主题：【原创】目前油价的认识 -- oiler2
家园 【原创】目前油价的认识 油价在昨天碰了59后反弹， 很多人又开始叫59就是底了，我觉得致少还有5块钱的下落空间，毕竟现在没有世界新热点，冬天又还没来。冬季燃油取暖是用油大户，现在还没开始。
这几个星期的恐慌性抛售，使得很多股票到了其年度最低点。所谓炒股票的理想就是“在最低点买，到最高点卖”，现在真到了最低点，估计很多人又手软了。
至于哪些现在套住了的，根本不用着急，还会回来的，还会大赚的。你买的是石油公司股票，你就实际拥有石油公司的百分之一或千分之一（或万分之一），你公司的储量在那里，价值就在那里。一时的市场波动不可能影响你公司的地下储量。这跟所谓高科技有着本质的不同。.COM没有了，是啥都没了。这个不是。
家园 请教一下 传统的经济学认为，价格是由供求关系的，石油估计也不例外。
既然如此，只要统计一下库存（不是地下的储存，而是已经开采出来，而又未用的。），统计一下用油量，再加上产量，是否就可以很容易推算出石油的价格呢？
- 复 请教一下
家园 地下库存是战略数据，事关国家安全 所以公开的都要多方考证，靠自己分析。这么说，如果你是俄国，其实库存没多少，就快用完了，你会广而告之吗？还是尽量利用自己的影响力，在用完之前为自己筹谋最多的福利？
沙地阿拉伯最大的油田库存公开数据，从70年代到现在都没怎么变化过，可能吗？难道没有损耗？原因就是地缘政治，大家都被迫撒谎，有些油田可能因为就快枯竭尽量报大数，有的买家用家为了压抑价格虚报油田；倒过来说，有的炒家为了炒高油价故意报小了油田库存。
从拥有油田资源的国家角度来说，无论库存剩下多少，他们永远不会跟你说就快用完的。原因是，这个消息泄露得越早，其他的替代品发展越快，而这个国家能够利用石油增强影响力的可能越小，越快被边缘化，明知道这个国家就快没油，你还睬他做甚？所以油国的库存只会往高处说，但是又不会说得很高，因为说得太高了要影响油价。
家园 这个说得有道理。
- 复 请教一下
家园 这倒是个返朴归真的想法 只是牵扯因素太多，就说现在库藏量一点，就不好统计。另外主要是国际和地缘政治掺合进来，使得近期预测基本不可能。
很多投资公司多赌某一点，让某人出来说，油价要涨（跌），一旦赌准，名利皆收，赌不准，大家过一阵就忘了，再赌下一个阶段。
这种方法预测长期比较合适，掌握一点，底下储量越来越少，用量越来越大，这是所谓基本事实，谁也无法否认，跟对顶角相等类似的公理。
有了这个基本公理，我们就知道，投资能源长线一定赚钱！就这么简单，所以叫返朴归真。
家园 那就换个想法 既然库存不好统计，期货市场总可以了吧。期货市场里有两种人，一种是炒家，最终接手的是用家。用家买多少油，总可以统计吧？
如此，不就可以估算需求量了吗？
另外还有一个替换能源的问题，油价上去了，油砂就变得可行了，甚至 煤变油也可行了。如此，供应量又上升了，按照供求关系，是否价格又会回落呢？
另外也有个消费者的问题，油价高涨，这两年澳洲的小型车极好卖，无他，唯省油也。换言之，油价上去了，会迫使消费者考虑提高用油效率，变相减少用油需求，这样是否也会对油价造成压力呢？
呵呵，小弟外行而已，净问些傻问题，油人兄莫怪。
- 复 请教一下
家园 先抛个砖 可能没有那么简单，还得加上供求量变化的期望值，如果市场认为供给会减少，需求会增加，价格就回上扬；反之亦然。
这个期望值，常常和实际情况脱节，心理的成分不少，所以这个问题属于arts，not of science.
