主题：04/15/2009 Market View -- 宁子

SUMMARY:

- INTC knocks stocks back, but they don't stay down, at least not all of them.

- A very decent pullback.

- Retail sales bummed investors Tuesday, but they forget about the more leading indicators.

- Fed sees more regions declining slower. A ringing endorsement.

- Four considerations right now as market moves at a critical level.

Down all day and then a late rally.

It is looking like a typical expiration week. Volatility is kicking in midweek with up and down action Wednesday then a late surge. Atypical is the lack of volume, but more on that later. There is also a lot of news. Earnings are flowing and while pretty decent they didn't help the upside. INTC results were not bad but it was not getting any help as the CEO mitigated company statements some by saying a bottom in the PC market does not necessarily mean a rebound. CSX (shipping) beat expectations but revenues were way down as freight levels were way down. Burger King said traffic was lower; a burger joint with slow traffic in a recession. Depressing. WMT was glum once more with comments on one of the network stations that there was no 'quick end' to the economic doldrums.

There was economic news as well with the CPI coming in at -0.1%, the first drop since 1955. Core was up 0.2%. Prices are indeed rather mild as noted Tuesday. They will be mild but we have a storm coming given the type of policies adopted. That storm is not here now, however, so we cannot let it color our view of the near term market. No we can save that for when the boomers are all on fixed incomes and seeing their nest egg eviscerated by inflation. The New York PMI was much better at -14.5. The Beige Book later in the day saw only 5 of 12 regions seeing a slowing of the downturn. Yet, that is better than the 10 of 12 that saw no slowing at all the prior month.

Investors were not happy regardless of the news. Stocks started lower but recovered. They gave it up, the recovered. Repeat and repeat again. Late in the session we saw dojis on the NYSE index charts and like the look: at support, dojis, good set up for a rebound. It started that rebound in the last hour instead of waiting. That took everything but SOX and NASDAQ 100 positive. Mentioned that expiration volatility, right? Even with the rally it left the indices in good position to bounce near term.

TECHNICAL. The intraday action was volatile as noted, but the indices held near support on a second day of pullback and bounced. Not bad action even just below resistance.

INTERNALS. The internals were stronger than the index prices showed. Breadth was positive on NYSE even when it was lower and flat on NASDAQ when it was down for nearly all of the session. That shows there were a few stocks coloring the market tape such as INTC and its related stocks on NASDAQ. Volume was again significant, this time in that it was lower versus Tuesday when the market sold. Volume was lower even though the market finished positive. Of course most of the session the market was lower; thus volume was tracking lower on the selling and that is a good thing. Of course there was no massive rush of trade as the buyers came back in. No distribution and no accumulation. Not bad for a test session. But . . . the issue with this upside move is the light overall volume on the last part of the rally. That light trade puts the rally at risk even with good leadership and a good pullback. Does it put it at risk tomorrow? Not necessarily. The momentum can continue on light volume until it does not. Sounds vague but that is the way this works.

CHARTS. Very nice pullback for ALL of the indices. NASDAQ held the 10 day EMA and the early April peak as well as the February peak. SP500 held the 10 day EMA and bounced nicely. Same with SP600. SOX was a laggard, gapping lower, but it also recovered to hold near support at the 10 day EMA after it tested lower toward the January peak. NASDAQ 100 is showing a very nice pullback to test the January/February twin peaks. Even with the late surge this action leaves the indices in very good position to move higher again even with the overall low volume on this move higher. As noted, the market can do this for quite some time. Ultimately the low volume will hurt the upside if trade does not come in. For now, however, the there are some good upside set ups shaping up once more on the indices and on stocks in general.

LEADERSHIP. The chips did a decent job of holding up despite INTC's treatment. That did not translate into gains in the sector but it did lend to some very decent pullbacks that may give us some new entry points. Financials came back late in the session ahead of the JPM results Thursday morning. Copper was a bit toppy though steel and other commodities can lend it some support while copper stocks test. Retail was a bit soft was well. Overall, despite the sluggish day, the same leadership is holding up well and is trying to set back up.