主题：03/16/2009 Market View -- 宁子

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 43.74; +1.38

VXN: 43.54; +2.29

VXO: 44.71; -0.37

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.8; +0.09

NASDAQ

Stats: -27.48 points (-1.92%) to close at 1404.02

Volume: 2.142B (+3.78%)

Up Volume: 603.38M (-612.763M)

Down Volume: 1.54B (+741.675M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.23 to 1

Previous Session: Advancers led 1.33 to 1

New Highs: 8 (+1)

New Lows: 37 (+4)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

Gapped higher as the financials were happy once more with a new bank saying it was making money. Bounced up into the January consolidation a bit, came close to the 50 day EMA (1459) and then giving it up. It was lagging early on as it sold off midmorning while the NYSE indices were putting on 2% moves. It rallied back into early afternoon close to session highs, then it gave it up for good on the rest of the session. It closed just over the December low on rising but below average volume. Slight distribution but more of a pullback after a good run with many solid stocks pulling back as well either for their first day after the run higher or their second day as many early leaders eased back some Friday. With the financials reversing on some volume it will be up to the leadership in NASDAQ to hold the line on the test, do its job, and then try the next leg higher.

SOX (-3.61%) turned over as well, giving up some of its solid gains but holding easily over the 50 day EMA and SMA. It will likely test more Tuesday toward those levels, maybe a bit lower, and then we will look for a renewed break higher. SOX could slide laterally and slightly lower for a couple of sessions, form a handle shakeout to its 6 week base, and then break higher again with a good foundation below it.

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg

SP500/NYSE

Stats: -2.66 points (-0.35%) to close at 753.89

NYSE Volume: 1.898B (+17.82%)

Up Volume: 1.087B (+91.941M)

Down Volume: 801.308M (+200.029M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.38 to 1

Previous Session: Advancers led 1.54 to 1

New Highs: 7 (0)

New Lows: 66 (+4)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

Covered it earlier. After a jump higher to the top of the late February laterally move it reversed and showed a doji on the candlestick chart, something of an evening star symbol that can indicate the end of a run. Not necessarily the tar and feathering of the move, but a change in momentum and the run has to take a rest. The issue was the volume as it jumped up to a level that matched some of the highest volume in the past month outside a few huge days as it touched a down trendline from the mid-September peak to the early February peak. That volume at that trendline shows a lot of turnover with sellers matching the buyers blow for blow and indeed taking control of the session. That kind of churn can signal some serious selling so you have to be a bit vigilant with respect to the financials because those are the stocks that were making the moves on SP500.

SP600 (-1.47%) gapped to the November low on the open and rallied modestly through that level. Then the small caps reversed and sold down to the 18 day EMA on the close. The small caps could not even get through the November low, a level of resistance bolstered by the late February consolidation that failed. The small caps continue to languish with the worst action in the market and we are watching our downside play here to see if we get another run lower given the small cap weakness.

DJ30

Very similar pattern to SP500 but of course DJ30 did not even make it to the November closing low near 7500. It did reach the top of the late February consolidation attempt but there it rolled over to close flat. Volume surged just as on SP500. Evening star doji with strong volume. More churn as the financials surged and purged. Now we see how it tests the lows in the late February lateral move (7115).

Stats: -7.01 points (-0.1%) to close at 7216.97

Volume: 587M shares Monday versus 479M shares Friday. Volume surged as the financials jumped and then reversed. Not great action.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg