主题：1/4/2009 Market View -- 宁子
家园 1/4/2009 Market View SUMMARY:
- Lots of 'little' news, a modestly lower session to start the new trading year.
- Stimulus package changes its shape over a Hawaiian Christmas, but the added tax cuts are not the kind of tax cuts that stimulate a lot of growth.
- The next step: how the market responds to this first of the year test.
Stocks cannot build on Friday's first of year gains, but they do no damage.
There was a lot of news out Monday, but not a lot of it market moving, just a lot of Monday morning, first of year noise. AAPL faithful let out a collective 'whew!' after Steve Jobs issued a personal letter letting everyone know that his wraith-like look was a treatable hormonal problem versus the return of his cancer or some other life threatening disease. He can stay at the helm as he receives treatment. Apple gapped higher and posted a 4.22% gain, but one good apple could not ripen up the whole barrel of NASDAQ stocks. Came close, however.
Obama came back from a 'meli kalikimaka' Christmas with an idea to make 40% of his stimulus package tax cuts. That was an early positive, but the tax cuts are not the best kind to create real stimulus. Despite what some republicans think, not all tax cuts are created equal when it comes to creating real economic growth. The New York Fed announced it has started buying mortgage backed securities under its TALF plan. The common comment about that was 'about time.' Analysts were active to start the year with some downgrades (VZ, T), upgrades (AMZN, ALTR), and target cuts (C, JPM). There were more, but does it really matter right now when the market is talking to you? LIBOR was basically flat. The dollar rose sharply (1.3614 versus 1.3854 Friday, and down from over 1.4 last week). Oil was up again, however, despite the lower dollar (48.42, +2.08). Gold gapped lower but closed well off its low (859.70, -19.80).
Stocks started weaker but off their pre-market lows, then immediately fell lower. Then a move up through lunch and then into early afternoon that actually turned SP500 positive; twice. NASDAQ and DJ30 pulled up to the flat line. In the afternoon they could not hold, however and all but SOX (+0.62%) closed with rather modest losses. After the market advanced 5 out of 6 of the prior sessions, there was not a lot of upside interest on Monday overall, but there was a lot of interest in metals, energy, materials, and other commodities. That still suggests some overall positive views of the economy.
TECHNCAL. Intraday the market tried to move positive and in fact SP500 did make it to the green but could not hold the move, tailing off in the afternoon. The indices finished about where they started the session, however, so no really negatives taken from the afternoon fade.
INTERNALS. Volume was up on a downside session, and you can look at that as some distribution. On the other hand, volume was still light overall, coming in below average, and on NYSE it was at the Wednesday levels. No major surge as stocks showed some weakness. Moreover, up volume topped down volume on both NASDAQ and NYSE. Breadth was positive on both exchanges as well despite lower closes. The indices were dragged lower by some big names, but more stocks were up than down. This data shows some internal strength remains even though the first real trading day of 2009 closed lower.
CHARTS. The indices finished lower, but they all showed a nice tap toward the 50 day EMA on the low followed by a bounce back to near flat. Not a powerful rebound, but a good easy test of the break over the 50 day EMA last week. Considering it was the first of the year and there could have been sellers storming in after a week of low volume gains, this was not bad action at all, just a pretty orderly test of that prior upside move.
LEADERSHIP. Metals were strong again as well as energy of all types and materials. More of the infrastructure trade even with 40% tax cuts in the stimulus package here at home. China has its own stimulus package and the commodities suggest it will work to revive the dragon. Chips were flat to mixed. Techs were the same. Small caps struggled some, but the index bounced off its 50 day EMA as well. As with all of the indices, there was no real damage done, and to test the 50 day EMA and then hold basically flat was good to see.
SUMMARY. Once more, this was not bad action. After moving higher early stocks tested last week's break over the 50 day EMA and easily held. No breakdowns. Positive breadth. Up volume topped down volume. The first real day of trade for 2009 did not upset the rally to this point, and that in itself is a good start.
家园 石油突破50后回调，大盘也需要后回调。半仓SKF. 家园 谢谢分享，逐篇送花 家园 THE ECONOMY Obama courts republicans with tax cuts, but you need to stimulate investment and harder work.
