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主题:04/09/2009 Market View -- 宁子

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  • 家园 04/09/2009 Market View

    SUMMARY:

    - Wells Fargo pre-announcement ignites a strong continuation of the rally's second leg.

    - WMT lackluster March sales seen as disappointing but it could herald the start of consumer recovery.

    - Earnings season thus far rewarding as earnings top expectations. Investors now expecting too much?

    Thursday was more than just a bounce, at least for part of the market.

    Wednesday night we said the move up was not as strong a rebound as you want to see, but we could live with it given the leadership. Thursday was strong enough, at least on the NYSE indices given the financial stocks' rampage. The reason for the rampage was Wells Fargo pre-announced $0.53 versus $0.23. Futures were up before that news, but that is what upped the horsepower tenfold.

    That was enough to overcome sloppy same store sales that saw WMT March sales +1.4%, quite off from the 3.2% expected. Overall retail sales were slimmer at -1.8% versus the -0.9% expected and the +0.3% in February. With weekly jobless claims still high (654K versus 660K and 674K prior) and continuing claims hitting an all-time high at 5.8M, a bit of consumer upset is expected. On the other hand, Japan put forth a larger than expected stimulus package and reported an increase in machinery orders. On balance the negatives were nowhere near enough to stand in front of the financials and their lead engine on the day, WFC.

    Stocks gapped higher and never came back. After that initial gap and run in the first half hour stocks and the indices moved laterally for 5 hours, basically the rest of the session before a late drift higher and bump upside into the close. The indices cleared the early April peak and made some significant moves with NASDAQ 100 making a new breakout, SOX pushing the November high, the previous high since the bear market started, into the dirt, and NASDAQ moving over the January closing high.

    Despite the great set ups after the pullback, the gap did not give us a chance to enter many positions. That happens. Fortunately we had taken some new positions as the opportunity presented during the past week. Moreover, an upside session ahead of a holiday typically leads to some downside early the following week and that can produce some buys. Thing is, the market is strengthening as the second upside leg breaks to a new high given the better than expected earnings and earnings pre-announcements. Thus maybe we get an entry point early next week or maybe those that gapped Thursday require a week or two to consolidate the gap and set up the next move as we cull through earnings season. There will be others stepping up in the interim and as always we just have to be patient and not chase the bus. We have some great positions we are riding higher, e.g. AMZN, BRCM, MRVL, QCOM, TSM, and we will let them move along with the newer positions we picked up the past week as well as on Thursday. You have to like how the market is rotating new leadership into the fold as the early leaders rest and set up for their next move as well. Thus you see the waves of good movers and while Thursday was hard to get in on given the gaps, the market is giving series after series of entry points. That is another sign of a healthy market.

    TECHNICAL. Intraday was positive again with the gap higher, the long flat intraday consolidation, then the rise into the close. The market shot higher and held its gains without any serious test. Given the type of news that drove stocks higher it is not surprising the shorts didn't want any part of the action.

    INTERNALS. Very strong breadth as you would expect with 6:1 on NYSE and 5:1 on NASDAQ. All sectors were strong as financials led the move but other sectors found reason to rally: if the financials are doing well that is good for the economy and hence the market. Volume surged back above average on NYSE though NASDAQ could not turn above average volume though trade was the best of the week. The shorts had to cover desperately once more as the market did not turn over at next resistance. There was also long buying however as you saw leaders make strong moves; most leaders have no sizeable short positions in their stocks and thus their moves are typically long buying. The drawback is volume was NOT spread out over the entire market. Most of it was concentrated in the financials as shorts are still present and they were again forced to cover.

    CHARTS. There were some very key moves. SOX, the clear leader in the rally, put in a new bear market recovery high. SP600 broke out of a reverse head and shoulders pattern though it rallied right up to next resistance. NASDAQ closed over the January closing high, starting the breakout from what is more or less a 5 month Double bottom w/handle base. NASDAQ 100 made a clean break out of its 6 month base. SP500 broke from its own reverse head and shoulders pattern on that stronger, above average volume. These are all bullish indications as noted above, and they show strengthening as the upside move continues. The indices are currently on the second leg of the rally off the March low, renewing the move after the 1-2-2.5 pullback (as opposed to a 1-2-3) last week.

    Some are saying that the market has to go back and test the prior lows before a sustained, long-term upside move. First, the market never has to do anything and those that expect certain things are typically disappointed. Figuring market moves is all about probabilities based upon patterns, volumes, leadership, etc. We have discussed the need for another test before. In the last bear market only one index did not undercut its prior low; all the others did and that did not require a test. This time around SOX held above the lows, never testing November. The other indices did make tests: NASDAQ 100 formed a nice double bottom as has NASDAQ. SP500 undercut its November low but again, it is not necessary that every index return to the point of origin in the selloff.