- 复 先抛个砖
家园 这个还是个信息不对称的问题啊 假如供求的信息是透明的，期望值就不会波动太厉害了。
嘻嘻，砖头的不怕！
家园 抛砖是为引玉，没料到砸到你了？ 其实好多信息都是公开透明的，但是各人怎么看，怎么解释，都有不同意见；何况就是同一个人，今天和昨天的看法都不一样。
庄家固然有很多操纵消息影响市场的做法，但是那些基本的数据都是可以从公开的来源拿到的，而且没有一言堂，独立分析家的意见也是可以看得到的。只不过庄家更隐蔽的做法是通过一时操纵市场价格，造成心理上的影响，再加上似是而非的托儿分析师、新闻报道等传播假相，导致不少人被蒙蔽。但是这些人自己也该受到批评，因为他们要么不坚定，忘掉了基本数据与事实，要么太懒惰，不做分析和思考，糊里糊涂当了人家的俘虏。
家园 【文摘】尼日利亚打仗，油价涨了 不好意思，只有英文：
Oil rebounds on Nigerian violence
Firefight erupts near Shell facility; crude ends a two-day slide and reverses earlier sell-off sparked by bulging U.S. supplies.
October 4 2006: 3:58 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices rebounded from eight-month lows Wednesday, ending higher after renewed violence racked OPEC member Nigeria.
U.S. light crude for October delivery settled up 73 cents at 59.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil fell as low as $57.75 earlier in the session after the weekly inventory report showed a big build in U.S. crude and gasoline supplies.
But the Nigerian violence ended that slide.
Nigerian militants and troops engaged in a major firefight near an oil pumping station operated by Royal Dutch Shell in the eastern part of the Niger Delta on Wednesday, militants said.
The militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta said it killed nine soldiers and seized two military boats during a 90-minute firefight with troops in the oil heartland of Africa's top oil producer.
The group said in an e-mail to the media that it was sending another 500 fighters into Rivers State in the eastern delta to begin a "number of strategic attacks" on the oil industry.
"If there is more fighting there [in Nigeria], our supplies of light, sweet crude will be directly affected," Mark Waggoner, president of Excel Futures in Huntington Beach, California, told Reuters.
Nigeria, the world's eighth-largest oil exporter, has seen 500,000 barrels of its prized sweet, light crude shut in as militants from a poor but oil-rich region battle with the government for a greater share of the nation's oil wealth.
Bulging supplies
Earlier in the day, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels. Analysts were looking for a decline of 500,000 barrels, according to Reuters.
Distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel fuel and closely watched ahead of the winter months, rose by 200,000 barrels, while gasoline supplies rose by 1.2 million barrels. Analysts were looking for a build of 700,000 barrels in gasoline and 1.5 million barrel gain in distillates.
EIA said supplies of gasoline, distillates and crude are either above or well above average levels for this time of year.
Oil prices have slid in recent weeks, losing more than 25 percent from an all-time, noninflation-adjusted trading high of $78.40 set in July, as tensions eased in the Middle East, oil entered its traditional low-demand season and speculative money left the market.
On Tuesday crude closed below the $60 mark for the first time in nearly seven months, pushed down by predictions of brimming U.S. stockpiles and no major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.
But the quick slide has sparked concern among some oil-producing countries, and traders took notice Wednesday when OPEC heavyweight Kuwait said it may join Venezuela and Nigeria in voluntarily cutting production.
"Kuwait may voluntarily lower [oil output] in order to maintain the market's stability," Sheikh Ali al-Jarrah al-Sabah told Reuters in an interview.
"The current situation with prices and the big retreat that has taken place is uncomfortable for OPEC nations," he added.
Pressed on price, he told Reuters $60 a barrel for U.S. crude was comfortable, but $50 was worrying.
But Sal Gilbertie, an energy trader at Fimat in New York, said even an OPEC cut might not cause more than a short-term uptick in the price of crude.
On Tuesday OPEC President Edmund Daukoru called on other OPEC members to follow the lead set by Nigeria and Venezuela in cutting exports.
Last week Venezuela and Nigeria said they would cut production by about 170,000 barrels per day.
But the announcement had little effect on price, with some analysts calling the move merely an attempt to hide the fact that neither country is producing up to its full OPEC quota anyway because of years of civil strife or neglected oil field investment.
The world uses nearly 84 million barrels of oil per day, with more than a third of it coming from OPEC.
Although that number may make the announced cut from Venezuela and Nigeria seem trivial, the world can only produce between 1 and 2 million barrels more per day than it consumes.
It is this tightness between supply and demand, and doubt that future supply will match demand growth, that is the main reason crude prices have tripled over the past four years.