The 40% or $300B in tax cuts sure was welcome news, but looking into what is offered at first is not that encouraging in terms of historically significant economic stimulus, i.e. the kind that creates investment in the US in new technologies and companies.
There are rebates for taxes paid in the past. So you get some money in your pocket in terms of your payroll tax getting cut. That provides some consumption boost as it gives more money each paycheck, but it is not the kind of 'buy this equipment or service and you get a tax credit' incentive that we call the 'use it or lose it' tax incentive that prompts you to spend the money by investing in capital goods. What happens with a lot of this money during hard times is that it is saved when the idea is to get it into the economy in ways that will require more production and new ideas to come to market. Thus the historical success of the 'you get it if you spend it' approach. From the early drafts, this will get the lion's share of the tax cuts.
There is $100B going toward business tax cuts, including some accelerated depreciation, but as we have noted before, there is already a generous Section 169 expensing provision that at last memory check was either $125K or $150K. That is a pretty big chunk of change for the mom and pop small businesses already, and adding some accelerated depreciation is not going to make cash strapped very small businesses spend more than the $150K they can already expense up front.
There are also some credits if you hire employees. There may be something there if you need the employee, but if you don't, it is a big, big expense to bring on a new hire for a modest tax credit. In addition, some smart people who have looked at the plan say the small businesses get a tax cut but then the owners' marginal tax rates increase, making it a net wash. How much stimulus is provided if your net benefit is zero? You need to get something if you act and miss out if you don't. That is what gets businesses and individuals to take action and spend and invest in areas that spur economic growth. People are smart; if they get a benefit for acting, they will act. If it is a shell game and they get something here but lose the same amount there, they will sit pat.
Thus far this plan remains disappointing even with tax cuts thrown in. The thing is, many republicans campaign as if any tax cut is a good tax cut and thus they may jump on it like a starving dog on a mouse or they have to explain why they don't like these tax cuts versus others. It can be done, but there has not been a good explanation since Ronald Reagan as to what tax cuts work and what tax cuts do relatively little.
家园 THE MARKET MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 39.08; -0.11
VXN: 39.07; -0.04
VXO: 39.35; +0.77
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.83; -0.13
NASDAQ
Stats: -4.18 points (-0.26%) to close at 1628.03
Volume: 1.776B (+20.89%). Strongest volume in two weeks.
Up Volume: 896.17M (-448.806M). Up volume shaved downside volume even as NASDAQ finished lower, showing underlying positive strength.
Down Volume: 864.875M (+731.56M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1. Down index but breadth was positive. More strength than meets the eye.
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.79 to 1
New Highs: 16 (0)
New Lows: 10 (-8)
Held steady on the session, tapping the 50 day EMA on the low (1640) and recovering 24 points off the low. This holds the break over the 50 day and the higher high made last week. As noted above, not bad action given that the new year could have brought in a big rush of sellers.
SOX (+0.62%) posted the only gain of the indices of note. As noted last week, continued strength in chips even as they are despised is just what you want to see.
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -4.35 points (-0.47%) to close at 927.45
NYSE Volume: 1.323B (+26.53%). Matched last Wednesday trade so this was no major upside surge. Getting closer to average but still not there.
Up Volume: 714.437M (-203.291M). Up volume topped down volume here as well, a sign of internal strength.
Down Volume: 599.219M (+480.582M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.02 to 1. Down overall but upside on the breadth even with SP600 down 0.76%. Another sign of internal strength.
Previous Session: Advancers led 5 to 1
New Highs: 33 (+2)
New Lows: 57 (-3)
Flat as well after moving positive a fraction a couple of times as it came off a test toward the 50 day EMA (916) on the low (919). Very quiet, very orderly test of last week's move over this key level as well as the higher high.
SP600 (-0.76%) tapped right at the 50 day EMA as well and recovered lost ground. Still lost a couple of points on the session but a very nice test and recovery, rebounding to take back twice the points it lost on the close. Very nice test of a key break over key resistance.
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 Chart: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.JPEG
SP400 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP400.jpeg
DJ30
The blue chips lost the most ground Monday but it too tapped toward the 50 day EMA on the low and recovered some lost ground. Volume remained at last week's levels and well below average. No major groundswell of trading Monday, and the low volume is a positive for the test of the break to a new high and over the 50 day EMA last week.
