主题：03/19/2009 Market View -- 宁子

SUMMARY:

- Market pensive after Fed's kitchen sink plan, stalls at same resistance as Wednesday.

- Philly Fed is no spring flower but it improves over last month.

- LIBOR making some serious pullbacks.

- Dollar slaughter continues, propelling oil, gold, and crimping Tour de France plans.

- So far an orderly pullback, but it's early.

SP500, NASDAQ cannot punch through resistance but a decent day all things considered.

Jobless claims were better than expected (646K versus 655K) but continuing claims hit a new record at 5.47M. Seemed to help futures, however, as they rose after the news Citi announced a planned reverse stock split; that is about the only kind you see right now though they are important indeed.

In the last bear market and recession a lot of stocks split 'the hard way,' i.e. were cut in half or down to a quarter in value just by selling. A lot of stocks that announced splits announced reverse splits just to get their float down and their stock prices up so they would not be delisted from the exchanges. It was a survival move, but it also came pretty much at the bottom of the selling. Thus it is worth watching these reverse splits. The more the better.

There were also the ORCL earnings that pushed up the software stocks and the FDX terrible earnings that actually helped the transportation sector, a play on the 'how much worse than this can it get' factor. Stocks started higher, gapping up even on SP500, looking ready to continue the upside run following the Fed's latest $1.1T gambit despite the somewhat questionable action late Wednesday after the FOMC decision.

SP500 hit the same 803 level hit Wednesday after the Fed announcement. NASDAQ hit the same level as well. That was it. They immediately peeled back as sellers hit the move higher in financials. The LEI came out and was pretty (-0.4% that at least beat expectations of -0.6%) and the first down LEI in four months. The Philly Fed was bad but at -35 it was still an improvement. Kind of like radiation levels falling a bit after a nuclear explosion; good but hardly makes things livable. A mixed back and the market bounced a bit but couldn't hold the move and wandered lower into lunch and then laterally into the bell with modest losses. What excitement.

The cause? There were some issues Thursday. The house passed what most scholars and everyday people call an unconstitutional 90% tax on bonuses for AIG employees. Congress knew about these bonuses last year and early this year when the stimulus was put together. It was covered in that bill that no one had the time to read. Congress knew why the bonuses were there as well, i.e. an inducement to keep the good workers at AIG to help resolve the problems. They were doing their job and helped lower the losses. Now a bunch of red-faced House reps, flinging spittle with every word, demand names and addresses be made public and want a 90% tax passed retroactively. Sounds ex post facto, a constitutional no-no. Of course this whole fiasco is using the Constitution as a liner for the bottom of a bird cage. So much for our sanctity of contract that we hold out to the rest of the world as separating us from the economic riff raff.

Then there was the New Car Deal, part 2 where the feds will guarantee the receivables of auto parts suppliers to the automakers. They cannot sell their receivables as they used to because the private sector views them as too risky given the source of the eventual payment. Thus the government, in for the whole pound now, is basically saying it will buy these questionable accounts. Another one on the public, or more accurately, on the tax paying public.

Those were not pleasant for a market that is based upon a free enterprise model. Just more unpleasant affects of a Congress swinging sharply to the former eastern European model. Still, the market was due for a pullback, a rest. The Fed may have changed the game with the new massive $1.1T TALF facility, but after the 20% run by SP500 it hit resistance and stalled. It stalled Wednesday at 803 and then again Thursday at 803. It is trying to digest the enormity of the Fed's actions and ramifications and is taking a pause while it does. Pretty normal. The question is whether it is just a pullback that will continue higher or a stall in preparation for a more significant run lower as seen before.

TECHNICAL. Intraday the indices moved higher to the same resistance hit late Wednesday and they fell back once more, wandering to the close and closing lower. Not great action but it was not a total junking either.

INTERNALS. Breadth and volume pretty much matched the action, i.e. pretty flat on the day after a follow through. NYSE breadth was interesting, however, as advancing issues edged decliners, showing there was more strength in than the -1+% losses in SP500, DJ30, and SP600 indicated. Volume was lower on both exchanges, but after the Wednesday blowout you would expect that. NYSE volume was still very strong at 1.9B shares. That along with the stall at resistance suggests some churn, the high volume turnover that shows the sellers were selling as fast as the buyers were buying. After a run higher that can indicate the move is tired and ready for a test. To that you almost have to say 'duh.'

CHARTS. As noted, SP500 and NASDAQ hit the same resistance points again at the higher open and once more faded. We were going to have some issues here anyway so a test is normal. The Fed's addition to the game plan, however, added an overlay of questions. With the Fed action and its 'nothing will fail under my watch' attitude you would anticipate just a pullback and not a rollover and drive back to the lows; something more of a test of the November lows on SP500. We will watch how the sellers come in. They took a shot early but could not follow through, but they did take a shot, something they have not done in a couple of weeks.

LEADERSHIP. Commodities were hot with metals strong, gapping higher at the open and not giving up much ground. Agriculture gapped as well. Those are the world recovery plays. Most other leaders were in pullback mode and for now it is just a pullback. Leaders in financials such as GS and WFC, semiconductors, techs (outside of software after ORCL's dividend) all pulled back but just modestly and mostly on lower volume. This rally and the current pullback (all one day's worth) will give current leaders a chance to test and set up again (e.g. AMZN), and it will help emerging leaders form up their bases as well for the next wave of stocks to support a continued upside move. That means the pullback will need to be somewhat orderly but the market always has some surprises to throw at you.

LIBOR continues its improvement.

The trickle is turning more to a flow now as dollar LIBOR rates decline at a faster pace. All were down Thursday but the big moves were in the 'long end'. The 1-month LIBOR rate fell to 0.52% from 0.55% Wednesday. The 3-month fell to 1.23% from 1.29%. The moves are getting serious as they show the same kind of action as they did when they thawed following the original TALF initiative's announcement. Along with the commercial debt market improving there is some welcome news in the credit arena.

Devaluing your way to prosperity.

Back during the Bush administration we got to rail on some mundane issues such as that administration's consistent lack of support for the dollar. It subscribed to the old Baker school of thought Bush 1 used, thinking we could weaken the dollar, make our exports look more attractive to foreign buyers, and then voila, riches for our exporters.

That worked well didn't it. Scholars that actually have good economic track records, say Milton Friedman, show clearly how you cannot debase your currency into prosperity. That theory of cheaper exports sells some more goods but it is similar to raising taxes to raise tax revenues: it works at first because the money is there to tax. After that behavior changes, money is taken out of the economy and put into shelters, the economy slows, taxable income falls, and thus tax revenues. Higher rates, lower revenues. This is not theory. The world economies are replete with examples of failed attempts to gain an edge on prosperity using currency weakening policies.

The effects of what the federal government is doing is finally taking a serious toll on the dollar. A good rally from July 2008 as countries ran to the dollar for safety reasons was tested in December when some of the policies of the new Administration to come were getting aired. It was more than tested; it was nearly gutted. Then the dollar recovered on more fears in the world. It retreated in March in what looked like a normal pullback. The past two sessions, however, gutted the dollar. Massive, massive rises from the low 1.2 euros to 1.3664 euros Thursday.

At the same time oil shot over $50/bbl, closing at 51.25, up $3.14. This despite the big build in crude and gasoline inventories and OPEC refusing to cut production further. Gold exploded higher, rising to 959.10, up $70 Thursday. A lower dollar and you have more expensive commodities. Copper, steel, and just about anything hard jumped higher Thursday. The weaker dollar takes more dollars to buy the goods and the trillions of dollars at the printing press suggests inflation down the road despite the Fed's continued denial of the inflation potential. Gold didn't jump $70 just on a weaker dollar.

It is not pretty and if the Fed and federal government are successful in getting us out of this credit induced 'decession' (our new word since people get mad when we say depression) we face potentially massive inflation. I don't want to go through that again and I don't want my kids to either. The worrisome part is that we may have dug a hole too deep to avoid it. Right now all we can do is work through it because it certainly does not appear that the Obama economic team is worried about that far into the future despite talk of making structural economic change. Of course we now know what that means and it is not the lofty 'make us great again' rhetoric uttered to the cameras.

