主题：【探讨】2005美元走势 -- 西风陶陶
家园 【探讨】2005美元走势 牛方：
1。美国经济持续增长，2005联储继续加息；而与此同时，欧洲日本尚未稳定复苏不说了，连经济增长强劲的原材料出口国如澳州，加拿大由于出口放慢，经济开始放缓，加息周期已经结束，甚至可能进入减息周期。所以美元和主要货币的息差将减少。
2。美国的财政赤字将由于经济增长和BUSH政府的克制下出现改善。（这个俺不确定，将在熊方表明〕
熊方：
1。BUSH政府不会干预美元下跌，因为美元下跌对大公司有利；
2。伊拉克战场毫无好转迹象，还是个无底洞，还有伊朗；乌克兰普京被过了一道，一定会在中东或者朝鲜讨个说法；台海，正如助理国务卿所说，是个大地雷。军费开支可能比预算中的大，而且有随予随取的特权，造成财政开支的很大不确定性。
3。新保守主义过分自大的鹰派外交造成的地缘政治的不确定性也会影响油价，从而影响贸易平衡。
请同学们补充。
家园 就技术分析上看美元现在是20年来的最底线。 91、93、96都跌到这附近反弹，其中93跌到79.12才反弹，也就10%的空间。
家园 支持熊方。美国会继续放任美元走软。 疲软的美元会吸引大量外国直接投资，尤其是来自欧元区国家的投资。同样，在零售品市场，美国吸引大量来自欧洲的个人消费。另外，疲软的美元带来油价实际上的下跌，因为美元是石油的主要结算单位。当然，美国为了维持其经济大国的形象和地位，会将美元汇率控制在一个其可接受的水平。
家园 美元继续有序走贬的可能性是很大的，不过 还取决于对欧元、日元和人民币的走势。
2005年，我的预计是：
对欧元：可能在1.35-1.40的区间震荡；
对日元：可能在95-105的区间震荡；
对人民币：可能贬值3-5%
瞎说，不构成任何投资建议。
家园 这么说来，又是个盘局，有什么好耍的没有啊？ 家园 法国人（新财长）最近抗议 得很厉害，ECB可是法国人特里谢掌权的。日本也担心经济复苏又成为昨日黄花。人民币显然可持续性升值的可能性也不大。
盘局的可能性大，看空（双赤字、减税永久化、社保基金私有化）和看多（经济基本面、有序的加息、外国央行的干预）的人都可以找着发力点。
陶陶新年好！
家园 首长新年好， 还有，抱得美人归哦。哈哈哈哈哈哈。
今年圣诞没远游，就到几百里的湖边呆了一下，好象本地游客比去年少了很多很多；没搞明白是他们往远处走了，还是没出来；呵呵，玄乎。
说回财政赤字吧，共和党从非常保守到了财赤不可怕，现在亚洲还是给美国买单了。但谁都怕有一天，他们不买了，比如说他们内需增长了，欧洲的市场也起来了；希望那时候美国已经调整过来了吧。哪一方更快一些，首长怎么看？
家园 【注脚】什么时候外国央行会调低美元资产？ Long-Term Rates Pivotal for World Economy in 2005
A Reuters poll of market experts held one year ago expected 10-year rates to be 5.10 percent by now. But at 4.20 percent on Wednesday they were almost a point lower than that.
More puzzling is that long rates will end the year down despite the Federal Reserve's five quarter-percentage-point rate rises since June to bring official rates to 2.25 percent.
Last year's forecast was for Fed rates to be half a point lower than that by now.
Rates also remain low in the face of a rising national debt and the possibility that President Bush may issue trillions of dollars in bonds to fund transition costs associated with partial privatisation of social security.
From an asset-allocation perspective, equity seemed more attractive. World stocks rose 15 percent this year.
Yet, 10-year rates are still 2.5 percentage points below levels of early 2000 and almost half peaks of 10 years ago.
Several reasons are offered. These include Fed credibility and subdued inflation expectations; modest job creation and brisk productivity growth; simmering geopolitical risks fueling demand for "safe" assets; and an oil price shock that was seen as a tax on growth rather than aggravating inflation.
But the sheer dominance of about half a dozen foreign central banks, mainly Japan and China, in buying U.S. bonds as a way of banking dollars accumulated in currency intervention makes them the most suspicious culprits.
They bought up to $300 billion of bonds alone this year -- funding about two thirds of the entire annual U.S. budget deficit in the process -- as they staged a fierce fight to prevent a dollar decline sapping export-dependent economies.
Some experts say this additional demand for Treasuries -- which is regardless of market value or economic outlook -- has depressed long-term yields by up to two percentage points.
And they reckon it is only a matter of time before foreign central banks, worried about overly-concentrated holdings of U.S. debt, lower their purchases of dollars and Treasuries.
"The question in my mind is not whether this is going to reverse at some point, but only whether it will unravel in 2005 or 2006," said Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at New York University's Stern Business School.
A U.S. current account deficit in excess of 5 percent of national income, meantime, is piling pressure on the dollar.
As the dollar falls and central banks, including Japan and South Korea, temper their battle to buoy the greenback, bond demand may wane and a spike in long rates is a real risk.
"A saving-short, asset-dependent U.S. economy needs higher real interest rates to temper excess consumption," Morgan Stanley's head global economist Stephen Roach wrote last week.
"To the extent that a further decline in the dollar sparks such an adjustment, the U.S. will have taken an important step on the road to global rebalancing."
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
