主题：03/02/2009 Market View -- 宁子
家园 03/02/2009 Market View SUMMARY:
- It was Monday, so the market had to be down.
- Incomes are up . . . due to government pay raises.
- ISM posts second consecutive move upside, but a long way to go.
- Now investors watch if NASDAQ can hold and at least provide a bounce. A sharp downside open would help.
Another lower start to another week.
It didn't matter that the economic data was a bit better both before the open (personal spending and income) and a half hour into the session (ISM manufacturing). AIG was requiring more federal bailout money or else (and its tentacles stretch all over the world's financial markets). That soured the mood as investors wondered how much more funny money would require printing to get out of this. Once more a week started with fears stoked with the prospect of a global economic crash. I suppose they are worried about even more of a global economic crash than already exists. It could get worse, though you hate to dwell on that too much. LIBOR was still ticking higher on the key 3-month end and that hurts even though the overnight rate came back into line a bit at 0.31% after spiking to 0.36% Friday. The dollar surged again (1.2576 euros) as investors fear being in other currencies even with the US printing money 24/7. Bond yields tanked with the 10 year falling to 2.87% after closing Friday at 3.02%. Investors are not walking but running toward US Treasuries - - again. Oil tanked $4.72/bbl, down to 40.04. It is trying to climb and it is still holding some gains, but it was hammered Monday.
The problem confronting the world's economies is that the banking and financial issues are not resolved. Countries are trying to stimulate their economies as if their actions directed at the financial markets have succeeded in repairing the financial structures and institutions. They have not. No doubt there was improvement up to a month back, but that has stalled and started to backtrack before it got to the point where credit returned to relative free flow. You have to be able to access money. That has not been restored. Thus Europe is falling or has fallen off a cliff and is in, if you can imagine, worse shape than the US. Money flow and credit markets have to be restored for any recovery attempt to work. Only China has enough money in reserve not to need free flowing credit markets right now. Its economy is, from what we hear, perking up thanks to its stimulus efforts and its money reserves where it can guarantee funds. China is big, but it cannot carry the rest of the world with it.
TECHNICAL. Intraday action was plenty bearish with a down open, a modest bounce that came nowhere near positive, and then a rollover that closed at session lows and new lows for DJ30, SP500, and SP600.
INTERNALS. Depending upon your source on the session, the internals were bad or they were really bad. Actually, that is more limited to breadth and that shows extreme numbers (-11:1 NYSE or -22:1 by some reports; you find that when there are extreme beatings in the market that seemingly simply data to calculate varies widely; -7.6:1 NASDAQ). Extremes suggest turns but they are not necessarily time sensitive. They turn extreme and that is basically raising a flat go watch for other signals of a change. Hard to see any change in character in the market on this particular day. Volume was lower on both NASDAQ and NYSE though both remained above average, NYSE well above average. New lows were up but they are still below the November levels on both NYSE (800ish) and NASDAQ (500ish) even though SP500 and SP600 have crashed well below those November lows. Bigger picture that is a positive and something to keep in the picture, but as with breadth it is not a timing device.
CHARTS. NYSE indices were pretty much straight dives to the bottom of the pool as SP600 broke its November lows, joining SP500 and the downside leader DJ30 as they swim to lower and lower lows. NASDAQ made the quick drop to its November closing low and that is the key test for the market's immediate future. It is the last major index (although NASDAQ 100 and SOX are of interest and still well above their November lows) to test this level. Thus far the financials have been the albatross around the market's neck and it will be interesting of NASDAQ can fend off their downside magnetism and bounce. Thus far that is not the case as NASDAQ has followed the NYSE lower. After three sharp days lower, however, perhaps NASDAQ can spring a relief bounce or at least a bounce to set up another downside leg. With the blanket weakness it is hard to see any significant bounce here but that is often exactly when they show up.
LEADERSHIP. Even China was down on Monday. There was some strength in a few consumer retail stocks (e.g. TJX, AMZN) though strength is measured in not tanking below support versus making breakouts. Leadership is quite thin. There are holdouts, but out and out leaders are running as scared as a 10 point buck on opening day.
家园 THE ECONOMY Incomes rise but not in a meaningful way.
At 0.4% compared to the -0.2% expected and the -0.2% logged in December, how could this gain be meaningless. Not meaningless, just not very meaningful. While the gain was a positive, the reason for the gain was not private sector driven. Once more, as it seems the case every day now, the government's hand is heavy on the numbers. It is not bad or faulty data, is it government wage increases that drove the income rise. Military pay and the like were seasonally increased and the provided the gains. If you segregate the private sector income levels you see those fell $25B.
