主题：04/17/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Six weeks into the rally and that is about twice as long as many felt it would last. We have been cautious since late March though that has not kept us from buying into good moves and accordingly making really good money as the move continues. This is truly a case where your gut can steer you wrong. You may feel that the move cannot continue, but if there is a lot of leadership working well, you let the market do the talking and you follow along. That has worked very well for us. It always does.

But now the cry for a correction is very loud. Last week old salts on the NYSE floor were saying a test was coming and that Tuesday may have been the start. Then of course Wednesday was a reversal day off support and Thursday was a big upside session. Even Friday with its modest gains overcame downside to post that positive close. The action on SOX, the clear market leaders, suggests the move is indeed hitting some air pockets. It was up and down and made little headway as it bumps key resistance. If you look at SP500 you see it is almost at a 78% retracement of the decline from the January peak to the March low and that is a key level to watch on any rebound as it can act as resistance. Another indication the move has some issues at this level.

This past week saw key indices break to higher highs and even build something of a cushion after doing so, e.g. NASDAQ 100 and SOX, and to a lesser extent NASDAQ. You like to see that from leaders, i.e. breaking resistance and putting some distance on it to allow for that old resistance to become support when that inevitable test comes. You want to see a big enough move through resistance to give an index room to test and hold. That is very healthy action when that occurs. As noted, NASDAQ 100 and SOX have put themselves in that position. If the market tests back from here we will look for these leading indices to test the last resistance and if they hold the move still has the sand to continue.

All this means that we don't want to chase too many positions higher at this point. We have some great plays in progress that have made us a lot of money and we took some nice gain once more as the upside moves on the week progressed. We also took some new positions last week on some great stocks that tested back during the week. We enter the new week watching these carefully in the event the move stalls out. As noted, SOX and NASDAQ 100 have room to test and set up for yet another move higher. We have seen, however, that it takes the financial stocks along with the techs to really move the market higher. Last week they were trading off and the market was up but not with any power. If the financials take a break or sell back on the stress testing rumors the overall market struggles.

A pullback would not be a bad development for the market. It has run 6 weeks in a steady orderly manner but it and SOX is at the 200 day SMA while NASDAQ 100 is less than 50 points from its 200 day. It is even closer to the November peak. Financials were nonresponsive, at least in a big way, to good earnings. SOX was choppy at its resistance. It is easier to make a case for a pullback. Keep in the back of the mind, however, that these low volume rises can continue much longer than anyone anticipates.

Thus for this week we are mindful that the indices are at critical levels and showing some stress. We are mindful that early week after a move higher into expiration there is frequently some retrenching. We watch our stops and how our stocks behave at support. If they get dicey there is no point in hanging around in too many positions. Those in solid shape can maintain the course but if things deteriorate, i.e. volume turns higher on some selling and near support starts cracking, might as well take some more money off the table and let the test come. It can be a short test or something more significant, but because we took nice gain on the way up and will mind our positions at support, we will be in great shape to take advantage of the next move after the test.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1673.07

Resistance:

1780 is the November 2008 peak

The 200 day SMA at 1785

1947 is the October gap down point

Support:

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1661 is the April 2009 prior peak

The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)

1644 from August 2003

The 10 day EMA at 1627

1623 is the early April peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1603 is the December peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

The 50 day EMA at 1534

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

S&P 500: Closed at 869.60

Resistance:

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

866 is the second October 2008 low

857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken

853 is the July 2002 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

The 10 day EMA at 846

846 is the April peak

842 is the early April peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

833 is the March 2009 peak

The 90 day SMA at 827

818 is the early November 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

The 50 day EMA at 815

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 8131.33

Resistance:

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The April peak at 8113

The early April peak at 8076

The 10 day EMA at 7986

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7909 is the early January low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

The 50 day EMA at 7768

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 20 - Monday

March Leading Economic Indicators (10:00): -0.2% expected, -0.4% prior

April 22 - Wednesday

04/17 Crude Oil Inventories (10:35): +5.670M prior

April 23 - Thursday

04/18 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 630K expected, 610K prior

Existing Home Sales, March (10:00): 4.65M expected, 4.72M

April 24 - Friday

March Durable Orders (8:30): -1.5% expected, 5.1% prior

Durable Orders, Ex-Auto, March (8:30): -1.2% expected, 3.9% prior

New Home Sales, March (10:00): 340K expected, 337K prior