家园 【文摘】欧佩克成员国可能已非正式同意减产抑制油价 欧佩克成员国可能已非正式同意减产抑制油价下跌
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http://finance.sina.com.cn 2006年10月05日 09:21 世华财讯
[世华财讯]消息人士称，欧佩克成员国已非正式同意有必要每日至少减少100万桶的原油产出，以抑制油价下跌。
综合外电10月5日报道，消息人士称，欧佩克(OPEC)成员国已非正式同意该组织有必要每日至少减少100万桶的原油产出，或至少4%的产油，以确保OPEC一揽子原油价格维持在每桶50-55美元的底线上方。
受这一消息影响，NYMEX原油期货在5日亚洲电子盘中回升至每桶60美元上方。自8月初以来，NYMEX原油期货已下跌近20美元。北京时间09:20，NYMEX 11月期原油上涨0.67美元，报每桶60.08美元。
据英国金融时报道，OPEC多数成员国支持在未来数周自动减产。
报道称，科威特、伊朗、委内瑞拉、尼日利亚与利比亚已非正式同意自动减产，阿联酋也宣布将加入减产行列，反观，沙特对自动减产甚表不满，但过去二个月来每日已减产20万桶原油。
报道指出，OPEC 12月将于尼日利亚首府阿布加集会，届时OPEC可望正式同意减产。
家园 【文摘】OPEC said to agree to 1M OPEC said to agree to 1M barrel-a-day cut
Report: Informal accord to reduce production aimed at keeping price between $50-$55 a barrel.
October 4 2006: 11:03 PM EDT
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed informally the need to cut production by at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to keep the price of its crudes above $50-$55, the Financial Times reported Thursday without naming sources.
It said the majority of the 11-member cartel supported a voluntary reduction, already undertaken last week by Nigeria and Venezuela, in an effort to stem a slide that has wiped nearly $20 or almost 25 percent off the price of crude since early August.
Special Reportfull coverage
OPEC said to agree to 1M barrel-a-day cut
Oil rebounds on Nigerian violence
U.S.: Gas prices lowest since February
OPEC president wants cuts in production
A deal could be ratified at its next meeting in mid-December, the FT said. It quoted "OPEC insiders" saying that Kuwait, Iran and Libya had informally agreed to join Nigeria and Venezuela in cutting back, while the UAE is likely to do so also.
But it also reported that Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter and most influential OPEC member, was unhappy with the broad move towards voluntary cutbacks and would prefer a public position when the group meets in the Nigerian capital Abuja in December.
However, the FT noted that Saudi Arabia had already quietly cut production by about 200,000 bpd over the past two months.
Oil prices rallied sharply on the report, with U.S. crude spiking more than 60 cents higher to above $60 a barrel.
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ali al-Jarrah al-Sabah raised the chance of broader action Wednesday, telling Reuters that Kuwait may also cut back if prices continued to fall sharply - the first of the powerful Gulf producers to take that position.
"OPEC is going to defend a price floor for its oil of $50-$55 a barrel," the FT quoted one OPEC official as saying. Most OPEC members have avoided putting any specific number on the price at which they would cut production, fearful that setting a specific level too high might upset consuming countries.
The OPEC basket of crudes stood at $55.27 a barrel on Tuesday and is typically around $4-$5 below Western benchmarks.
Oil traders said Wednesday that a rise in Saudi Arabia's monthly crude oil prices to European refiners may have signalled the kingdom's desire to reduce shipments by making them less price competitive with other grades.
Nigeria and Venezuela agreed to take 170,000 bpd of crude off the market from the beginning of this month, a token gesture against the cartel's total 30 million bpd production, and traders say they are waiting to hear Saudi Arabia's position.
Stocks of leading oil companies, including Exxon Mobil (Charts), Chevron (Charts), ConocoPhillips (Charts) and BP (Charts), ended higher Wednesday.
家园 半年前的观点，回落至50-60，虽是暂时的，看来成立了。 商品期货就是这样，没有永涨不落的头寸，石油等亦是如此，这样才有更大的空间可以周转，吸引更多的入市资金，后面也就有了更多的机会。
二油兄观点独特，且是石油界人士，但并不一味的做死多头，确比较适合做投资。
以中长期走势来看，石油商品还是有搞头的。诚如二油兄所言，玩股票的朋友还是要重视公司的经营及储量等……。跌时重质，拿到好的公司，还是不用发愁的。
