主题：03/17/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside: If the next move upside is powerful and shows a follow through there are stocks in position to run higher still.

Play Date: 03/17/2009

HOTT (Hot Topic--$9.47; +0.42; optionable): Teen apparel stores

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html

After Hours: $9.25

EARNINGS: 05/20/2009

STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. HOTT has hung in through all of the selling, forming up a 6 week base, setting the stage for a breakout move. Formed a 5 week cup base and tried the breakout in early February, but the market sold and HOTT came back to form this base. Nice action and looking for volume to surge as HOTT makes the breakout move.

Volume: 1.168M Avg Volume: 1.028M

BUY POINT: $9.66 Volume=1.4M Target=$11.74 Stop=$8.98

POSITION: UHO EU - May $7.50c (76 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hott.html

Play Date: 03/17/2009

ILMN (Illumina--$36.07; +1.52; optionable): Biotechnology

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ilmn.html

After Hours: $36.07

EARNINGS: 02/03/2009

STATUS: Cup with handle. An interesting 6 week reverse head and shoulders has formed that used the 50 day EMA at 30 as support and bounced ILMN higher late last week. The move sent it over the 200 day SMA (34.26) that stalled it in mid-February, and Friday to Monday ILMN was testing that break before a modest bounce Tuesday. Bigger picture this short base is the handle consolidation to a larger 6 month base that is setting the foundation for a nice breakout ahead. Money flow is moving up ahead of price as it consolidates. One of the first cup with handle bases of size we are seeing in this recovery. Cool.

Volume: 2.174M Avg Volume: 2.295M

BUY POINT: $36.51 Volume=2.5M Target=$42.45 Stop=$33.95

POSITION: IQA FG - June $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ilmn.html

Play Date: 03/17/2009

MTZ (Mastec--$11.65; +0.80; optionable): Construction

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtz.html

After Hours: $11.46

EARNINGS: 03/02/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good volume Tuesday as MTZ moved to the top of its weeklong lateral move, the handle to its 11 week base. After bottoming in November, MTZ rallied and then formed this base during the market selling. Strong money flow is surging ahead of price and looking for MTZ to make the breakout and follow that money higher.

Volume: 844.096K Avg Volume: 801.464K

BUY POINT: $11.77 Volume=1.2M Target=$14.44 Stop=$10.95

POSITION: MTZ GB - July $10c (65 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mtz.html

Play Date: 03/17/2009

NETL (Netlogic Microsystems--$27.07; +1.60; optionable): Semiconductors

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netl.html

After Hours: $26.68

EARNINGS: 02/03/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a three week handle to its 6 month base, bumping the 200 day SMA (26.83) on the handle highs as NETL measures for the breakout move over this key resistance. One of the few to form this pattern and this size as the market recovers from the sharp selloff. In a very good risk/reward position and ready to move in as NETL breaks higher on strong trade.

Volume: 608.281K Avg Volume: 798.662K

BUY POINT: $27.57 Volume=1.2M Target=$32.35 Stop=$25.64

POSITION: LKT GE - July $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/netl.html

Continuing play ready to move:

Play Date: 03/11/2009

MCHP (Microchip--$20.51; +0.50; optionable): Semiconductors

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html

After Hours: $20.51

EARNINGS: 01/29/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moved up the buy point to account for the break higher and subsequent lateral move to form the handle. Looking solid and just being patient to let MCHP show us the breakout to buy into. To recap: A very interesting pattern. MCHP is in a 4 month trading range, but over the past 6 weeks has formed a cup with handle pattern. It made a higher low in March at the bottom of the new base, then rallied up to the resistance at 20.70 last week. It has since shuffled sideways on very low, below average volume. Nice handle forming as money flow surges higher. Looking for the breakout over the top of the range on some strong volume to give us the buy point.

Volume: 4.027M Avg Volume: 4.722M

BUY POINT: $20.82 Volume=5M Target=$24.77 Stop=$19.77

POSITION: QMT DW - Apr. $17.50c (79 delta) or QMT GD - July $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mchp.html

Downside: In addition to SDS, IWM, OCR, GME

Play Date: 03/17/2009

ICUI (ICU Medical--$29.86; +0.21; optionable): Medical instruments

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icui.html

After Hours: $29.44

EARNINGS: 02/02/2009

STATUS: Downside. ICUI fell like a stone in late February through early march. It fell to the November low and then rebounded the past week to the 200 day SMA (29.87) it crashed through to start the month. Showed some churn just below this level Monday as volume spiked, then closed right at the resistance on low Tuesday volume. Just watching to see if ICUI has to go back to the ICU and gives us a buy point as it does so. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.

Volume: 114.386K Avg Volume: 151.169K

BUY POINT: $29.21 Volume=185K Target=$26.72 Stop=$29.98

POSITION: QPD QF - May $30p (-45 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/icui.html