主题：04/20/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 04/20/2009

BKE (Buckle, Inc.--$33.32; -1.04; no options): Apparel stores

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bke.html

After Hours: $33.32

EARNINGS: 05/21/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. BKE is one of the retail and market leaders off the lows, breaking out from a 3 month base in mid-March and rallying up to 37 last week. It is now testing, coming back to the 18 day EMA (32.87) and holding that level the past few sessions. Low volume as it tests shows no heavy selling. Sure it could break down here and if it does break down it is a short; the put option spreads are too wide to go that route. Looks strong, however, and the test is solid. Thus we are going to wait and let it test and look for an upside play off of the near support.

Volume: 597.97K Avg Volume: 977.002K

BUY POINT: $34.64 Volume=1.2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.57

POSITION: - Stock (option spread too wide)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bke.html

Play Date: 04/20/2009

YUM (Yum! Brands--$31.33; -0.74; optionable): KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Long John Silver's, etc.

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html

After Hours: $31.33

EARNINGS: 04/22/2009

STATUS: Test 200 day SMA (30.78). YUM broke through the 200 day last week, clearing a 3 month reverse head and shoulders pattern. Strong volume on the move and Monday it started testing and on lower, below average volume. Expecting a test on back to the 200 day and then a bounce. Now earnings are on Wednesday and that could be perfect timing for a bounce up. We can wait to see how earnings treat the stock or we can move in with some positions ahead of time. YUM sold back for 3 sessions on its January earnings but it recovered. Aggressive to move in ahead of the results, but this pullback after the breakout makes it worth a few positions to us.

Volume: 5.04M Avg Volume: 5.176M

BUY POINT: $30.91 Volume=6.5M Target=$34.94 Stop=$29.77

POSITION: YUM GF - July $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/yum.html

Downside:

Play Date: 04/20/2009

BA (Boeing--$36.48; -1.84; optionable): Airplanes

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ba.html

After Hours: $36.48

EARNINGS: 04/22/2009

STATUS: Trendline break. Rallied nicely off the March low, putting in almost as solid a run higher as the nasty February selloff. It bumped resistance at 39 three times and then gapped lower Monday below the trendline. Looks primed for some more downside and a move to the target lands a 45%ish gain. With earnings on Wednesday we don't think there is much chance of a rescue for BA with those results so we are more than happy to move in ahead of them.

Volume: 7.017M Avg Volume: 8.558M

BUY POINT: $36.32 Volume=9M Target=$33.22 Stop=$37.21

POSITION: BA RJ - June $36p (-43 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ba.html

Play Date: 04/20/2009

GS (Goldman Sachs--$115.01; -5.59; optionable)

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html

After Hours: $114.60

EARNINGS: 04/13/2009

STATUS: Downside. Some won't short GS, but it has formed a short head and shoulders pattern over the past three weeks and gapped lower Monday. It held the 18 day EMA on the close, and while still in the uptrend it is very, very choppy and needs a consolidation. Before it moves into that mode we anticipate a break lower toward the 50 day EMA (103.50). A move to the target lands a 37%ish gain.

Volume: 21.609M Avg Volume: 28.194M

BUY POINT: $114.44 Volume=30M Target=$104.55 Stop=$120.31

POSITION: GS RC - June $115p (-42 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gs.html

Play Date: 04/20/2009

VLO (Valero Energy--$20.08; -1.64; optionable): Refineries

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html

After Hours: $20.10

EARNINGS: 04/27/2009

STATUS: Break trendline. Another stock that rallied well off the March low and then broke down through its short trendline. Volume spiked to above average as it did; the sellers were in control. It is still over the 50 day EMA (19.97) and on a move below that level we are ready to move in for the continued downside. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.

Volume: 12.631M Avg Volume: 12.475M

BUY POINT: $19.91 Volume=12M Target=$17.86 Stop=$20.68

POSITION: VLB RT - June $20p (-41 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vlo.html