主题：03/31/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 03/31/2009

CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$246.39; +11.97; optionable)

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html

After Hours: $244.90

EARNINGS: 04/23/2009

STATUS: Flag. CME surged out of an 11 week cup base mid-March, moving to 265 on the high just over a week back. It is testing, selling to the 18 day EMA Monday then gapping back up over the 10 day EMA (238) Tuesday. Nice, relatively tight flag pattern here, holding over the December highs, the top of the base. Low volume the past three sessions in this consolidation, and we are just going to let it show us the break over the upper down trendline in the flag on some volume to show us the buy point.

Volume: 1.309M Avg Volume: 1.581M

BUY POINT: $248.88 Volume=2M Target=$274.57 Stop=$236.71

POSITION: CME FQ - June $250c (45 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cme.html

Play Date: 03/31/2009

MAA (Mid-America Apartment--$30.83; +2.37; optionable): Residential REIT

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/maa.html

After Hours: $30.83

EARNINGS: 05/07/2009

STATUS: Trend reversal. After peaking in July 2008 MAA was screaming 'mamaaaa' all the way down to November. It bounced but ran into the trendline and fall again, sliding down into March where it matched the November low. It broke higher the second week of March, clearing the down trendline on strong volume. Nice rally to 32.50 and then started the current lateral attest, holding the 50 day EMA (29.19) as it makes the move. Some very strong upside moves on some huge volume spikes that we call 'get ready' spikes that tell us to get ready for the move higher. Another big spike Tuesday as MAA moved through the 90 day SMA. Ready to move in as it continues the move higher. A lot of buying here.

Volume: 1.401M Avg Volume: 850.91K

BUY POINT: $31.18 Volume=1.1M Target=$37.95 Stop=$29.12

POSITION: MAA FF - June $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/maa.html

Play Date: 03/31/2009

RFMD (RF Micro Devices--$1.33; -0.01; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rfmd.html

After Hours: $1.34

EARNINGS: Last week of April (last announced 01/27/2009)

STATUS: Cup w/handle. An interesting play not in its pattern but in the price. This is a pattern seen setting up in many stocks as RFMD forms an 8 week cup with handle. It broke sharply higher last week on strong volume and has moved laterally this week on lower and lower trade, holding the gains as the 10 day EMA (1.21) rises to meet it. That is often what pushes a stock to its next move higher in the breakout. Solid money flow and plenty of room to move up to the 200 day SMA (2.05) for a 30%ish gain.

Volume: 2.56M Avg Volume: 2.995M

BUY POINT: $1.48 Volume=4.5M Target=$1.95 Stop=$1.19

POSITION: - Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rfmd.html

Play Date: 03/31/2009

SY (Sybase--$30.29; -0.23; optionable): Application software

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sy.html

After Hours: $30.29

EARNINGS: Last week of April (Last announced 01/28/2009)

STATUS: Pennant. Broke out of a 5.5 month cup with handle mid-March, gapping over the February peak on very strong volume. It rallied on up to 31.38 on the peak and is now testing that move, forming a short pennant on low volume as it holds its move. Excellent money flow is surging higher. Going to be patient and wait for this solid leader to continue its breakout with a surge out of this pennant.

Volume: 1.773M Avg Volume: 1.585M

BUY POINT: $30.91 Volume=2M Target=$35.94 Stop=$29.69

POSITION: SY FF - June $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sy.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/31/2009

APA (Apache--$64.09; +0.63; optionable): Independent oil and gas

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apa.html

After Hours: $63.88

EARNINGS: 04/30/2009

STATUS: Put. Trending lower since mid-2008. APA rallied off a small double bottom to start March, moving up to the 90 day SMA at 70. It peaked and has gapped lower Friday and Monday. Tried to recover Tuesday, but ran into resistance at 65 and stalled, showing a doji. Looking for APA to continue lower here after making this lower high at resistance. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.

Volume: 3.755M Avg Volume: 5.704M

BUY POINT: $63.21 Volume=6M Target=$57.21 Stop=$65.61

POSITION: APA QM - May $65p (-43 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apa.html

Play Date: 03/31/2009

MCK (McKesson--$35.04; -1.08; optionable): Drugs

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mck.html

After Hours: $34.95

EARNINGS: Third week of April (last announced 01/26/2009)

STATUS: Put. In deep, in deep. Formed a rounded top January to early March then crashed support at 40 second week of the month. It has worked laterally the past two weeks in a very flat range below the 10 day EMA (36.21). Unable to move higher at all, showing the sellers sitting on it. Stronger, above average volume Tuesday, the first in two weeks, as MCK broke lower on an upside session. Money flow is heading lower ahead of price. Looks ready for another collapse. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.

Volume: 4.884M Avg Volume: 3.625M

BUY POINT: $34.76 Volume=5M Target=$32.05 Stop=$36.31

POSITION: MCK QG - May $35p (-43 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mck.html

Play Date: 03/31/2009

MDVN (Medivation--$18.27; +0.08; optionable): Biotechnology

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdvn.html

After Hours: $18.27

EARNINGS: 03/16/2009

STATUS: Downside Flag. MDVN collapsed in late February, breaking down through several support levels but held support at 14. It has recovered since along with the market, moving back up to the 200 day SMA (19.03) resistance level that is coincident with the October lows and the January/February consolidation. Looking for that resistance to stall the move out and send MDVN down through the 50 day EMA (17.83) and the bottom trendline of its flag channel. A move to the initial target lands a 42%ish gain. It can go on down to 14 and if it is falling sharply, we will let it.

Volume: 264.326K Avg Volume: 292.823K

BUY POINT: $17.66 Volume=350K Target=$15.11 Stop=$19.11

POSITION: QMD QD - May $20p (-59 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mdvn.html