主题：04/15/2009 Market View -- 宁子

New York PMI improves nicely.

Manufacturing is not sexy. Retail sales are. Retail sales involve direct consumer action and most people watching financial stations or any news station are consumers. Thus they are more interested in retail sales than the manufacturing report.

Thus when retail sales were spanked 1.1% in March (even if they were up the prior two months in a row and that was indeed unexpected) most were bummed. When the New York PMI came out at -14.5, well off its previous read of -38.2 and the -35 expected, not many were paying attention.

They should. While New York was down in March, it was showing improvement before that. Not positive, but as with other areas, coming back up off the lows. That makes March more of the outrider. As seen in the 2000 to 2002 recession, one of the first indicators of improvement were the regional manufacturing reports. Retail changes almost always occur after. Thus the improvement in regional manufacturing is encouraging.

Encouraging but not a turn in themselves. Anything has to bottom before it turns, but even as the INTC CEO said, a bottom is not a rebound. It is good to see many of the indicators showing improvement in they are not diving as they were. That does not mean they have turned. We are watching, the signs are decent and the market has moved off the lows. The market still has not broken its downtrend on SP500, and the financials are on the SP500. SOX and NASDAQ 100 are trying to lead the way but ultimately the financials have to follow.