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 43.68; +3.62

VXN: 42.46; +2.66

VXO: 45.29; +4.22

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.77; +0.12

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.

This is a historical milestone in the making. Bulls are impressively low considering we are in general a very optimistic country. The few bulls is a positive indication because it means most everyone that is getting out is out and there is money on the sidelines. In other words the ammunition boxes are full and as the market recovers investors will start opening up the boxes and firing. Little by little they will be forced to put more money into the market and there will be some rushes higher in fear they are missing the train. You relish times when sentiment is so negative because it means some tremendous buys are setting up. This could indeed be the opportunity of a lifetime, and you take advantage of it by buying quality stocks and letting them work for you as long as they will. If we can hold them for years, great.

Bulls: 28.4%. Nothing like a rally to bring around the bulls, but not a very big run from 26.4% last week and not even hitting the 29.7% from the week prior. Not a lot of confidence just yet and that is fine. Still well down from 43.0%, the current top of the recovery as the market rallied off the November low. A rise from 25.3% in December and quickly starting to fall once the market encountered the January selling. Bullishness bottomed on this leg lower at 21.3% in November 2008. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator. This is smashing that. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006, the last major round of selling ahead of this 2007 top, near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.

Bears: 44.3%. Bigger drop for the bears, falling from 47.2%. Very solid still, showing plenty of worry. 47.2% is the peak for the run this year but is still below the December and October peaks. Hit the 34's on the lows, falling from 38.5% and 46.2% in mid-December. Still above the 35% level considered bullish for stocks, but as with bulls, still well below the level considered bearish for stocks. Bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment on this move. 35% is the level that historically indicates excessive pessimism. As with the bulls the jump in bears did its job after hitting 44.7% in the third week of March. Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). This is a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.

NASDAQ

Stats: -7.74 points (-0.52%) to close at 1483.48

Volume: 2.354B (-16.72%)

Up Volume: 885.393M (-1.627B)

Down Volume: 1.449B (+1.178B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.21 to 1

Previous Session: Advancers led 2.49 to 1

New Highs: 12 (-4)

New Lows: 31 (-7)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

A gap higher right up to the Wednesday high and then a retreat all session. Modest losses and lower volume so the action was orderly and well contained. Always like that on tests but that was just the first day. A few more sessions back to 1400 and the December low would be an excellent pullback and put some of the nice leaders in nice position to rally as well as likely bring around some more leadership quality patterns from other stocks. So far nice and orderly, but it was just the first day.

SOX (-0.88%) faded back from the February peak but a very modest decline. It is at the top of the range, however, and if the sellers are going to come in, as with the other indices, this is where it would happen. Not expecting these leaders to get gutted and will use a pullback to look for new opportunities in them.

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg

SP500/NYSE

Stats: -10.31 points (-1.3%) to close at 784.04

NYSE Volume: 1.952B (-6.03%)

Up Volume: 766.529M (-1.089B)

Down Volume: 1.172B (+959.297M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.04 to 1. NYSE indices were down but the breadth was not. More strength than the numbers showed.

Previous Session: Advancers led 4.11 to 1

New Highs: 5 (-5)

New Lows: 30 (-42)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

Rallied to 803 and then turned back down. The tap at the 50 day EMA on the high again and then some selling. Volume was still quite strong even if it was lower. The sellers were taking a shot at the financials. Couldn't do any significant damage on the session but even with the positive breadth we have to watch how the downside volume grows or not. There was some churn Thursday and one day means little in itself.

SP600 (-1.17%) didn't quite make it to the 50 day EMA before it turned down. Pretty modest losses and a hold at the November close at 208 (about 9 points lower) would be a good point to rally back form.

DJ30

The Dow bumped the November low once more (7752, 7548 on the Thursday high) and turned back. Volume was still very high. Definitely some churn by the Dow at its November closing low but not enough to get us in on the downside play on Thursday. Still ready to move in given this high volume churn but it still may be just a move down to the late February low (7100ish) before it finds support. Can still make money off of that but will have to be a bit more nimble.

