主题：【纽约时报专栏】Let Us Pray ――关于中国经济 -- jlanu

作者FRIEDMAN，三次普利策奖得主。

May 2, 2004

OP-ED COLUMNIST

Let Us Pray

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

OKYO

Here's what I learned in Tokyo: If you're the leader of Japan, America, Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines or the European Union and you're not going to bed each night saying the following prayer for China, then you're not paying attention:

"Dear Heavenly Father, please keep the leader of China, President Hu Jintao, healthy and on an even keel. Please see to it that he moves steadily and carefully toward restructuring the Chinese banking system and ridding it of its huge overhang of bad loans and corruption, before there is a real meltdown that would be felt around the world. Give him the wisdom to cool the overheated Chinese economy without creating a recession that would prompt China to stop importing like crazy and start just exporting like crazy. And Father, forgive us for all the bad words we used in recent years to describe China's leaders ― terms like `Butchers of Beijing.' We did not mean it. We meant to say `Bankers of Beijing,' because their economy is now fueling growth all over Asia, bolstering Japan and sucking up imports from everywhere. May China's leaders live to 120, and may they enjoy 9 percent G.D.P. growth every year of their lives. Thank you, Father. Amen."

The most striking thing about being in Asia today is hearing how much more important China's growth engine has become for companies all across the region ― and well beyond it. When Chinese authorities told banks last week to cut back their wild lending, commodity prices and stock markets tumbled all over the world. News that China is having regular blackouts because it can't buy enough crude oil is helping push up gasoline prices the world over.

While three years ago the Bush team came to office growling about no longer coddling China ― the way those "wimpy" Clintonites did ― that talk has disappeared from the Bush vocabulary. It's not just business as usual now. It's business only.

To some degree the world is getting hooked on China ― its cheap labor, its voracious appetite for commodities and capital (over $50 billion in foreign direct investment last year) and its emerging middle class. The more hooked we become, the less the world can tolerate any sort of prolonged instability there. If the China bubble bursts, it will be the mother of all burst bubbles. Which is why we need to pray that China's leaders will have the skill to cool things down, just enough but not too much, without some wheels falling off.

"A lot of the world's stability or instability is resting on the leadership in Beijing ― there is no question about that," argues Richard Koo, chief economist for Nomura Research Institute. But, he insists, "Chinese leaders understand what world they are living in. They have a general equilibrium view of the world ― that what they do affects us all and then comes back to affect them."

That seems true. But one of the ways that China has grown so rapidly in the last decade has been by decentralizing authority to regions and letting governors or mayors attract whatever investment they can. It is not clear anymore how much the center can slow things down.

And considering the huge amounts of foreign investment that have flowed into China in such a short time, "it's very hard to think that they could have invested that much money efficiently," remarked Robert Feldman, managing director in Tokyo for Morgan Stanley. "So the senior leadership is scared, because if they have a hard landing from bad loans you have a regime problem. [But] when they tried to slow the economy, they got real push back from the regions, who said, `You in Beijing have all that infrastructure. Why shouldn't we have a new bridge or road?' "

Given how opaque China's decision-making is, it's hard to predict how Chinese leaders will balance their obligation to behave in a way that promotes global equilibrium with their need to create millions of jobs each year in order to stay in power.

One can only say three things: 1. They've done a pretty good job so far. 2. The job gets harder every day. 3. No one will be immune to the fallout. The relationship of the world to China right now reminds me of that old banker's rule: If a client owes you $1,000, that's his problem. If a client owes you $1 million, that's your problem. China's stability is our problem.

Heavenly Father . . .

银监会出手严厉 三条窗口指导精神严控贷款

2004-04-30 09:08:00.0 千龙网

　　近日一条关于“银行从4月27日到五一期间停止发放任何企业和个人贷款”的传言让很多人坐卧不安。为此，银监会昨天正式发表了三条“窗口指导精神”，对该传言进行了表态。不过许多业内人士还是估计，银监会首次如此直接地采取措施，可能意味着金融监管部门近期还有可能出台更为严厉的措施，而下一步最有可能的就是在5月份加息。

　　三条“窗口指导精神”严控贷款

　　银监会三条“窗口指导精神”包括：一、针对目前一些商业银行贷款扩张较快的情况，银监会要求商业银行在五一长假前不要突击发放5月份的贷款，但对于已经签订贷款合同的，要严格按照贷款合同要求发放贷款。

