主题：04/06/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside: Getting some pullbacks taking shape.

Play Date: 04/06/2009

AMT (American Tower--$32.69; -1.70; optionable): Telecom towers

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html

After Hours: $32.33

EARNINGS: 02/26/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. Nice surge last week off the 50 day EMA (30.05) that broke it over the highs in AMT's 9 week base. The surge took AMT over the 200 day SMA (33.09) and Monday it was testing, tapping at the 18 day EMA (31.33) on the low and rebounding to hold the highs in the base from late January and late March. Didn't take back all of the losses but a good rebound to hold the breakout. May take another day or so to finish the test but want to be ready to move in as AMT bounces off its test and continues the move higher.

Volume: 5.414M Avg Volume: 4.416M

BUY POINT: $33.42 Volume=6M Target=$39.94 Stop=$31.28

POSITION: AMT GT - July $32.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amt.html

Play Date: 04/06/2009

CFL (Brinks Home Security--$23.88; +0.29; optionable): Security systems, services

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cfl.html

EARNINGS: 02/18/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. We have looked at CFL before but now it is setting up a bit better. A new issued last October, this is CFL's first really good-looking base, a 9 week pattern formed using the January low as support for the bottom. It rallied back up mid-March and has moved laterally since, bouncing up and down over the 50 day EMA (22.36) in a $3 trading range that has formed the handle to the pattern, the shakeout right before the breakout. The three week handle is making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (23.40), and that often precedes the breakout move. Time to be patient and let CFL show us the breakout from its base that moves it on toward a new high.

Volume: 250.255K Avg Volume: 504.16K

BUY POINT: $24.39 Volume=700K Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.74

POSITION: CFL FX - June $22.50c (low OI, Wide spread) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cfl.html

Play Date: 04/06/2009

MBT (Mobile Telesys--$33.68; -1.57; optionable): Russian Wireless telecom

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html

After Hours: $33.44

EARNINGS: 03/11/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. Looking at MBT again as it tests back after gapping higher last Thursday out of a 12 week cup with handle base. The move took MBT to a new post November high and after this test back toward the 10 day EMA (32.15) MBT will be ready to move back upside and give us a nice entry point.

Volume: 1.652M Avg Volume: 2.37M

BUY POINT: $34.42 Volume=3M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.11

POSITION: MBT FF - June $30c (70 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mbt.html

Play Date: 04/06/2009

OTEX (Open Text--$33.64; +0.06; optionable): Internet software

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html

After Hours: $33.42

EARNINGS: Last week of April (last announced 01/28/2009)

STATUS: OTEX has formed something of a cup with handle the past 8 weeks after a much larger 5 month base that broke higher in late January but fizzled. Made a higher low in this base, setting up a stronger run higher. The past week and a half it has tested back, Friday tapping at the 50 day EMA (32.55) on the low and rebounding. Nice flag pattern of sorts in the handle. Volume was up to start April, and despite a distribution session Wednesday, there was solid upside trade Thursday and Friday. Monday it pulled back and tapped toward the 10 day EMA (32.15) on the low and bounced. That rising volume on an orderly pullback tells us to get ready for a possible break higher this week.

Volume: 253.136K Avg Volume: 538.14K

BUY POINT: $34.12 Volume=825K Target=$38.95 Stop=$32.51

POSITION: QFT HF - Aug. $30c (74 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/otex.html

Downside:

Play Date: 04/06/2009

CELG (Celgene--$42.31; +0.16; optionable): Biotechnology

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html

After Hours: $42.31

EARNINGS: 01/29/2009

STATUS: Put. After the nasty gap lower Wednesday, a gap that took CELG below its ugly March low (39.32), CELG rebounded Friday to Monday, rallying up to a down trendline from the stock's peak in August 2008. Volume has declined on the rebound, coming in at average Monday. Looking for CELG to fail in its rebound and turn back down again, giving us an entry point for a downside play. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.

Volume: 7.343M Avg Volume: 6.74M

BUY POINT: $41.87 Volume=8M Target=$38.75 Stop=$43.31

POSITION: LQH QI - May $45p (-59 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/celg.html