主题：关于1979年中印GDP比较有如下结果 -- wolfgan

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这个说的对

1952年，中国电力80亿度，到1978年，2700亿度。美国从4700亿到2.3万亿度，日本从530亿到5500亿，印度从60亿度到1000亿，，巴西从90亿度到1000亿度，看到没，战后各国增速都很快。中国那样低的基数，增速与别国没拉开量级差距。。

再看看1978年到2019年，中国增长31倍，美日都不到1倍，印度18倍，巴西6倍。

二战之后，大家的基数都低，增长率都很容易提高，当然会有快有慢，但是没有数量级的区别。

但是，qq老兄提到的MPS与SNA方法有意思，我提供的靶子里面有提到这点 https://www.conference-board.org/pdfdownload.cfm?masterProductID=8492，

那篇论文从第10页开始解释为啥MPS会夸大增长率，并且用数学公式证明了这一论点，可惜，河里无人应战。

至于河里左派津津乐道的电力发展数据，论文的第17页讲实证验证的，也提到了其他人的实证研究成果，其中一些涉及能源，有心深入了解的河友，其实可以看看专业人士是如何验证的。

Empirical evidence

This upward-bias hypothesis has been investigated and tested for the total

economy by various empirical studies using different approaches ranging from

physical output or commodity indicator (Maddison, 1998a and 2007; Maddison and

Wu, 2008), 12 energy consumption (Adams and Chen, 1996; Rawski, 2001), food

consumption (Garnaut and Ma, 1993), to foreign price approximation (Ren, 1997).

Despite different results, all alternative measures appear to be strongly supportive to

the hypothesis. For example, for the period 1978-97, compared with the official GDP

growth rate of 9.8 percent per annum, it is estimated as 4.8 percent by the energy

approach (Adams and Chen, 1996), 6.8 to 8.5 percent by alternative price indices

(Ren, 1997; Wu, 2000), and 7.5 percent by volume movement (Maddison, 1998). For

the period 1978-2005, the annual growth rate is estimated by Maddison and Wu (2008)

at 7.9 percent per annum compared with the official estimated rate of 9.6 percent per

annum

有趣有益，互惠互利；开阔视野，博采众长。
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