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主题:exports are costs -- meokey
今天在一篇文章上看到一个观点“exports are costs”,还说这是国贸的关键理论。看了看没能理解,这是不是说我们应该多进口少出口?不知道哪位能够帮忙解惑?谢谢
Although this idea is familiar to economists, some readers may find it surprising. So here’s a simple parable to explain why it’s true.
Suppose that we live in a country where everyone eats only doughnuts. We’re self-sufficient except for one thing: we need to import bananas to make banana cream doughnuts. Happily, foreign producers are willing to exchange truckloads of our trees for truckloads of their bananas. So some workers spend their time cutting down trees to send abroad, and the rest of us work on making doughnuts.
Now let’s suppose that foreigners are no longer satisfiedwith trees: they will now only exchange bananas for furniture. Some workers must therefore stop making doughnuts and start transforming trees into furniture for export. Even though the national accounts would record an increase in the value-added of exports, this development is bad news. The reallocation of workers away from doughnut production means that we make and consume fewer doughnuts.
What happens if foreigners go back to accepting trees for bananas? The workers who had been making furniture for export can go back to making doughnuts. Although the national accounts would show a reduction in export volumes, we are clearly better off: doughnut consumption will have increased.
我觉得这里的基本假设是错的。首先,本国对doughnuts需求不是无限的,不能创造充分的就业。德国如果不出口足够的宝马车,德国工人就要失业。只看到出口占用劳动力,没看到出口创造就业,这是理想化自给自足概念下的误区。
其次,国际贸易从来不必然是平衡的。理想的情况是进口出口一样多,没有逆差也没有顺差,实践中基本没有这样的事。一个国家受限于本国的自然人文条件与工业环境,在特定的历史时期,总会出现这样或者那样的出超或者入超。至于这种出超/入超是否可持续,这是另一个问题。
这段文章大概可以算是个典型,说明经济学上从简单概念或者似是而非的“公理”出发,往往导出跟现实相差甚远的结论。此类问题,推导的过程未必不对,毛病往往出在前提上。
正式的学术文章里怕很少用缩写的。
要是财经记者写的,可信度怕是很小的吧?
就是一本business的杂志里的一篇文章。就是一句来头很大的“a key point of international trade theory”把我糊弄晕了,呵呵
看来这是某些人的惯用手法了,古今中外概不能免 :-)
才能说的一句话。简单点说 出口的就是自己人给别人干活儿了。进口的是别人为自己干活儿。
国家发展到一定程度了,活儿多的干不完。于是优化干活策略:好活儿都留着给自己,坏活儿让别国家干。自己干一个小时的可以换赚10块。别人干一个小时只能赚1块。通过进出口进行交换,从而充分利用自己国家的人力资源。
但是对于中国,很多人还没活儿干呢。美国抛个活儿出来就抢着干了。虽然给别人打工,怎么说也能提高下自己经验啊。所以这句话不能用在中国这些发展中国家头上。
这个问题解释的很清楚