Stats: -18.8 points (-0.91%) to close at 8952.89
VOLUME: 233M shares Monday versus 213M shares Friday. On par with the Wednesday and Friday trade and still well below average.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
家园 TUESDAY Commodities and company led the market Monday, continuing their rally while a lot of the recent leaders that got things started were flat to lower. Good rotation in the market is what you like to see. There were no major breakdowns and an orderly pullback by some of these stocks to test near support can give us a good entry as the rebound along with the indices after they make this test of last week's break over the 50 day EMA as well as the higher high hit on this rally.
Monday we saw nothing to dissuade us from the position that the market has started a solid rally after growing some backbone in early December along with a wider swath of leadership. Small caps were down, but as noted above, they made a good orderly test of the break over the 50 day EMA just as did the other indices. That puts them in good position to rally again and give us some entry points as well.
The indices might test some more as the new year settles in. Of course you want to see more of the same orderly testing and not a surge of selling volume that pushes the indices down and gives back the ground won, at least not in a big selling swell. Orderly pullbacks with leaders holding support is what you want to see. That sets up the next move higher. It would be really nice to see the indices hold most of this move, basically over the higher high and the 50 day EMA on a closing basis and then surge higher again. That would show increasing strength in the rally as more investors come back to work after the holiday season.
The market still has to show us its real colors for the new year, but as noted, the initial trade is positive. Thus we are continuing to look for opportunities off of this test to catch solid stocks in good position to rally higher. As noted last year (okay, a couple of weeks back), a rally up to the early November peak on the indices is a significant move to significant resistance. That will require a re-evaluation of the rally and the market overall at that point, looking at the upside volume and leadership for example. It may die at that point, it may surge more. Up to that point, however, we have some great positions that are making us money and will do so on that rally, and we are going to pick up some more along the way to ride to that point once this pullback/test runs its course.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1628.03
Resistance:
1644 from August 2003
1752 from 2004
The 90 day SMA at 1771
1782 from August 2004
1786 is the November 2008 high. Key level.
1948 is the early October 2008 gap down level
Support:
1620 from the early 2001 low
The 50 day EMA at 1609
1603 is the December peak
The 10 day EMA is 1571
1565 is the second low in October 2008
The 18 day EMA at 1556
1550 is the 50 day SMA that stalled NASDAQ last week
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1499.21 is the 2008 closing low
1493 is the October 2008 low. Key low.
1428 is the November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1295 is the November 2008 low
S&P 500: Closed at 927.45
Resistance:
965 is the 2003 consolidation low
995 from June 2003 consolidation peak
The 90 day SMA at 996
1008 is the November 2008 peak
1065 is the Q4 2003 level that SP500 started the run to 2007 after the first run in the recovery.
Support:
919 is the early December peak
The 50 day EMA at 916
899 is the early October closing low
The 10 day EMA at 898
896 is the late November 2008 peak
The 18 day EMA at 890
889 is an interim 2002 peak
866 is the second October 2008 low
853 is the July 2002 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
839 is the early October 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
818 is the November 2008 low
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
741 is the November 2008 low
Dow: Closed at 8952.89
Resistance:
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9200 is the July peak in the 2003 consolidation
9323 From June 2003 peak
The 90 day SMA at 9444
9575 from September 2003, May 2001
9654 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
8934 is the December closing high
The 50 day EMA at 8867
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
The 10 day EMA at 8733
The 18 day EMA at 8680
The 50 day SMA at 8651
8626 from December 2002
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8451 is the early October closing low. Key level to watch.
8141 is the early December low
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
7965 is the November 2008 intraday low.
7882 is the early October 2008 low. Key level to watch.
