tested. If successful it creates a new trendline off the test of near support. Indeed, SP500 is testing the 18 day EMA and holding for now, an important support point after a break higher if a new trend is going to form. The financials led Tuesday, bouncing back nicely. If they continue to improve, the market continues to improve.
SP600 (+1.65%) showed the same action, i.e. the surge higher, the giveback, the close at the 50 day EMA. Expecting some consolidation here as the market tries to hold the gains and set up the ramp to the next run higher.
DJ30
The blue chips posted up at the November closing low (7552) and held again, bouncing through the 50 day EMA but unable to hold all of it. Volume was up, but alas, below volume as well. Cracked the up trendline off the March low on the Monday selling, but similar to SP500, it is holding the 18 day EMA, a near support level that it should hold and rebound from if it is going to continue a strong rally. It can still come back toward 7250 and keep the rally intact.
Stats: +86.9 points (+1.16%) to close at 7608.92
Volume: 399M shares Tuesday versus 383M shares Monday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
家园 WEDNESDAY ADP Employment, ISM, Pending home sales, construction spending. Some heavy hitters are up in preparation for the Friday jobs report as well as earnings warnings season and the first early bird earnings reports.
There is so much going on that, despite overall positives in leadership and the market in general, it is time to be careful. We are letting some strong upside positions run but with earnings even a good run higher becomes more of a gamble than a solid edge where you are playing a strong trend. Now earnings can work either way, i.e. bullish or bearish, given whether the market is ready to make a major shift or just a more modest interim move. If the market rallies up into earnings or sold off in advance either situation can make a difference as how the earnings are received. Overall it is still a stock to stock issue.
The market is up into earnings and the recent give back was not really that severe to change the upside bias. Now expectations are universally in the toilet so there could easily be some upside mileage on some better than expected results. You can see there are some loggerheads here: the uptrend of the March low is a big percentage move versus the terrible results expected and a possible 'it cannot get any worse than this' attitude that results in some buying. There is the flip side as well demonstrated after hours Tuesday when APOL, expected to post solid results, did just that but was knocked around a bit at first.
We will see how earnings start to play out but that does not mean we are going to stick our necks out too far on a lot of positions heading toward earnings. That means we may miss out on some good moves but we can deal with that. We have banked some great moves already in this run and if there is a surge on earnings that changes the near term character there will be a test of that move and tests are always the best places to get in.
That takes us back to the transition aspect of the current market. Big run off the lows, testing that move a bit with SP500 and the financials unable to cleanly break resistance. They could surge right on up from here without looking back, and if so we will get entry points as new leaders step up and continuing leaders test and resume their rallies.
What we are really looking at is an SP500 test back toward the November low near 750 that holds. That would likely set a good bottom for a real surge back up that clears the 875 congestion level on SP500 and takes it into the 900 to 1000 range. That is why we have been buttoning up gain on marginal positions and still look at downside possibilities to play a move lower to that next level and then see what kind of rebound is offered. Earnings could play a big role in a test; even with very low expectations, the market run to this point sets it up for a deeper test.
These are the possibilities. The market is at a key inflection point and it behooves us to protect what we have and look for opportunity to play stocks that are at inflection points themselves whichever way they break, take some nice gain, and then see how the market responds to that break. Thus we will continue to take gain off the table on runs but continue looking for opportunity both upside and downside and see which side wins out near term, take our plays that way, then let the dust settle and play the trend that emerges.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1528.59
Resistance:
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1587 is the March 2009 high
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1603 is the December peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1644 from August 2003
The January closing low at 1653
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
The 18 day EMA at 1483
The 50 day EMA at 1479
The 50 day SMA at 1463
1440 is the January 2009 closing low
1434 is the January intraday low
1428 is the mid-November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1316 is the November 2008 closing low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday
1262 from July 2002
1192 is the July 2002 intraday low
1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low
S&P 500: Closed at 797.87
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 797
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
815 is the early December 2008 low
818 is the early November 2008 low
The 90 day SMA at 827
833 is the March 2009 peak
839 is the early October 2008 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
The 18 day EMA at 785
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
722 is a December 1996 low
681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing
665 from August 1996
656-654 from January, April 1996
607-05 from November 1995
Dow: Closed at 7608.92
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 7634
7694 is the February intraday low
7702 is the July 2002 low
7867 is the early February low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7909 is the early January low
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
The 90 day SMA at 8004
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
The 18 day EMA at 7482
7449 is the November 2008 intraday low
7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.
7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market
7115 is the February 2009 closing low
7008 from February 1997 closing peak
6528 is the November 1996 peak
6489 from December 1996 closing peak
6356 is the April 1997 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
March 31 - Tuesday
March Consumer Confidence (9:00): 26.0 actual versus 28.0 expected, 25.3 prior (revised from 25.0)
S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index, January (9:00): -18.97% actual versus - 18.6% expected, 18.55% prior
Chicago PMI, March (9:45): 31.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.2 prior
April 01 - Wednesday
March ADP Employment Change (8:15): -663K expected, -697K prior
ISM Index, March (10:00): 36.0 expected, 35.8 prior
Construction Spending, February (10:00): -1.9% expected, -3.3% prior
Pending Home Sales, February (10:00): 0.0% expected, -7.7% prior
Crude Oil Inventories, 3/27 (10:00): +3.3M prior
Auto Sales, March (14:00): 2.9M prior
Truck Sales, March (14:00): 3.5M prior
April 02 - Thursday
3/28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 653K expected, NA prior
Factor Orders, February (10:00): -0.3% expected, -1.9% prior
April 03 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, March (8:30): -656K expected, -651K prior
Unemployment Rate, March (8:30): 8.5% expected, 8.1% prior
March Average Workweek (8:30): 33.3 expected, 33.3 prior
Hourly Earnings, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
ISM Services, March (10:00): 42.0 expected, 41.6 prior
家园 THE PLAYS: Upside:
Play Date: 03/31/2009
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$246.39; +11.97; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
After Hours: $244.90
EARNINGS: 04/23/2009
STATUS: Flag. CME surged out of an 11 week cup base mid-March, moving to 265 on the high just over a week back. It is testing, selling to the 18 day EMA Monday then gapping back up over the 10 day EMA (238) Tuesday. Nice, relatively tight flag pattern here, holding over the December highs, the top of the base. Low volume the past three sessions in this consolidation, and we are just going to let it show us the break over the upper down trendline in the flag on some volume to show us the buy point.