You can argue incomes are incomes and overall they rose 0.4% for the month. For the month that is not bad. Next month, however, they will tank once more. While government is involved in the largest ongoing expansion and power grab in the history of the nation, it is still a relatively small part of the overall workforce. Thus an increase in some federal payrolls is not going to do much long term for the economy. More than that, you can argue it hurts the economy longer term. Those wages come from taxes paid by the rest of us and we don't get anywhere near a dollar for dollar return for our taxes paid. At a time when the economy needs money for capital investment, taking more in the form of taxes is not good news or good policy.
There are some positives. When you adjust for inflation and taxes, incomes are up for 5 consecutive months. Doesn't seem likely given the massive job losses. It is not a reflection of demand for workers. The rise is a reflection of the continuing decline in energy and gasoline prices. As they fall disposable income rises. That is a continuing boon for the consumer, but it is the same one in place for 5 months now, and that has done nothing to stem the slide in durable goods orders and consumer spending.
Why not? Because the savings rate is now at 5% as consumers take the extra money they are not putting in their gas tanks and they are leaving it in the wallet, purse, bank, sack buried in the back yard, etc. No one is spending because things are so bad no one wants to let go of any money that is coming in.
Well maybe not all of it. Spending did rose 0.6% in January after a weak -1.0% in December. Heavy discounting following the holidays is attributed for the gains. Have you noticed the sales offered by many of the higher end retailers? Some of these you never see other than token discounts of 10% or 15%, and that on last season's merchandise that did not move. Now you are seeing hefty discounts as their typically recession proof customers have put up the wallet or purse. A dramatic decline. If you have some cash there are bargains to be had.
February ISM Index follows Chicago and ticks higher.
The New York and Philly PMI reports sent the nascent gains in the manufacturing indices the prior two months into the trash can. Then last week Chicago showed gains, or more accurately slower losses, for the second month. Monday the ISM, the national amalgam of the regions, hung up a 35.8 reading, topping lowered expectations after those weaker NY and Philly numbers (33.8), and showing its second month of improvement as well, topping January's 35.6 reading. October was 38.7, November 36.6, and December, the low water mark, was 32.9.
That puts some key regions showing continuing improvement even with the hiatus last month from NY and Philly. These are crumbs when you look at the staggering numbers in other sectors of the economy, but these manufacturing reports tend to be one of the leading economic indicators for the overall economy. They started showing improvement in 2002 when nothing else economic was improving. They gained as the market started to gain late that year. Thus you do not want to overlook gains, particularly gains that start showing up consecutively, AND return to improvement even after straying for a month. Slim pickings? You bet. Nonetheless, if the indices can hold up with NASDAQ testing its November lows it is something to keep in mind if the market starts showing unexpected strength.
家园 THE MARKET MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 52.65; +6.3. Gapped and rallied to close at the late February peak. Making a series of higher lows and a breakout over 54 will start to signal a crescendo and you can look for a turn. The highs at over 80 were put in back in October and November. VIX hits its highs several months before it runs again and makes a lower high. That typically marks an attempt at turning. Doesn't seem likely but store it away.
VXN: 50.92; +5.64
VXO: 54.51; +5.43
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.07; +0.09
NASDAQ
Stats: -54.99 points (-3.99%) to close at 1322.85
Volume: 2.342B (-6.97%)
Up Volume: 81.167M (-826.535M). Really, really extreme.
Down Volume: 2.25B (+758.503M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 7.6 to 1. Extreme.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.61 to 1
New Highs: 3 (-1)
New Lows: 588 (+252). Up but less than November.
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ gapped lower and sold to close just over the November closing low (1316). It is now at the full test of the November closing low, the last major to do so. There is still the intraday low down there as well (1295). This comes after three downside sessions and three weeks of selling broken up by a short lateral move of sorts last week. Yes it is oversold and it is at key support. SP500 tried to bounce off of that level but it was a one-day bounce and it worked laterally as it struggled to find its footing and failed. We will see what kind of fortitude NASDAQ has versus SP500 and if it can gin up a stronger bounce back up toward the December low and lat least (1398) and set up some better downside.