    That does not mean it is all clear sailing from here. SP500 is still in a range of thick resistance from 900 to 945 and it just crossed the October lows that represent important resistance as well. SP500 will continue to work hard to get through this level, though the Friday breakout from the reverse head and shoulders gives it some upside momentum near term toward 900. From there it likely tests and extends laterally as it bumps resistance and tries to consolidate for a new breakout.

    LEADERSHP: Financial leaders were of course surging along with most other financials, leader or not. Leaders in semis, tech, commodities (coming back nicely), and retail (more or less) were all moving. There were breaks higher by industrials such as DE and CMI, but their gaps were big and they never came back, and we did not want to chase the bus. Volume outside the financials, even in commodities that jumped higher, was weak. Hence the lower NASDAQ volume even as NYSE with its large financials contingent saw jumping trade. Not bad action; it is always good when leaders lead and new leaders continue to emerge. Friday saw both, and we enjoyed other investors pushing our positions taken earlier further to the upside.

    • 家园 THE ECONOMY

      WMT March sales miss expectations. Good or bad?

      Wednesday we discussed whether tumbling wholesale inventories was a good or bad indication for the economy. At this juncture, low inventories are good as that will require a rebuild and that means future production. It doesn't say much for the current situation, but it is a positive when demand rises.

      Thursday there were gloomy faces with regard to the retail sector as same store sales fell 1.8% versus the 0.9% anticipated and the 0.3% gain in February. The big cherry on top (or the black rose if you want) was WMT's miss of expectations. Sales were up, but the 1.4% fell far short of the 3.2% expected.

      Woe is retail, woe is retail. The giant reported worse sales and thus all must be lost. Okay there was not that level of wrist-slashing despair, but the headlines on all the financial stations, just under the Wells Fargo news, was the WMT miss and what it meant for the state of the consumer. On top of that there was the February trade gap that hit a record low (-$26.0B) as consumers shun imported goods. Of course that was February data and same store sales rose 0.3% that month so the correlation is somewhat weak; still, when the US is in recession that is the only time consumers don't consume a lot of foreign goods.

      But is a WMT miss automatically a bad thing for the economy? No. WMT is huge and it has an indelible footprint on US retail sales. Nonetheless, it is still a recession stock as its sales rise in recessions along with its stock price. After a run to a peak in September 2008 WMT peaked. The market peaked as well so it is not necessarily an indication of a change specific to WMT. What does show something WMT specific is the tumble this month after WMT recovered to the 200 day SMA only to roll over and drop 10% this month as the rest of the market rallies.

      WMT does worse when the economy improves because consumers no longer feel compelled to pinch as many pennies and spread out to boutiques, specialty stores, and the high end stores as well. Note that WMT started its run higher ahead of the economic downturn, outperforming nearly all retailers as investors anticipated its rising sales due to a declining economy. When investors anticipate an economic recovery, they will start unloading WMT. The rise and fall occurred in the 2000 to 2002.

      Is it starting right now? WMT is not participating in the new run higher and sales have slowed. It is hard to extrapolate March alone into a decline slope for WMT sales. One month alone can be an outrider and other stores failed to show great sales either. In any event the stock price will fall ahead of a sales drop and thus we are looking at the failure to participate in this rally as a significant development. It is not definitive in itself, but with the other indications of economic improvement the past few months WMT's action is something to log with the other data. And to answer the above question, a decline in WMT's stock price is not a bad thing for retail overall and indeed generally is a positive portent for other retailers that see their business improve as consumers feel positive about a recovery and start spreading their disposable dollars around versus buying WMT's functional but painfully bland product lineup.

      • 家园 THE MARKET

        MARKET SENTIMENT

        VIX: 36.53; -2.32

        VXN: 38.23; -2.27

        VXO: 37.41; -1.86

        Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.81; -0.04

        Bulls versus Bears:

        This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.

        This is a historical milestone in the making. Bulls are impressively low considering we are in general a very optimistic country. The few bulls is a positive indication because it means most everyone that is getting out is out and there is money on the sidelines. In other words the ammunition boxes are full and as the market recovers investors will start opening up the boxes and firing. Little by little they will be forced to put more money into the market and there will be some rushes higher in fear they are missing the train. You relish times when sentiment is so negative because it means some tremendous buys are setting up. This could indeed be the opportunity of a lifetime, and you take advantage of it by buying quality stocks and letting them work for you as long as they will. If we can hold them for years, great.

