主题：03/17/2009 Market View -- 宁子

CPI, Current Account, oil inventories, and the FOMC rate decision. Pretty busy day, but not too sure anything will really move the market. Prices are holding higher though they are declining. The Fed won't make any difference; we heard it all on '60 Minutes' Sunday. The current account could be of interest given all the talk from China and elsewhere about our spending. Kind of funny and somewhat ironic that a communist country is telling us how to issue our debt, etc. Interesting times indeed.

The Tuesday action was not really expected, particularly after what the NYSE indices showed Monday with those higher volume reversals. We anticipated NASDAQ would show some more consolidating in its own right. Instead a weak start and then a rally all session with solid leaders moving well. Just no volume. With everyone looking at the run maybe it will turn back on Wednesday. Many after hours were talking about this move as extending the rally a bit too far so maybe we have another upside move again.

We are looking for some more push upside but if it comes, unless there is big upside volume and a powerful move, we expect a pullback afterwards. We took gain Tuesday based upon the solid price moves after taking some late last week as well. If there is another surge Wednesday that is not accompanied by big volume then we will be taking some more off the table and watch how the test of the key levels plays out. If it starts downside hard then we look at some of those downside positions that we have adjusted the entry points on as the market continued to rally.

So basically the rally continues but it is reaching the outer bands of potential resistance and that means we have to take care with the upside and be ready for some downside to make some quick money on a test lower after the indices hit that resistance. This could really surprise to the upside; don't want to downplay this as Tuesday was much stronger than anticipated even with the lower volume. It has the potential to surprise and if it does we let some plays continue to run. It will indeed be a surprise if it does, however, because we are still looking for a stall as the indices hit that next resistance.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1462.11

Resistance:

1460 is the February low. Reached them but not shattered.

The 50 day EMA at 1459. Shaken but not stirred yet.

The 50 day SMA at 1474

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low.

The 90 day SMA at 14.96

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1565 is the second low in October 2008

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

1666 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

1434 is the January low (1440.86 closing)

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

The 18 day EMA at 1400

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 778.12

Resistance:

The 50 day EMA at 795

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

812 is the February low

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 837

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

The 18 day EMA at 746

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7395.70

Resistance:

7449 is the November 2008 low

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

The 50 day EMA at 7636

7694 is the February intraday low

7702 is the July 2002 low

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8121

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

The 18 day EMA at 7156

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 16 - Monday

March Empire Manufacturing (8:30): -38.23 actual versusl -32.0 expected, -34.65 prior

Net Long-Term TIC Flows, January (9:00): -43B actual versus $34.8B prior

Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 70.9% actual versus 71.1% expected, 71.9% prior (revised from 72.0%)

Industrial Production, February (9:15): -1.4% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.9% prior, revised from -1.8%

March 17 - Tuesday

February Building Permits (8:30): 547K actual versus 500K expected, 531K prior

Housing Starts, February (8:30): 583K actual versus 450K expected, 477K prior

Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior

PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.8% prior

March 18 - Wednesday

February Core CPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

CPI, February (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior

Current Account Balance, Q4 (8:30): -$136.7B expected, NA prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 03/13 (10:30): +749K prior

FOMC Rate Decision (14:15): No change expected

March 19 - Thursday

03/14 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 654K prior

Leading Indicators, February (10:00): -0.6% expected, 0.4% prior

Philadelphia Fed, March (10:00): -40.0 expected, -41.3 prior