Volume: 1.309M Avg Volume: 1.581M
BUY POINT: $248.88 Volume=2M Target=$274.57 Stop=$236.71
POSITION: CME FQ - June $250c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cme.html
Play Date: 03/31/2009
MAA (Mid-America Apartment--$30.83; +2.37; optionable): Residential REIT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/maa.html
After Hours: $30.83
EARNINGS: 05/07/2009
STATUS: Trend reversal. After peaking in July 2008 MAA was screaming 'mamaaaa' all the way down to November. It bounced but ran into the trendline and fall again, sliding down into March where it matched the November low. It broke higher the second week of March, clearing the down trendline on strong volume. Nice rally to 32.50 and then started the current lateral attest, holding the 50 day EMA (29.19) as it makes the move. Some very strong upside moves on some huge volume spikes that we call 'get ready' spikes that tell us to get ready for the move higher. Another big spike Tuesday as MAA moved through the 90 day SMA. Ready to move in as it continues the move higher. A lot of buying here.
Volume: 1.401M Avg Volume: 850.91K
BUY POINT: $31.18 Volume=1.1M Target=$37.95 Stop=$29.12
POSITION: MAA FF - June $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/maa.html
Play Date: 03/31/2009
RFMD (RF Micro Devices--$1.33; -0.01; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rfmd.html
After Hours: $1.34
EARNINGS: Last week of April (last announced 01/27/2009)
STATUS: Cup w/handle. An interesting play not in its pattern but in the price. This is a pattern seen setting up in many stocks as RFMD forms an 8 week cup with handle. It broke sharply higher last week on strong volume and has moved laterally this week on lower and lower trade, holding the gains as the 10 day EMA (1.21) rises to meet it. That is often what pushes a stock to its next move higher in the breakout. Solid money flow and plenty of room to move up to the 200 day SMA (2.05) for a 30%ish gain.
Volume: 2.56M Avg Volume: 2.995M
BUY POINT: $1.48 Volume=4.5M Target=$1.95 Stop=$1.19
POSITION: - Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rfmd.html
Play Date: 03/31/2009
SY (Sybase--$30.29; -0.23; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sy.html
After Hours: $30.29
EARNINGS: Last week of April (Last announced 01/28/2009)
STATUS: Pennant. Broke out of a 5.5 month cup with handle mid-March, gapping over the February peak on very strong volume. It rallied on up to 31.38 on the peak and is now testing that move, forming a short pennant on low volume as it holds its move. Excellent money flow is surging higher. Going to be patient and wait for this solid leader to continue its breakout with a surge out of this pennant.
Volume: 1.773M Avg Volume: 1.585M
BUY POINT: $30.91 Volume=2M Target=$35.94 Stop=$29.69
POSITION: SY FF - June $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sy.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/31/2009
APA (Apache--$64.09; +0.63; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apa.html
After Hours: $63.88
EARNINGS: 04/30/2009
STATUS: Put. Trending lower since mid-2008. APA rallied off a small double bottom to start March, moving up to the 90 day SMA at 70. It peaked and has gapped lower Friday and Monday. Tried to recover Tuesday, but ran into resistance at 65 and stalled, showing a doji. Looking for APA to continue lower here after making this lower high at resistance. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 3.755M Avg Volume: 5.704M
BUY POINT: $63.21 Volume=6M Target=$57.21 Stop=$65.61
POSITION: APA QM - May $65p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apa.html
Play Date: 03/31/2009
MCK (McKesson--$35.04; -1.08; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mck.html
After Hours: $34.95
EARNINGS: Third week of April (last announced 01/26/2009)
STATUS: Put. In deep, in deep. Formed a rounded top January to early March then crashed support at 40 second week of the month. It has worked laterally the past two weeks in a very flat range below the 10 day EMA (36.21). Unable to move higher at all, showing the sellers sitting on it. Stronger, above average volume Tuesday, the first in two weeks, as MCK broke lower on an upside session. Money flow is heading lower ahead of price. Looks ready for another collapse. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 4.884M Avg Volume: 3.625M
BUY POINT: $34.76 Volume=5M Target=$32.05 Stop=$36.31
POSITION: MCK QG - May $35p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mck.html
Play Date: 03/31/2009
MDVN (Medivation--$18.27; +0.08; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdvn.html
After Hours: $18.27
EARNINGS: 03/16/2009
STATUS: Downside Flag. MDVN collapsed in late February, breaking down through several support levels but held support at 14. It has recovered since along with the market, moving back up to the 200 day SMA (19.03) resistance level that is coincident with the October lows and the January/February consolidation. Looking for that resistance to stall the move out and send MDVN down through the 50 day EMA (17.83) and the bottom trendline of its flag channel. A move to the initial target lands a 42%ish gain. It can go on down to 14 and if it is falling sharply, we will let it.
Volume: 264.326K Avg Volume: 292.823K
BUY POINT: $17.66 Volume=350K Target=$15.11 Stop=$19.11
POSITION: QMD QD - May $20p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mdvn.html