        Bulls: 36.0%. Sharp jump in the bulls, moving back above 35%. Below 35% is a bullish indication. Above is not so bullish but is not bearish until higher levels. 31.0% the prior week up from 28.9%. Still well below the 43.0%, the prior top of the recovery as the market rallied off the November low. Bullishness bottomed on this leg lower at 21.3% in November 2008. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator. This is smashing that. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006, the last major round of selling ahead of this 2007 top, near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.

        Bears: 37.1%. Fewer bulls but not a commensurate fall compared to bulls and their rise (38.0% last week). Big drop from 43.3% and 44.3% before that. The decline was slowing its fall from 47.2%, the peak for the run this year but no more. Hit the 34's on the lows, falling from 38.5% and 46.2% in mid-December. Still above the 35% level considered bullish for stocks. Bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment on this move. 35% is the level that historically indicates excessive pessimism. As with the bulls the jump in bears did its job after hitting 44.7% in the third week of March. Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). This is a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.

        NASDAQ

        Stats: +61.88 points (+3.89%) to close at 1652.54

        Volume: 2.099B (+16.85%)

        Up Volume: 1.98B (+494.461M)

        Down Volume: 191.13M (-166.801M)

        A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.8 to 1

        Previous Session: Advancers led 2.58 to 1

        New Highs: 25 (+19)

        New Lows: 7 (-3)

        NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

        NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

        SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg

        SP500/NYSE

        Stats: +31.4 points (+3.81%) to close at 856.56

        NYSE Volume: 1.836B (+39.54%)

        Up Volume: 1.713B (+757.883M)

        Down Volume: 115.554M (-230.456M)

        A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 5.94 to 1

        Previous Session: Advancers led 2.73 to 1

        New Highs: 14 (+10)

        New Lows: 64 (+16)

        SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

        DJ30

        The Dow bounced off the 10 day EMA support and moved through 8000. That takes it into the lower ranges of the January/February consolidation but that only puts DJ30 right in the middle of resistance up to 8375. It made a new closing high on this move off the March low so there are positives; it is just that DJ30 has been less than inspiring, letting the other indices do the work.

        Stats: +246.27 points (+3.14%) to close at 8083.38

        Volume: 462M shares Thursday versus 255M shares Wednesday. The financial issues on the Dow were jumping on strong volume.

        DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg

        • 家园 MONDAY

          The market finished the shortened week with strength, moving higher on rising volume. Often when the market closes strong ahead of a holiday it is down to start the next week. With the gaps higher Thursday that makes some sense; so many stocks gapped higher and not all were worthy but were just caught in the whoosh higher. Thus we could very easily see some backfilling to start next week despite the strong move to continue the second leg higher off the March low shown on Thursday. That could give us some good entry points on some of those great stocks that jumped higher Thursday such as CMI, SCHN, DE, MR, and quite a few others. Patience; let them come to us. As noted above it could be a day or two or it could be a week or two before they are ready depending upon what the overall market does with the move.

          As for what Thursday and the WFC pre-announcement means we need to get past the initial euphoria the shock of 2x expectations placed in investors' minds. The WFC earnings on top of RIMM's earnings have investors starting to consider that things are not as bad as everyone thought. Some are even saying that we could get a positive GDP reading in Q2.

          Maybe we will, but we need to put things in perspective. The WFC earnings were very nice to see as they showed mortgages are recovering and that basically banks can make money in this environment. But what is the environment? The Fed has reduced the cost of lendable funds to banks to virtually zero, and banks can turn around and loan the money from 2% on up to 5% and more. With many individuals and companies starved for credit to operate, banks such as WFC are making money hand over fist with this incredible gift from the Fed. Let's face it, a trained monkey could make money in this circumstance. Maybe not even trained monkeys.

          Does that translate to other sectors of the economy? No. They don't have the no cost funds to operate with. Indeed, when you are dealing with banks right now there is massive unfairness and indeed a lack of equal protection under the Constitution. The Congress has set up zones of the country where loans are not equal. If you live in Florida, parts of New York or California, a jumbo loan is not limited to $417K to be conforming as it is in all the rest of the country. This involves mostly individuals, but the point is the same: the banks are getting a sweetheart deal, some people by virtue of where they live are getting a sweetheart deal, but none of the rest of us are.

          Thus the euphoria spawned by the RIMM/WFC earnings could be setting up disappointment as more earnings come out if the majority view these two reports (and we will throw in BBBY because it too had good earnings) as definitive of the earnings season. Harsh reality could quickly turn the excitement to some consternation.

