主题：03/31/2009 Market View -- 宁子

ADP Employment, ISM, Pending home sales, construction spending. Some heavy hitters are up in preparation for the Friday jobs report as well as earnings warnings season and the first early bird earnings reports.

There is so much going on that, despite overall positives in leadership and the market in general, it is time to be careful. We are letting some strong upside positions run but with earnings even a good run higher becomes more of a gamble than a solid edge where you are playing a strong trend. Now earnings can work either way, i.e. bullish or bearish, given whether the market is ready to make a major shift or just a more modest interim move. If the market rallies up into earnings or sold off in advance either situation can make a difference as how the earnings are received. Overall it is still a stock to stock issue.

The market is up into earnings and the recent give back was not really that severe to change the upside bias. Now expectations are universally in the toilet so there could easily be some upside mileage on some better than expected results. You can see there are some loggerheads here: the uptrend of the March low is a big percentage move versus the terrible results expected and a possible 'it cannot get any worse than this' attitude that results in some buying. There is the flip side as well demonstrated after hours Tuesday when APOL, expected to post solid results, did just that but was knocked around a bit at first.

We will see how earnings start to play out but that does not mean we are going to stick our necks out too far on a lot of positions heading toward earnings. That means we may miss out on some good moves but we can deal with that. We have banked some great moves already in this run and if there is a surge on earnings that changes the near term character there will be a test of that move and tests are always the best places to get in.

That takes us back to the transition aspect of the current market. Big run off the lows, testing that move a bit with SP500 and the financials unable to cleanly break resistance. They could surge right on up from here without looking back, and if so we will get entry points as new leaders step up and continuing leaders test and resume their rallies.

What we are really looking at is an SP500 test back toward the November low near 750 that holds. That would likely set a good bottom for a real surge back up that clears the 875 congestion level on SP500 and takes it into the 900 to 1000 range. That is why we have been buttoning up gain on marginal positions and still look at downside possibilities to play a move lower to that next level and then see what kind of rebound is offered. Earnings could play a big role in a test; even with very low expectations, the market run to this point sets it up for a deeper test.

These are the possibilities. The market is at a key inflection point and it behooves us to protect what we have and look for opportunity to play stocks that are at inflection points themselves whichever way they break, take some nice gain, and then see how the market responds to that break. Thus we will continue to take gain off the table on runs but continue looking for opportunity both upside and downside and see which side wins out near term, take our plays that way, then let the dust settle and play the trend that emerges.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1528.59

Resistance:

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1587 is the March 2009 high

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

The January closing low at 1653

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 18 day EMA at 1483

The 50 day EMA at 1479

The 50 day SMA at 1463

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 797.87

Resistance:

The 50 day EMA at 797

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 827

833 is the March 2009 peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

The 18 day EMA at 785

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7608.92

Resistance:

The 50 day EMA at 7634

7694 is the February intraday low

7702 is the July 2002 low

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8004

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

The 18 day EMA at 7482

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 31 - Tuesday

March Consumer Confidence (9:00): 26.0 actual versus 28.0 expected, 25.3 prior (revised from 25.0)

S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index, January (9:00): -18.97% actual versus - 18.6% expected, 18.55% prior

Chicago PMI, March (9:45): 31.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.2 prior

April 01 - Wednesday

March ADP Employment Change (8:15): -663K expected, -697K prior

ISM Index, March (10:00): 36.0 expected, 35.8 prior

Construction Spending, February (10:00): -1.9% expected, -3.3% prior

Pending Home Sales, February (10:00): 0.0% expected, -7.7% prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 3/27 (10:00): +3.3M prior

Auto Sales, March (14:00): 2.9M prior

Truck Sales, March (14:00): 3.5M prior

April 02 - Thursday

3/28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 653K expected, NA prior

Factor Orders, February (10:00): -0.3% expected, -1.9% prior

April 03 - Friday

Nonfarm Payrolls, March (8:30): -656K expected, -651K prior

Unemployment Rate, March (8:30): 8.5% expected, 8.1% prior

March Average Workweek (8:30): 33.3 expected, 33.3 prior

Hourly Earnings, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior

ISM Services, March (10:00): 42.0 expected, 41.6 prior