主题：04/17/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 04/18/2009

AMSC (American Superconductor--$20.44; +1.08; optionable): Electronics, conducting materials

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsc.html

After Hours: $20.52

EARNINGS: Early May( last announced 02/03/2009)

STATUS: Broke out from a 3.5 month base Friday, gapping over the 200 day SMA (19.23) on the best volume since the start of the month. Nice breakout to a new post-selloff high, that important higher high after the downtrend. It is not extended and is still in position to make a further run on what looks to be a solid breakout move. Plenty of time to give us a good pre-earnings run up to next resistance near 25.

Volume: 1.041M Avg Volume: 635.86K

BUY POINT: $20.58 Volume=700K Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.14

POSITION: QAY GD - July $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amsc.html

Play Date: 04/18/2009

BMC (BMC Software--$33.13; -0.10; optionable): Application software

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmc.html

After Hours: $33.13

EARNINGS: Early May (last announced 02/04/2009)

STATUS: Pennant. The past three weeks BMC has formed a 3-week pennant using the 18 day EMA (32.86) as support. You can say this is the handle to a much larger 10 month cup with handle base if you want. Either way it is a very nice set up for a break to the upside as BMC surged the second half of March and has now consolidated that run, trading in a tight range on low volume over near support. Ready to move in as it starts the next upside jump.

Volume: 2.724M Avg Volume: 3.539M

BUY POINT: $33.74 Volume=5M Target=$37.94 Stop=$31.68

POSITION: BMC HZ - Aug. $32.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bmc.html

Play Date: 04/18/2009

LUK (Leucadia National--$18.40; -0.31; optionable): Lumber, wood production

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html

After Hours: $18.40

EARNINGS: 02/27/2009

STATUS: Flag. LUK formed a January to early April base. Jumped higher two Fridays back on strong volume, then spent all last week testing, waiting for the 10 day EMA (17.77) to catch up. It is just about there, and often when a good breakout gets the 10 day EMA back under it the next run higher starts. Thus we are watching for LUK to make another upside move and give us the entry point.

Volume: 3.033M Avg Volume: 2.924M

BUY POINT: $18.77 Volume=3.8M Target=$22.77 Stop=$17.65

POSITION: LUK FW - June $17.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/luk.html

Play Date: 04/18/2009

NTRS (Northern Trust--$63.06; -0.70; optionable): Regional Midwest banks

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntrs.html

After Hours: $63.40

EARNINGS: 04/21/2009

STATUS: Ascending base. Earnings are next Tuesday, a bit close for comfort, but we are seeing a lot of call buying in the regional banks and NTRS is set up well to make a break higher. NTRS has been bouncing up off the 50 day EMA (58.73), making higher and higher lows. This past week it is coming back to test a bounce off the 50 day, holding the 200 day SMA (61.24) on the lows. It is putting in much higher low and that often precedes the breakout. Looking to pick up some positions ahead of earnings, a riskier play but we like the action in the regionals.

Volume: 3.974M Avg Volume: 4.328M

BUY POINT: $64.69 Volume=5M Target=$74.65 Stop=$61.11

POSITION: NRQ GM - July $65c (48 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ntrs.html

Play Date: 04/18/2009

OSIS (OSI Systems--$17.31; +0.40; optionable): Chip equipment

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osis.html

After Hours: $17.31

EARNINGS: 04/30/2009

STATUS: Ascending triangle. After the dive into November OSIS based then broke sharply higher in late January on its earnings announcement. Quite the surge. It has since consolidated that 6 point run with the current 2.5 month ascending triangle, using the 50 day EMA (15.82) as rising support. The 200 day SMA (17.25) has been declining to the row of constant tops, and on Friday OSIS moved higher and closed at the 200 day. Volume is very low; want to see volume surge as OSIS makes the breakout. These breakouts can be very strong and we need to be ready when OSIS makes the break.

Volume: 68.291K Avg Volume: 170.989K

BUY POINT: $17.56 Volume=256K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.33

POSITION: UOJ GW - July $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/osis.html

Downside:

Play Date: 04/18/2009

APOL (Apollo Group--$66.33; -0.22; optionable): Private education, training

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html

After Hours: $66.37

EARNINGS: 03/31/2009

STATUS: Put. The education stocks had great runs as they always seem to do as recessions get underway, then the fizzle and fall. APOL is fizzling and falling. It bounced off the 200 day SMA (68.46) in March with a double bottom, but then gapped lower to end March on its earnings announcement. Sold off through the 200 day and last week rebounded to test that move, rising on low volume. Friday APOL showed a doji below the 200 day, an indication that it is ready to turn back down. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.

Volume: 3.278M Avg Volume: 4.991M

BUY POINT: $65.55 Volume=5M Target=$61.42 Stop=$67.97

POSITION: OAQ QM - May $65p (-40 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apol.html