          Hopefully earnings will continue to surprise. That will continue to help the market . . . to a point. At some point, even in good earnings seasons, the market hits its good news saturation level. Despite continuing good tidings there comes a point where each additional positive story has a lower marginal impact until they have no impact. The market cannot ride news higher indefinitely, and when that point is hit then there is a correction. If earnings continue to turn up better the market will rally on this second leg until the saturation point and then it will sputter along with the second leg.

          That is of course not the case right now. The earnings are new, fresh, and better than expected. The stock move is strengthening as of Friday. That means we will continue looking for opportunity to invest in this second upside leg and that means some testing by stocks that gapped higher Thursday or were already moving well ahead of the news. It also means we look for newly emerging stocks as well because as we know, stocks in rallies come out in waves. The early leaders take off, run higher, then test. As they were making their moves others were setting up bases and then make their break higher as money moves from the early leaders to the newly emerging. It flows around the market, eventually getting back to the early leaders after they test and come back to near support and we see them rally off that test once more. Have said it before: rotation is not just good for tires.

          So we enter this week with a strengthening second upside leg and that means we continue looking for entry points on solid stocks whether it is an early week pullback to test the gaps higher or new stocks emerging from bases. At the same time there is the earnings overlay. Thus far so good but we are not counting on that holding up. And as noted, even if it does, at some point the news is no longer news. The beauty of that is we get a nice run for our positions, take some nice gain, and then are more than ready to see the market test back.

          Support and Resistance

          NASDAQ: Closed at 1652.54

          Resistance:

          The January closing peak at 1653

          1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

          1780 is the November 2008 peak

          1947 is the October gap down point

          Support:

          1644 from August 2003

          1623 is the April peak

          1620 from the early 2001 low

          1603 is the December peak

          1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

          1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again

          The 10 day EMA at 1581

          1569 is the late January 2009 peak

          1542 is the early October 2008 low

          1536 is the late November 2008 peak

          1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

          The 50 day EMA at 1508

          1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

          1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

          The 50 day SMA at 1478

          1440 is the January 2009 closing low

          S&P 500: Closed at 856.56

          Resistance:

          857 is the December consolidation low

          866 is the second October 2008 low

          878 is the late January 2009 peak

          889 is an interim 2002 peak

          896 is the late November 2008 peak

          899 is the early October closing low

          919 is the early December peak

          944 is the January 2009 high

          Support:

          853 is the July 2002 low

          848 is the October 2008 closing low

          846 is the April peak

          839 is the early October 2008 low

          833 is the March 2009 peak

          The 90 day SMA at 827

          The 10 day EMA at 825

          818 is the early November 2008 low

          815 is the early December 2008 low

          805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

          The 50 day EMA at 805

          800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

          768 is the 2002 bear market low

          752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

          741 is the November 2008 intraday low

          Dow: Closed at 8083.38

          Resistance:

          8141 is the early December low

          8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

          8197 was the second October 2008 low

          8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

          8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

          8451 is the early October closing low

          8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

          8626 from December 2002

          8829 is the late November 2008 peak

          8934 is the December closing high

          8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

          9088 is the January 2009 peak

          Support:

          The April peak at 8076

          The 90 day SMA at 7975

          7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

          7932 is the March 2009 peak

          7909 is the early January low

          7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

          7867 is the early February low

          The 10 day EMA at 7846

          The 50 day EMA at 7703

          7702 is the July 2002 low

          7694 is the February intraday low

          7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

          • MONDAY
            家园 THE PLAYS:

            Upside:

            Play Date: 04/10/2009

            ATMI (ATMI, Inc.--$18.44; +1.91; optionable): Chip equipment

            http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atmi.html

            After Hours: $18.44

            EARNINGS: 04/22/2009

            STATUS: Flag breakout. ATMI broke out from a 3 month double bottom to start April then made a quick test last week to the highs in the base. It held, forming a flag test of the breakout move. Thursday ATMI jumped higher and continued the breakout, clearing the breakout closing high. Looking to move into ATMI this coming week. It may come back some early in the week to test the move a bit and if it does we will pick it up after the test that could happen intraday.

            Volume: 305.916K Avg Volume: 333.765K

            BUY POINT: $18.58 Volume=501K Target=$21.95 Stop=$17.28

            POSITION: ASQ FW - June $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock

            http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/atmi.html

            Play Date: 04/10/2009

            BUCY (Bucyrus International--$18.58; +1.81; optionable): Cranes, draglines

            http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html

            After Hours: $18.56

            EARNINGS: 04/23/2009

            STATUS: Cup w/handle. BUCY has spent all 2009 forming a 13 week base. Nice handle this past week with a low volume fade to near support and then a breakout move Thursday on rising, above average volume. This is BUCY's first base coming off the bottom and the industrials are finally starting to make their move to join the rest of the market. Nice break higher Thursday as BUCY made a higher high on this run off the March low. Been awhile.

