主题：03/16/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 03/16/2009

GS (Goldman Sachs--$93.90; -4.90; optionable): Broker Dealer

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html

After Hours: $94.51

EARNINGS: Last announced 12/16/2008. Next date is not confirmed

STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. GS surged the past week and Monday started a test of that surge higher, fading back toward the 10 day EMA (89.97) on the lowest volume in a week. Looking for GS to make a full test of the 10 day and then we see if it is ready to put in a higher low there and bounce on stronger trade, making a run at breaking the February high at 98.

Volume: 28.25M Avg Volume: 23.716M

BUY POINT: $91.65 Volume=32M Target=$109.85 Stop=$88.32

POSITION: GS DR - Apr. $90c (60 delta) or GS GS - July $95c (48 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gs.html

Play Date: 03/16/2009

MOS (Mosaic Company--$41.35; -0.73; optionable): Ag chemicals

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mos.html

After Hours: $41.30

EARNINGS: 04/07/2009

STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking another look at MOS as it rolls down to the bottom of its uptrending channel just over the 50 day EMA (39.82). MOS rallied last week but could not make the run up to the upper channel line over 50. Nice easy low volume test, and set to make the bounce off the trendline. Looking for good volume as it makes the break higher.

Volume: 7.442M Avg Volume: 8.822M

BUY POINT: $42.04 Volume=12M Target=$49.95 Stop=$39.77

POSITION: MOS FH - June $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mos.html

New Buy Points on Continuing Plays:

Play Date: 03/16/2009

AMZN (Amazon.com--$66.98; -1.65; optionable)

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html

After Hours: $67.21

EARNINGS: 01/29/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. Nice surge through the 200 day SMA (64.35) last week as AMZN broke out from a tight 4 week trading range. Hit 70 on the high and is coming back to test on below average volume, holding over the 10 day EMA (66.01) Monday. The early February high is 66.71 and AMZN held that Monday. Nice orderly test and looking for AMZN to hold in this area and then rebound on some better trade. We will add to positions at that point.

Volume: 9.437M Avg Volume: 9.852M

BUY POINT: $67.11 Volume=11M Target=$74.95 Stop=$65.77

POSITION: ZQN GM - July $65c (57 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amzn.html

Play Date: 03/16/2009

DRIV (Digital River--$28.55; -0.65; optionable): Internet software services

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html

EARNINGS: 01/29/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. DRIV made the breakout from its 15 week ascending triangle last week, giving us a nice gain and we took some of it Thursday. Now it is making the test on lower volume. Another test back toward 27.50ish will be its third day of pullback. After that we will look for a break higher on rising trade once more and add to some positions as it does.

Volume: 650.897K Avg Volume: 560.39K

BUY POINT: $27.68 Volume=750K Target=$30.95 Stop=$26.88

POSITION: DQI FE - June $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/driv.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/16/2009

AOC (Aon Corp.--$37.18; -1.75; optionable): Accident and health insurance

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aoc.html

After Hours: $37.18

EARNINGS: 02/06/2009

STATUS: Downside. AOC is working along the October/February up trendline, trying to hold its ground after coming back to the trendline to start the month. Tried one bounce but that failed immediately and AOC was back at the trendline. Could not make much of a move last week as the market rallied and Monday it turned down and tanked to close on the trendline on stronger, above average volume. When a stock cannot get up off a trendline and indeed fails a couple of bounce attempts it is losing its mojo. Watching to see if AOC breaks below the trendline on continued solid trade and if it does we move in on the downside. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.

Volume: 4.141M Avg Volume: 3.797M

BUY POINT: $36.98 Volume=4.4M Target=$34.91 Stop=$38.31

POSITION: AOC PU - Apr. $37.50p (-44 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aoc.html

Play Date: 03/16/2009

MCD (McDonalds--$51.69; -0.69; optionable): Hamburger joints

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcd.html

After Hours: $51.65

EARNINGS: 04/22/2009

STATUS: Head and shoulders. A favorite stock for many but MCD is trying to hold a support line at 51.50ish while the down trendline from January pushes it down from above. If MCD breaks below support on a good shot of volume we are looking to enter the downside play. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.

Volume: 9.883M Avg Volume: 10.835M

BUY POINT: $51.48 Volume=12M Target=$49.05 Stop=$52.31

POSITION: MCD PX - Apr. $52.50p (-48 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mcd.html