主题：04/15/2009 Market View -- 宁子

JPM earnings will garner much of the attention Thursday morning. Initial claims is also out before the open, and a half hour into trade we see the Philly Fed PMI, important in that the Fed Beige Book said it saw some improvement in that region. The important thing for the upside to continue is to have the financials rally off JPM and the techs and particularly the chips re-engage.

As you can piece together from the above, there are four issues driving the action right now. First is that the indices hit next resistance and faded back. The break of that resistance is key to any further upside on this move, and this pullback from that bump into resistance looks good for another attempt at it.

Second, the low volume on the move higher the past two weeks tells us the move is losing buying interest and with resistance overhead we have to be conscious that it could fail. There was some distribution Tuesday, another indication the move is getting a hitch in its get along. That said, a move can continue on lower volume longer than you think; with resistance overhead, you need volume to punch through, however, and thus we need to be aware not everything is roses.

Third, expiration week is here and that means some volatility and it will likely continue Thursday. Thus wider swings intraday can give opportunity but it also makes things more treacherous. No reason to stick your neck out with expiration, resistance, lower volume: see a good move set up and then act.

Fourth, it is earnings season. The initial responses were positive but rather short lived. GS was solid and INTC was not bad, but they were not rewarded after RIMM and WFC were. A lot is riding on JPM to see if the season still has any upside pop in it, and GOOG after hours Thursday will also play a role.

With that in mind there are some good set ups after this pullback but we were not moving in Wednesday on the pullback simply because of the tensions listed above. If JPM is treated well the financials may gap away once more, but there are other sectors we are looking at such as chips, techs, etc. that likely won't gap away with financials on some positive news. There are some we are willing to get into as they bounce even with the indices at resistance and the overall low volume. We also have some downside at the ready, however, if a bounce on JPM rolls over or if the market simply does not like what it hears and collapses the nice pullback set up it has as the end of the Wednesday trade.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1626.80

Resistance:

1644 from August 2003

The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)

1661 is the April 2009 prior peak

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

1947 is the October gap down point

Support:

1623 is the early April peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1603 is the December peak

The 10 day EMA at 1594

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

The 50 day EMA at 1523

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day SMA at 1487

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

S&P 500: Closed at 852.06

Resistance:

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

848 is the October 2008 closing low

846 is the April peak

842 is the early April peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

The 10 day EMA at 836

833 is the March 2009 peak

The 90 day SMA at 827

818 is the early November 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

The 50 day EMA at 811

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 8029.72

Resistance:

The early April peak at 8076

The April peak at 8113

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

7932 is the March 2009 peak

The 10 day EMA at 7916

7909 is the early January low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

The 50 day EMA at 7738

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 14 - Tuesday

PPI, March (8:30): -1.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

Core PPI (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)

Retail sales, March (8:30): -1.1% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from -0.1%)

Retail ex-auto (8:30): -0.9% actual versus 0.0% expected, 1.0% prior (revised from 0.7%)

Business inventories, February (10:00): -1.3% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.3% prior (revised from -1.1%)

April 15 - Wednesday

CPI, March (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior

Core CPI (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

New York PMI, April (8:30): -14.65 actual versus -35.0 expected, -38.2 prior

Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 69.3% actual versus 69.7% expected, 70.3% prior

Industrial Production, March (9:15): -1.5% actual versus -0.9% expected, -1.5% prior

Crude oil inventories (10:30): +5.6M actual versus +2.5M expected, +1.6M prior

Fed Beige Book (2:00)

April 16 - Thursday

Housing starts, March (8:30): 540K expected, 583K prior

Building permits, March (8:30): 549K expected, 547K prior

Initial jobless claims (8:30): 658K expected, 654K prior

Philly Fed, April (10:00): -32.0 expected, -35.0 prior

April 17 - Friday

Michigan Preliminary sentiment, April (9:55): 58.5 expected, 57.3 prior