- 程序有所改变。发帖如还有问题请报告
- 【征集】西西河的经济学,及清流措施,需要主动参与者,『稷下学宫』新认证方式,24年网站打算和努力目标
主题:04/20/2009 Market View -- 宁子
The run to safety Monday, i.e. the moves into US Treasuries, the US dollar, and into gold, once again arose as the worries about a global economic recovery materialized. Why Monday? Why Monday when last week China's growth rate showed the lowest since the Boxer Rebellion? Why Monday when the prior three weeks the economic news out of the EU was on the lines of Europe in the immediate aftermath of WWII?
Okay I am embellishing a bit but the point is that the data about the troubles in the rest of the world has been very apparent but the market rallied anyway. It was only when the largest US banks were truly threatened with nationalization that the woes of the rest of the world became enough to supposedly cause the spin lower. The reason: if the US goes to centrally planned economies as in Europe we won't be the engine that drives the rest of the world, or more accurately, funds Europe's ability to take an entire month or two off from business each year and virtually shut down the countries as far as business. That doesn't even cover funding their low cost drugs with our research and higher prices here so they can mandate low prices in their countries. Said it before but we keep hearing it from our friends in Europe: 'what the hell is going on over there?'
The after hours earnings from IBM and TXN were better than expected and helped raise some optimism about Tuesday, somewhat blunting the Monday selloff. They both topped expectations, beating earnings and revenues, and both had more favorable out looks with TXN raising its midpoint expectations sharply and IBM noting its improved comfort level with its 2009 guidance. These stocks were up after hours and overall there was a positive response, but it of course was not taking back the lion's share of the Monday losses.
The earnings could be enough to blunt further selling and deflect it into more of that consolidation or sideways move discussed above that would allow the indices to hold the line and again set up for a move higher.
We have to see how this plays out. The selling was sharp. SP500 hit some serious resistance after a good run higher and at a minimum it needs to consolidate a bit. Volumes mercifully didn't surge, but they were not light trade sessions. When you have 4% to 5% declines in a session that requires some attention and typically does not work itself out in just a day or two. The indices were up 20+% and on light trade the last half of the move. They made some key moves but the light volume undermined the gains. Now the market has to sort out whether it is serious about an economic recovery from here.
This could mean at a minimum some sideways chop that makes little headway, but that also is good consolidation action for the market. In the initial drop, however, we can look at some downside plays on stocks that have rallied nicely, are breaking the near trendline, and have some room to fall. We issued a bonus alert on AA to the downside at the close Monday after we spotted its break and the good option pricing and potential decline. It is still a buy on Tuesday if it does not gap lower. Indeed if the IBM and TXN indices bounce some stocks higher early that could give us good downside entry points on these quicker plays of the trendline breaks.
We closed some positions that broke their trendlines to preserve gain and we let others that were holding support hold over to see if they get a pop off the support. If they do but cannot gather strength, i.e. volume is low and they bounce toward resistance but stall, we can use the bounce and close them out. If things reverse to the upside, cool. We let them. We just don't anticipate that happening after the move to this point and the lower trade on the latter part of the move. We protect current positions that struggle to hold support and at the same time look for good pullbacks for the future upside bounces while we also play some downside that presents itself for some easy and rather quick gains.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1608.21
Resistance:
1620 from the early 2001 low
1623 is the early April peak
1644 from August 2003
The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)
1661 is the April 2009 prior peak
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1785
1947 is the October gap down point
Support:
1603 is the December peak
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 1537
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
S&P 500: Closed at 832.39
Resistance:
839 is the early October 2008 low
842 is the early April peak
846 is the April peak
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
833 is the March 2009 peak
The 90 day SMA at 826
818 is the early November 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 816
815 is the early December 2008 low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
Dow: Closed at 7841.73
Resistance:
7867 is the early February low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7909 is the early January low
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
The early April peak at 8076
The April peak at 8113
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 7771
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
April 20 - Monday
March Leading Economic Indicators (10:00): -0.3% actual versus -0.2% expected, -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%)
April 22 - Wednesday
04/17 Crude Oil Inventories (10:35): +5.670M prior
April 23 - Thursday
04/18 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 630K expected, 610K prior
Existing Home Sales, March (10:00): 4.65M expected, 4.72M
April 24 - Friday
March Durable Orders (8:30): -1.5% expected, 5.1% prior
Durable Orders, Ex-Auto, March (8:30): -1.2% expected, 3.9% prior
New Home Sales, March (10:00): 340K expected, 337K prior
- 相关回复 上下关系4
🙂04/20/2009 Market View 2 宁子 字7182 2009-04-20 19:32:55
🙂THE MARKET 宁子 字7830 2009-04-20 19:33:31
🙂TUESDAY
🙂THE PLAYS 1 宁子 字4220 2009-04-20 21:54:08