7702 is the July 2002 low
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
7449 is the November 2008 low
7282 is the October 2002 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
January 5 - Monday
November Construction Spending (10:00): -0.6% actual versus -1.4% expected, -1.2% prior
January 6 - Tuesday
November Factory Orders (10:00): -2.6% expected, -5.1% prior
ISM Services, December (10:00): 37.0 expected, 37.3 prior
January 8 - Thursday
1/03 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 550K expected, 492K prior
Consumer Credit, November (2:00): $0.5B expected, -$3.5B prior
January 9 - Friday
December Average Workweek (8:30): 33.5 expected, 33.5 prior
Hourly Earnings, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Nonfarm Payrolls, December (8:30): -475K expected, -533K prior
Unemployment Rate, December (8:30): 7.0% expected, 6.7%
Wholesale Inventories, November (10:00): -0.9% expected, -1.1% prior
- 复 TUESDAY
家园 THE PLAYS: Upside:
Play Date: 01/05/2009
CBST (Cubist Pharmaceuticals--$25.07; +0.02; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbst.html
EARNINGS: 1-22-08
STATUS: Ascending base. CBST suffered the dips in October along with most of the market, but it recovered as fast as it went down, continuing the work on a 13 month base. That morphed into the current 8 week base that is making some higher lows, the most recent using the 50 day EMA (23.82) in the past couple of weeks. Volume is on the rise again as CBST narrows its pattern. CBST is a stock that has based for roughly all of 2006 through 2008 in a range from 17 to 25. It has laid the foundation for a great run once more if the buyers give it the push to break it out. When it does make the break it has plenty of room to the upside to run as the last higher peak is at 37 back in 2001.
Volume: 1.026M Avg Volume: 1.42M
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=2M Target=$29.96 Stop=$23.76
POSITION: UTU EE - May $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cbst.html
Play Date: 01/05/2009
INSU (Insituform Technologies--$19.92; +0.70; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/insu.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Test breakout. INSU broke higher last week, moving out of a 15 week base on strong volume. It tested, and then Monday was bouncing again on stronger, above average trade. This move is also making a higher high in its larger 22 month cup base. This volume shows accumulation ready to push INSU higher and toward a March 2007 gap down point at 25. Very strong money flow is moving higher, a complement to the strong volume on the upside. Like the new high in the big base as INSU is stepping up as a leader.
Volume: 632.504K Avg Volume: 440.298K
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=625K Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.89
POSITION: ISQ CD - Mar. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/insu.html
Play Date: 01/05/2009
OSIR (Osiris Therapeutics--$20.00; +0.61; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osir.html
EARNINGS: Early February
STATUS: Ascending base. OSIR was a new issue in Q3 2006. It surged and is now in a long 2 year cup base with the current 13 week pattern setting up a breakout move from the bigger base. OSIR has quietly set up this breakout and is in position to run once it makes the move. Money flow is surging ahead of price and OSIR has put itself in great position for a good run on the breakout. Want to see some good volume as it makes its break. Note how it is ready for that new 52 week high, showing it is a market leader as the stock market comes off of its bottom.
Volume: 108.188K Avg Volume: 162.429K
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=250K Target=$23.97 Stop=$19.04
POSITION: QIU ED - May $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/osir.html
Play Date: 01/05/2009
POT (Potash--$82.62; +5.27; optionable): Fertilizer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
EARNINGS: 1-22-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Good volume jump Monday as POT broke over the 50 day EMA (77.88) and started the breakout from its 11 week base formed at the bottom of the June to December selloff. This marks a higher high for POT as it has come off its low. May test back some after this break; that is often the case after a stock makes the break over key resistance. If it continues on up, however, we will move into some positions and then see how it tests and see if we can add some more.
Volume: 13.564M Avg Volume: 17.018M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher: $82.91. Can test back toward the 50 day EMA and we can pick it up on the rebound. Volume=22M Target=$95.89 Stop=$77.69
POSITION: PVZ CP - Mar. $80c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pot.html
Play Date: 01/05/2009
RIMM (Research in Motion--$43.30; +1.38; optionable): Blackberry PDA's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
STATUS: Cup. After gapping lower in late September as earnings surged but its forecast hurt it. It sold off into October but the momentum slowed and it started work on the current cup base. It is holding at the Q3 2006 to Q2 2007 consolidation range; if that holds RIMM has put in a good bottom to rally from. Gapped on Monday but stalled out at the 50 day SMA (43.09). Looking for some more upside to move into positions and see how far RIMM will take us on this move. There is that gap down point from up near 100, but not expecting it to fill that over the next month or so. Nonetheless RIMM can make us a great gain as it rallies off this low.
Volume: 20.744M Avg Volume: 28.937M
BUY POINT: $43.77 Volume=31M Target=$52.91 Stop=$40.85
POSITION: RUP CH - Mar. $40c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rimm.html