　　二、对于符合国家产业政策和市场准入条件的项目，要继续给予大力支持；对于煤炭、电力、石油、运输、供水等公共设施、基础设施项目，要给予重点倾斜。

　　三、各商业银行要转变观念，认真落实科学发展观，树立资本充足和充足拨备的审慎管理理念，修改完善对分支机构的考核指标，强化资本约束机制。

　　传言并非空穴来风

　　在整个表态中，银监会发言人强调，凡与上述精神不符的消息都是不准确的。但是记者随后对几位银行界人士采访中发现，他们都一定程度上承认曾有此事。一家股份制银行的人士表示，4月27日总行曾接到监管部门的相关电话。而27日下午5点左右，一家银行重庆分行接到总行转发主管部门特急文件，要求立即停止一切贷款，包括对企业和对个人的贷款。下一步如何做，五一节后等进一步通知。该人士还说，以“硬着陆”方式叫停一切贷款，这是有史以来的第一次。

　　监管部门缘何对贷款采取“急刹车”？有金融专家分析，为防止投资过热、贷款增长过快，央行和银监会煞费苦心；提高房地产开发贷款门槛；三次提高存款准备金率，从6%提高到7%，再到7.5%；对部分城市五大行业贷款进行调查；宣布实行差额准备金率等。而这些政策的效力显现还需要时间，采取严控措施也在情理之中。但是银监会此举到底是什么原因，目前很难评判。

　　下一步会不会是加息？

　　其中，4月25日在博鳌亚洲论坛2004年年会上，中国人民银行副行长吴晓灵对未来政策走势已经有所预示。吴晓灵说：“中国人民银行提高银行存款准备金率是善意的、温和的，希望各有关部门自觉控制，以免矛盾激化，导致央行采取大家不愿看到的更强硬措施。”她还警告说：“不要因为央行现在出手还比较温和，就想趁这个机会赶快‘干一把’(加紧投资)，导致经济出现大的波动，造成今后的政策更加严厉。”“不要和央行博弈，大家应同舟共济”。

　　央行今后更加严厉的政策会是什么，许多业内人士都在猜测。有关专家分析说，要防止通胀，控制经济过热，需要推出新的利率政策。特别对于房地产等行业来说，提高存款准备金的影响毕竟是间接的，提高贷款利率作用会更明显。有业内人士透露，目前已有几种“更严厉强硬措施”的方案，其中一种方案就是先提高贷款利率，有可能在5月份实行。而此轮调整过后，有可能导致各地房价回落。

外资银行受中资银行收紧贷款影响也喊缺钱

2004-04-30 08:54:00.0 新闻晨报

　　正当人们密切关注中资银行收紧贷款规模，力求增量为零的同时，外资银行的放贷情况也日趋收紧。

　　记者昨天获悉，一些未能从中资银行贷到款的企业，在转投外资银行求援时，同样被婉拒。外资银行给出的理由是：缺钱。

　　“昨天，我意外地接到一家股份制商业银行的电话，问我们有没有意向购买他们的一些资产。这些资产并非不良资产，只是这家银行要在短期内降低并控制贷款规模，必须抛掉超额部分的资产。”一位不愿透露姓名的外资银行管理层人士向记者透露说。

　　据介绍，这家中资银行在提出出售部分资产业务意向时，还开出一个非常明晰的“菜单”，让外资银行选择，并且声明此项交易必须买断，日后中资银行将不再回购。

　　一般银行出售资产，都会类似典当一样保留回购意愿，如今要求买家短期迅速买断，此举颇耐人寻味。

　　显然，此时一些中资银行正急切地希望得到外资银行的“某种帮助”。

　　从今年年初开始，陆续有汇丰银行、花旗银行、东亚银行、恒生银行和渣打银行等10多家外资银行取得了向中资企业提供人民币服务的执照。

　　“别人可能以为我们是隔岸观火，但事实上，中资银行收紧放贷规模也已经影响到我们为中资企业提供贷款。”一家外资银行驻沪人士面露难色。

　　众所周知，银行拿钱贷给客户，前提是银行自己有钱。外资银行的钱从哪里来？主要有三部分组成：总行当初拨给分行的营运准备金、外资企业客户存款(包括Q FII )以及同业借款，其中同业借款占较大比例，而且人民币的同业借款大多依赖中资银行。

　　据悉，外资银行在每个城市性分行的营业准备金大约1到2亿元人民币，这笔钱主要供外资银行“自用”。外资银行贷给客户的主要是后两项，而“同业借款”则是外资银行贷人民币给中资企业的主要资金来源。

　　“眼下各大中资银行收紧规模，并力求增量为零，除了两家大型国有银行尚继续和外资银行间有同业借款业务往来，股份制商业银行几乎已经与外资银行中断了借款关系。”一家外资银行信贷部人士告诉记者。

　　少了中资银行的借款，单凭外资银行这1到2个亿的“家底”，又能为中资企业贷多少款呢？

　　不过，也有一些“财大气粗”的外资银行对此并不是特别担忧，持此态度的外资银行不乏花旗、渣打和汇丰等。“我们能从一些大型外企客户那里得到足够的存款。”渣打的新闻发言人告诉记者。

不知道该怎么办，但是防止经济过热是必须的。

前段时间天天在帮印度说话，鼓吹oursourcing对美国有好处。