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主题:03/17/2009 Market View -- 宁子
CPI, Current Account, oil inventories, and the FOMC rate decision. Pretty busy day, but not too sure anything will really move the market. Prices are holding higher though they are declining. The Fed won't make any difference; we heard it all on '60 Minutes' Sunday. The current account could be of interest given all the talk from China and elsewhere about our spending. Kind of funny and somewhat ironic that a communist country is telling us how to issue our debt, etc. Interesting times indeed.
The Tuesday action was not really expected, particularly after what the NYSE indices showed Monday with those higher volume reversals. We anticipated NASDAQ would show some more consolidating in its own right. Instead a weak start and then a rally all session with solid leaders moving well. Just no volume. With everyone looking at the run maybe it will turn back on Wednesday. Many after hours were talking about this move as extending the rally a bit too far so maybe we have another upside move again.
We are looking for some more push upside but if it comes, unless there is big upside volume and a powerful move, we expect a pullback afterwards. We took gain Tuesday based upon the solid price moves after taking some late last week as well. If there is another surge Wednesday that is not accompanied by big volume then we will be taking some more off the table and watch how the test of the key levels plays out. If it starts downside hard then we look at some of those downside positions that we have adjusted the entry points on as the market continued to rally.
So basically the rally continues but it is reaching the outer bands of potential resistance and that means we have to take care with the upside and be ready for some downside to make some quick money on a test lower after the indices hit that resistance. This could really surprise to the upside; don't want to downplay this as Tuesday was much stronger than anticipated even with the lower volume. It has the potential to surprise and if it does we let some plays continue to run. It will indeed be a surprise if it does, however, because we are still looking for a stall as the indices hit that next resistance.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1462.11
Resistance:
1460 is the February low. Reached them but not shattered.
The 50 day EMA at 1459. Shaken but not stirred yet.
The 50 day SMA at 1474
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low.
The 90 day SMA at 14.96
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1565 is the second low in October 2008
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1603 is the December peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1644 from August 2003
1666 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
1434 is the January low (1440.86 closing)
1428 is the mid-November 2008 low
The 18 day EMA at 1400
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1316 is the November 2008 closing low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday
1262 from July 2002
1192 is the July 2002 intraday low
1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low
S&P 500: Closed at 778.12
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 795
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
812 is the February low
815 is the early December 2008 low
818 is the early November 2008 low
The 90 day SMA at 837
839 is the early October 2008 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
The 18 day EMA at 746
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
722 is a December 1996 low
681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing
665 from August 1996
656-654 from January, April 1996
607-05 from November 1995
Dow: Closed at 7395.70
Resistance:
7449 is the November 2008 low
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
The 50 day EMA at 7636
7694 is the February intraday low
7702 is the July 2002 low
7867 is the early February low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7909 is the early January low
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
The 90 day SMA at 8121
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.
7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market
7115 is the February 2009 closing low
The 18 day EMA at 7156
7008 from February 1997 closing peak
6528 is the November 1996 peak
6489 from December 1996 closing peak
6356 is the April 1997 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
March 16 - Monday
March Empire Manufacturing (8:30): -38.23 actual versusl -32.0 expected, -34.65 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Flows, January (9:00): -43B actual versus $34.8B prior
Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 70.9% actual versus 71.1% expected, 71.9% prior (revised from 72.0%)
Industrial Production, February (9:15): -1.4% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.9% prior, revised from -1.8%
March 17 - Tuesday
February Building Permits (8:30): 547K actual versus 500K expected, 531K prior
Housing Starts, February (8:30): 583K actual versus 450K expected, 477K prior
Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.8% prior
March 18 - Wednesday
February Core CPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
CPI, February (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
Current Account Balance, Q4 (8:30): -$136.7B expected, NA prior
Crude Oil Inventories, 03/13 (10:30): +749K prior
FOMC Rate Decision (14:15): No change expected
March 19 - Thursday
03/14 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 654K prior
Leading Indicators, February (10:00): -0.6% expected, 0.4% prior
Philadelphia Fed, March (10:00): -40.0 expected, -41.3 prior
- 相关回复 上下关系5
🙂03/17/2009 Market View 3 宁子 字4481 2009-03-17 20:18:34
🙂THE ECONOMY 1 宁子 字1491 2009-03-17 20:19:07
🙂THE MARKET 宁子 字7517 2009-03-17 20:19:35
🙂WEDNESDAY
🙂THE PLAYS: 1 宁子 字5221 2009-03-17 22:27:23