SOX (-5.09%) broke the January low again and closed just below last week's low. It is not breaking down as hard as the other indices so we just have to see how far the chips are down. Global sales in January fell 29% from December. What is new, right?
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -34.27 points (-4.66%) to close at 700.82
NYSE Volume: 1.979B (-7.67%). Lower but still big volume as the NYSE indices dove lower.
Up Volume: 38.101M (-464.725M)
Down Volume: 1.915B (+179.456M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 22.88 to 1 Whether -22:1 or -11:1 it is extreme. Opted to put the worst on the report for kicks.
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.24 to 1
New Highs: 9 (+5)
New Lows: 823 (+531). A big spike but still much lower than in November. Again, not a great timing mechanism but it tells you to keep a heads up.
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP500 gapped lower and then closed at the session low. Striaght down since breaking the November low and no real support. It closed at 700 and some say that is support. 673 looks to be more of a downside target for support than 700, but if NASDAQ holds its low and bounces SP500 will bounce as well.
SP600 (-5.29%) gapped and sold off as well, taking out its November intraday low. The small caps are showing no signs of any economic recovery because there is no fix in the financial markets, and as noted, without the latter there won't be any economic recovery, or more germane to us, the anticipation of recovery that turns the market.
DJ30
After a week trying to hold just over 7000 DJ30 imploded, again on high volume. 6500 is the next real support for the Dow, another 260 or so points lower.
Stats: -299.64 points (-4.24%) to close at 6763.29
Volume: 568M shares Monday versus 667M Friday. Huge volume both sessions.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
家园 TUESDAY Pending home sales is the only scheduled report for Tuesday. The big event of the day is how NASDAQ reacts to its November closing low and the intraday low as well. Indeed, if the market opens lower and NASDAQ hits near that prior low we will be watching for an oversold rally. Indeed, a nasty open could push DJ30 down near that 6500 level as well, and both of those would combine to trigger an oversold move. Moreover, consider how far below the short term moving averages the indices are. SP500 is 63 points below the 10 day EMA. At the height of the November plunge it was 100 points below that level. Another sharply lower open and the rubber band is stretched pretty tight. And of course, Tuesday is historically always a very good day for the market to put in a bottom whether short term or longer term.
That means we would use a big break lower Tuesday to close the downside and then look for a bounce to either set up more downside or provide us with upside moves for stocks such as AMZN, STAR, TJX, BEAT, VLTR and some index and/or ETF plays such as QQQQ or QLD (ultra QQQQ), SPY or SSO (ultra SP500). Still in a downtrend and we would be playing a bounce inside of it, and that means being nimble and riding back up to resistance, taking some gain, and then seeing if it continues up through or simply sets up another downside run. The market is quite oversold and will bounce again, but until it shows a break through resistance and a successful test of that break, the upside remains treacherous outside of short term plays.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1322.85
Resistance:
1387 is the 2001 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
The 10 day EMA at 1414
1428 is the mid-November 2008 low
1434 is the January low (1440.86 closing)
1460 is the February low
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low.
The 50 day EMA at 1508
The 50 day SMA at 1515
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
The 90 day SMA at 1532
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1565 is the second low in October 2008
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1603 is the December peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1644 from August 2003
1666 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
1316 is the November 2008 closing low
1295 is the November 2008 low
S&P 500: Closed at 700.82
Resistance:
722 is a December 1996 low
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
752 is the November 2008 closing low
The 10 day EMA at 759
768 is the 2002 bear market low
The 18 day EMA at 783
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
804 is the low on the January 2009 selloff
812 is the February low
815 is the early December 2008 low
818 is the early November 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 833
839 is the early October 2008 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low
866 is the second October 2008 low
The 90 day SMA at 863
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
673 is a June 1996 peak
Dow: Closed at 6763.29
Resistance:
7008 from February 1997 closing peak
7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market
The 10 day EMA at 7266
7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.
