主题：03/16/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Housing starts, PPI, a market starting to pullback after its first substantial rally in at least a month and more like 2 months. What will win out? Likely the test that is needed. The issue facing the market is whether the SP500 reversal from gains to losses on high volume leads to a sharp higher volume selloff once more or NASDAQ goes about its own business, completes a modest pullback, then resumes its upside move. NASDAQ certainly has some quality stocks with solid patterns to give this some credence. It will have to withstand the financial stocks coming back down in their downtrends after an oversold rally. Strong patterns versus drops within continuing downtrends. We will see.

We are going to be looking at those tech and chip stocks that are fading back for new buy points. Many of the early leaders put in their second day of testing on Monday, and one more day puts them in classic rebound position as long as they can hold their breakouts/near support. These are times to be patient, let them make the test and then show us the rebound. If they can make that rebound stick toward the close of the day, then the move has some substance once more and we move in with new positions.

At the same time you have the financials fading from their recent run with some high initial volume as the move shows signs of stalling. Not all financials moved on higher volume, e.g. GS fell on lower trade as it tests its strong run from last week. Don't want to write off the NYSE indices and the financials as they could make a simply, clean test similar to NASDAQ. We will see how it plays out but have some downside at hand if volume turns ugly to the downside.

The FASB proposed Mark to Market rule changes allowing good judgment or something of that nature may provide a spark to the financials as new details came out after hours. Asian markets jumped out of the gates 1.5% to 4%. We will see what kind of holdover effect that has Tuesday but expect to see things pretty much status quo from the Monday close. If so we look for a continued test to set up new buy points on those leading techs and chips

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1404.02

Resistance:

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1434 is the January low (1440.86 closing)

1460 is the February low

The 50 day EMA at 1459

The 50 day SMA at 1477

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low.

The 90 day SMA at 1500

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1565 is the second low in October 2008

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

1666 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The 18 day EMA at 1392

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 753.89

Resistance:

768 is the 2002 bear market low

The 50 day EMA at 750

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

804 is the low on the January 2009 selloff

812 is the February low

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

839 is the early October 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 840

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

The 18 day EMA at 743

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7216.97

Resistance:

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7449 is the November 2008 low

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

The 50 day EMA at 7646

7694 is the February intraday low

7702 is the July 2002 low

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

8141 is the early December low

The 90 day SMA at 8146

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

The 18 day EMA at 7128

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 16 - Monday

March Empire Manufacturing (8:30): -38.23 actual versusl -32.0 expected, -34.65 prior

Net Long-Term TIC Flows, January (9:00): -43B actual versus $34.8B prior

Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 70.9% actual versus 71.1% expected, 71.9% prior (revised from 72.0%)

Industrial Production, February (9:15): -1.4% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.9% prior, revised from -1.8%

March 17 - Tuesday

February Building Permits (8:30): 500K expected, 531K prior

Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior

Housing Starts, February (8:30): 450K expected, 466K prior

PPI, February (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.8% prior

March 18 - Wednesday

February Core CPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

CPI, February (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior

Current Account Balance, Q4 (8:30): -$136.7B expected, NA prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 03/13 (10:30): +749K prior

FOMC Rate Decision (14:15): No change expected

March 19 - Thursday

03/14 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 654K prior

Leading Indicators, February (10:00): -0.6% expected, 0.4% prior

Philadelphia Fed, March (10:00): -40.0 expected, -41.3 prior