Stats: -85.78 points (-1.15%) to close at 7400.8

Volume: 559M shares Thursday versus 584M shares Wednesday. Strong volume still. The sellers were at work Thursday but could not put a big stamp on the day.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg

No schedule economic reports Friday, just expiration. After a week full of some pretty big news expiration may seem kind of quiet. A lot of trades were closed and rolled Wednesday afternoon, but with the Fed showing more audacity in fighting the decession Friday could see quite a bit of action as positions are adjusted again thanks to the Fed.

But for the Fed's intervention Wednesday, the patterns seen on DJ30, SP500 and IWM would beg a short for Monday. A 20% run higher on SP500 and a couple of bumps into key resistance. Without the Fed bid there would be penalty flags thrown for piling on the downside.

That doesn't mean we won't look at moving into those downside positions if the opportunity arises; even with a 'routine' pullback to logical support we can make some good money. Just means we also have to be ready for quick turns. We may just take some positions to the downside as good risk/reward plays given the test of resistance and the good stop loss point/firewall the resistance represents. Then if we get a gap lower Monday as the sellers take their shot we can get some quick gain to bank as the market pulls back to set up some more upside.

The market is still trying to figure out just what the Fed action means. The dollar, oil, gold and other commodities have their take on it. The other sectors such as financials, tech and chips still have to get a grip on it. Expecting more testing as they do, but as noted, they were ripe for a test anyway so we watch how the test evolves and if volume is under control and support holds. If that is the case we look for a rebound after testing support such as the November low for SP500.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1483.48

Resistance:

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low. Cracking but not broken

The 90 day SMA at 1493

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

1666 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The 50 day SMA at 1467

1460 is the February low

The 50 day EMA at 1461

1434 is the January low (1440.86 closing)

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

The 18 day EMA at 1417

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 784.04

Resistance:

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day SMA is at 801 tapped on the Wednesday high and again Thursday.

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 834

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

768 is the 2002 bear market low

The 18 day EMA at 755

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7400.80

Resistance:

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

The 50 day EMA at 7621

7694 is the February intraday low

7702 is the July 2002 low

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8088

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

The 18 day EMA at 7213

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 16 - Monday

March Empire Manufacturing (8:30): -38.23 actual versusl -32.0 expected, -34.65 prior

Net Long-Term TIC Flows, January (9:00): -43B actual versus $34.8B prior

Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 70.9% actual versus 71.1% expected, 71.9% prior (revised from 72.0%)

Industrial Production, February (9:15): -1.4% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.9% prior, revised from -1.8%

March 17 - Tuesday

February Building Permits (8:30): 547K actual versus 500K expected, 531K prior

Housing Starts, February (8:30): 583K actual versus 450K expected, 477K prior

Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior

PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.8% prior

March 18 - Wednesday

February Core CPI (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

CPI, February (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior

Current Account Balance, Q4 (8:30): -$132.8B actual versus -$136.7B expected, -$1.81.3B prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 03/13 (10:30): +2M actual versus +749K prior

FOMC Rate Decision (14:15): No change in rates, big facilities announced.

March 19 - Thursday

03/14 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 646K actual versus 655k expected, 658K prior (revised from 654K)

Leading Indicators, February (10:00): -0.4% actual versus -0.6% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.4%)

Philadelphia Fed, March (10:00): -35.0 actual versus -30.0 expected, -41.3 prior

Upside:

Play Date: 03/19/2009

ADI (Analog Devices--$20.28; -0.33; optionable): Semiconductors

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html

EARNINGS: 02/18/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very nice 7 week base has formed, setting up the next upside move following the run off the December low. Might take another day or two to finish the base but a nice set up and want to have the play ready to go when it makes the break higher.

Volume: 5.734M Avg Volume: 6.01M

BUY POINT: $20.88 Volume=8.2M Target=$23.95 Stop=$19.57

POSITION: ADI FD - June $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adi.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$27.06; -0.52; optionable): China travel bookings

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html

After Hours: $27.19

EARNINGS: 02/09/2009

STATUS: Test breakout. CTRP was always a favorite for us, capable of strong long runs, and it can do it fast. It had hard times with most of the market but bottomed in November and then worked laterally in a 20 to 24ish trading range. It broke out last week and is moving laterally the past four sessions, forming a handle of sorts to the breakout. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of the stock, and when CTRP makes the break higher we are ready to move in.