7449 is the November 2008 low
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
7702 is the July 2002 low
7867 is the early February low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7909 is the early January low
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
The 50 day EMA at 8010
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
The 90 day SMA at 8366
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
6489 from December 1996 closing peak
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
March 2 - Monday
January Personal Income (8:30): +0.4% actual versus -0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
Personal Spending, January (8:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.4% expected, -1.0% prior
Core PCE, January (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Construction Spending, January (10:00): -3.3% actual versus -1.5% expected, -2.4% prior (revised from -1.4%)
ISM Index, February (10:00): 35.8 actual versus 33.8 expected, 35.6 prior
March 3 - Tuesday
January Pending Home Sales (10:00): -3.0% expected, 6.3% prior
March 4 - Wednesday
February ADP Employment Change (8:15): -613K expected, -522K prior
ISM Services, February (10:00): 41.3 expected, 42.0 prior
Crude Oil Inventories, 2/27 (10:30): 717K prior
March 5 - Thursday
Q4 Productivity-Rev. (8:30): 1.6% expected, 3.2% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q4 (8:30): 3.4% expected, 1.8% prior
Factor Orders, January (10:00): -2.1% expected, -3.9% prior
March 6 - Friday
February Average Workweek (8:30): 33.3 expected, 33.3 prior
Hourly Earnings, February (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
Nonfarm Payrolls, February (8:30): -615K expected, -598K prior
Unemployment Rate, February (8:30): 7.9% expected, 7.6% prior
Consumer Credit, January (14:00): -$4.0B expected, -6.6B prior
- 复 TUESDAY
家园 THE PLAYS Would like to see another blow down in the morning and then a reversal. Market is oversold so looking at some upside trades for a bounce, but we will simply have to see how the next test plays out as US stock futures had bounced after hours even as overseas markets were down 1% or so.
Upside:
Play Date: 03/02/2009
BBND (Bigband Networks--$5.73; +0.29; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbnd.html
After Hours: $5.63
STATUS: Cup w/handle. It has been rocky the past two months but BBND has put in a handle to its 10 month base. Volume was up two weeks back and then jumped to end last week with a good showing Friday and even better on Monday as BBND cleared the 50 day SMA (5.50). Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and relative strength is making a breakout. Looking to move in as BBND shows us the breakout move with strong volume.
Volume: 522.08K Avg Volume: 306.219K
BUY POINT: $5.84 Volume=459K Target=$7.24 Stop=$5.43
POSITION: QBE FA - June $5c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bbnd.html
Play Date: 03/02/2009
QLD (ProShares Ultra QQQ ETF--$21.10; -1.42; optionable)
After Hours: $21.34
STATUS: NASDAQ is testing its November closing low and that means QLD with its NASDAQ 100 track is close behind. We really would like to see a blow off to the downside early Tuesday though QLD was up after hours, and while foreign markets are lower, US futures are up. If we get the break lower we will see where it touches and where it rebounds; the closer toward the low the better (closing at 20.63, intraday at 19.27). Now if it starts the session higher that will splash cold water on the play; hard to trust any early move upside at this juncture.
Volume: 43.59M Avg Volume: 33.021M
BUY POINT: $20.11 after a test of the November intraday low. If it tests the closing low we move up the buy point as it bounces. Volume=44M Target=$23.68 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: QLA DT - Apr. $20c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qld.html
Play Date: 03/02/2009
SFLY (Shutterfly, Inc.--$7.84; -0.19; no options): Internet social site for photos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfly.html
After Hours: $7.81
STATUS: A new issue in late 2006 and then a long decline from October 2007 through January 2009. A nice lateral trading range from October to January and then the breakout in February on strong volume. It has tested the last two weeks, holding the 50 day EMA (7.52). Then volume jumped hard Friday as SFLY surged but could not hold the move (9.09 on the high). Monday it held steady on lower, below average volume in a weak market. Looking for another break higher to move in on.
Volume: 133.798K Avg Volume: 157.052K
BUY POINT: $8.18 Volume=250K Target=$9.95 Stop=$7.61
POSITION: - Stock (low OI option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sfly.html
Play Date: 03/02/2009
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$70.60; -3.33; optionable)
After Hours: $71.01
STATUS: Similar to the QLD play we would like to see SPY open down Tuesday in a continuation of the downside move and test toward the next support at 67.29. Doesn't have to make it there, just a good passable test. It is up after hours as US futures are up so we will just have to see how things look before the open and if SPY starts lower or tries some upside. If it tries the upside that does not mean the play is over: a quick pop and rollover could take it back to test that next support. If it does and NASDAQ tests and holds as well, then we are still on for the upside on a good bounce following the test.
Volume: 425.743M Avg Volume: 341.695M
BUY POINT: $69.35 Volume=400M Target=$74.91 Stop=$68.44
POSITION: SWV DQ - Apr. $69c (61 delta) or SWV DO - Apr. $67c (67 delta) if tests 67.29 next support
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spy.html