            Volume: 3.467M Avg Volume: 2.86M

            BUY POINT: $18.72 Volume=3.8M Target=$22.95 Stop=$17.41

            POSITION: HBU GA - July $17.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock

            http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bucy.html

            Play Date: 04/10/2009

            CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$20.70; +1.21; optionable): Natural gas exploration, production

            http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html

            After Hours: $20.55

            EARNINGS: 02/17/2009

            STATUS: Trading range breakout. CHK bounced up and down in its 4 month trading range from 14 to 20 and then gapped out of the pattern Thursday. This move is a bit different from the prior up and down cycles in the trading range: on the last dip off the high it held midrange at the 50 day EMA (17.55) and rebounded immediately to the top of the range, tested, and broke higher. It could still fall back in but after this many cycles (4) the range tends to break down and with the market breaking higher it is logical for CHK to break higher as well. Thus looking to move in this week. It could test back to 20 first and if it does we will pick it up off that test. If not we can pick up positions from a continued move higher.

            Volume: 17.319M Avg Volume: 17.257M

            BUY POINT: $21.11 Volume=22M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.63

            POSITION: CHK GD - July $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock

            http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chk.html

            Play Date: 04/10/2009

            PBR (Petroleo Brasileiro--$35.99; +1.98; optionable): Brazilian oil and gas

            http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pbr.html

            After Hours: $36.08

            EARNINGS: 05/08/2009

            STATUS: PBR is breaking over the 200 day SMA (35.45) after forming a short 3 week reverse head and shoulders pattern to consolidate the mid-March breakout from a cup with handle base. After nice low consolidation volume from the last week of April, trade surged Thursday as PBR broke through the 200 day. Strong action and looking to move in as PBR continues this move or on a possible early week test of the 200 day.

            Volume: 31.547M Avg Volume: 27.263M

            BUY POINT: $36.21 Volume=30M Target=$43.95 Stop=$33.88

            POSITION: PBR GG - July $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock

            http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pbr.html

            Play Date: 04/10/2009

            SLAB (Silicon Labs--$28.53; +1.37; optionable): Semiconductors

            http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html

            After Hours: $28.53

            EARNINGS: 02/04/2009

            STATUS: Flying plateau. SLAB broke out from a 10 week Double bottom w/handle base in mid-March and then consolidated for three weeks with the current 26 to 28 trading range. Thursday it broke higher out of that range on rising, average trade. SLAB was a chip stock we played a lot back in the late 1990's and into 2000 and it looks to be ready to make a nice run for us here.

            Volume: 934.191K Avg Volume: 909.697K

            BUY POINT: $28.76 Volume=1.2M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.75

            POSITION: QFJ GE - July $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock

            http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slab.html

            Play Date: 04/10/2009

            V (Visa, Inc.--$58.79; +0.97; optionable): Credit card services

            http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/v.html

            After Hours: $58.64

            EARNINGS: 04/29/2009

            STATUS: Flag. V broke out form a 6 month consolidation just over a week back and ran right into the 200 day SMA (59.57) on the high. It tested this week, coming back to the 10 day EMA (57) on the low. As is often the case that sent V higher. It gapped upside Thursday on stronger, above average volume, hitting the 200 day on the high once more. Looking for a break through the 200 day to give us a buy off of this nice consolidation off the breakout move.

            Volume: 11.448M Avg Volume: 9.846M

            BUY POINT: $59.65 Volume=12M Target=$68.95 Stop=$56.89

            POSITION: V FY - June $57.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock

            http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/v.html

            Continuing Play Looking Ready:

            Play Date: 04/04/2009

            FDS (Factset Research--$48.22; +1.63; optionable): Computer software services

            http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html

            After Hours: $48.22

            EARNINGS: 03/17/2009

            STATUS: Flag. FDS broke out from a 10 week base in mid-March and rallied up through the 200 day SMA (46.91). It has tested the past two weeks, falling through the 200 day this week but holding at the 18 day EMA (46.02). Thursday FDS gapped higher and back over the 200 day on rising, average trade. Good recovery and in excellent position now to resume the breakout. Ready to move in as FDS continues higher.

            Volume: 856.22K Avg Volume: 848.735K

            BUY POINT: $48.77 Volume=1.3M Target=$55.94 Stop=$46.78

            POSITION: FDS FI - June $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock

            http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fds.html

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