Volume: 498.616K Avg Volume: 836.926K

BUY POINT: $27.76 Volume=1.2M Target=$32.88 Stop=$26.22

POSITION: QCT FE - June $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctrp.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

IBM (International Business Machines--$92.66; +0.71; optionable)

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html

EARNINGS: 04/20/2009

STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Buying JAVA but that hardly impacted its nice 7 week pattern formed after the move higher off the November low. Moving laterally the past week to form the handle and looking for a break higher to move in on IBM and play a run to 100, bank some gains and then see how it responds at that point.

Volume: 9.9M Avg Volume: 10.984M

BUY POINT: $93.72 Volume=12M Target=$99.85 Stop=$90.22

POSITION: IBM DR - Apr. $90c (62 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ibm.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

SY (Sybase--$29.91; +0.88; optionable): Application software

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sy.html

EARNINGS: 01/28/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher on huge trade Thursday in sympathy with the ORCL dividend announcement. The move jumped SY out of its 7 week handle to its nicely formed 23 week base. The handle is something of a cup with handle inside the bigger cup with handle. Money flow is screaming higher and we are ready to move in as SY continues higher and then finish the buy when it tests the breakout move.

Volume: 3.846M Avg Volume: 1.534M

BUY POINT: $30.18 Volume=1.8M Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.45

POSITION: SY FF - June $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sy.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/19/2009

CECO (Career Education--$21.51; -0.79; optionable): Education and training services

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html

After Hours: $21.51

EARNINGS: 02/19/2009

STATUS: Head and shoulders. Bearish 8 week topping pattern looks ready to send CECO down for a test toward its 200 day SMA at 18. A big flop lower Monday on very strong volume was followed by a low volume rebound through Wednesday and a fade to close at the 50 day EMA Thursday. Looking for a break lower on better trade to start it on the move lower. Money flow is falling ahead of price, and as CECO follows it we are looking for a 48%ish gain on that move.

Volume: 1.772M Avg Volume: 2.528M

BUY POINT: $21.22 Volume=2.6M Target=$19.15 Stop=$21.81

POSITION: CUY PX - Apr. $22.50p (-53 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ceco.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

CELG (Celgene--$45.70; -1.47; optionable): Biotechnology

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html

After Hours: $45.80

EARNINGS: 01/29/2009

STATUS: Continuing downtrend. CELG rallied up to the 50 day EMA (48.98) and stalled there over the past week, fading back to try and hold support near 45. Has trended lower since August 2008 and it looks ready to trend lower again after it breaks lower here on some better trade. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.

Volume: 5.056M Avg Volume: 5.618M

BUY POINT: $45.34 Volume=6.4M Target=$42.26 Stop=$46.71

POSITION: LQH PI - Apr. $45p (-42 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/celg.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

PG (Procter & Gamble--$46.31; -1.71; optionable): Consumer products

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html

EARNINGS: 01/30/2009

STATUS: Continuing downtrend. After a nasty January and February decline PG rallied the past two weeks, clearing the 18 day EMA (47.56) this week but rolling back over Thursday. Looks ready for another fling to the downside. A run to the target lands a 42%ish gain.

Volume: 16.17M Avg Volume: 15.717M

BUY POINT: $46.15 Volume=18M Target=$44.11 Stop=$47.08

POSITION: PG PW - Apr. $47.50p (-52 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pg.html

Play Date: 03/19/2009

UNH (Unitedhealth Group--$21.30; -0.65; optionable): Health care plans

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unh.html

EARNINGS: 04/21/2009

STATUS: Put. Horrid dive lower in late February on strong volume, then a rebound in March. As it moved higher volume faded, and the past week it has been basically nonexistent as UNH moved up to resistance from 22 to the 50 day EMA at 23.23. Started turning over Thursday and looking for UNH to continue to the downside and pick up some volume along the way. A move to the target and we have a 49%ish gain.

Volume: 8.968M Avg Volume: 13.109M

BUY POINT: $20.66 Volume=14M Target=$18.55 Stop=$21.33

POSITION: UHB PM - Apr. $22p (-56 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/unh.html