主题：04/13/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside: Looking for some runs ahead of earnings.

Play Date: 04/13/2009

AXE (Anixter International--$35.24; +1.41; optionable): Wholesale electronics, telecom wire, cable, fasteners, parts

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axe.html

After Hours: $35.24

EARNINGS: 04/28/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Monday as AXE just cracked the breakout from its 2.5 month base. Nice higher low at the bottom of the base, holding the initial consolidation level in December as AXE came off the low. Excellent action and looking to pick up AXE as it hacks its way higher. Plenty of room to run up to the 200 day SMA (42.69) ahead of its earnings.

Volume: 944.631K Avg Volume: 590.776K

BUY POINT: $35.42 Volume=600K Target=$42.22 Stop=$32.94

POSITION: AXE HG - Aug. $35c (56 delta, 77 OI) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/axe.html

Play Date: 04/13/2009

DO (Diamond Offshore--$70.75; -0.64; optionable): Offshore drilling

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html

After Hours: $70.69

EARNINGS: 04/23/2009

STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After a 4 month trading range DO has made a higher low at the midpoint of the range, holding near the 50 day SMA (63.55) on the low as it forms a 4 week accumulation pattern. A higher low after 4 to 5 cycles in a rolling range tells you to watch for a breakout; the range cannot last forever and the higher low tells you buyers were stepping in at a higher price, indicating more buyers are moving in. Bumping the neckline and we are watching for a break higher on some stronger trade (volume has been quite weak) to step in. DO can move on low volume so it just has to show some better trade as it makes the break higher. Plenty of room to run up to the 200 day SMA at 83.77.

Volume: 2.247M Avg Volume: 3.581M

BUY POINT: $71.62 Volume=4.5M Target=$82.94 Stop=$68.48

POSITION: DO FN - June $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html

Play Date: 04/13/2009

LRCX (Lam Research--$25.30; -0.26; optionable): Chip equipment

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html

After Hours: $25.09

EARNINGS: Late April (last announced 01/28/2009)

STATUS: Ascending triangle. LRCX broke out from a 4 month trading range mid-March, and in consolidating that move has formed the current 4 week triangle, making higher lows below a peak in the 26 range. Indeed the 200 day SMA (25.78) is just below that level and has blocked LRCX the past two sessions as it bumped that level on the highs. Showing a doji on volume and looks ready to make the break. Nice clean shot at 30 on a break higher and looking for that move ahead of its late April earnings announcement.

Volume: 4M Avg Volume: 3.678M

BUY POINT: $26.08 Volume=5M Target=$29.95 Stop=$24.25

POSITION: LMQ FE - June $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lrcx.html

Play Date: 04/13/2009

STLD (Steel Dynamics--$11.25; +0.56; optionable): Steel and iron

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html

After Hours: $10.23

EARNINGS: 04/22/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. STLD shows down after hours but it was a late trade and there is no news that we can find. It gave a good move on the session, clearing the early April peak (10.78) on rising trade. Like the positioning as there is plenty of room to run to the upside toward resistance at 14. If it is down in the morning we will watch to see where it holds (the 90 day SMA is at 10.25) and when it starts to bounce move in. Looking for a trade into earnings with the idea to move in, ride it upside, then sell it before the results.

Volume: 7.705M Avg Volume: 8.408M

BUY POINT: $11.39 Volume=9.5M Target=$13.94 Stop=$10.44

POSITION: RQL HB - Aug. $10c (70 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stld.html

Continuing plays ready to move:

Play Date: 04/10/2009

CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$20.74; +0.04; optionable): Natural gas exploration, production

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html

After Hours: $20.80

EARNINGS: 02/17/2009

STATUS: Trading range breakout. Holding steady Monday, at least on the close. CHK reached down and tested the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded. Good shakeout. It is holding over the resistance it broke Thursday, and now CHK is ready to make the next run higher. To recap: CHK bounced up and down in its 4 month trading range from 14 to 20 and then gapped out of the pattern Thursday. This move is a bit different from the prior up and down cycles in the trading range: on the last dip off the high it held midrange at the 50 day EMA (17.55) and rebounded immediately to the top of the range, tested, and broke higher. It could still fall back in but after this many cycles (4) the range tends to break down and with the market breaking higher it is logical for CHK to break higher as well. Thus looking to move in this week. It could test back to 20 first and if it does we will pick it up off that test. If not we can pick up positions from a continued move higher.

Volume: 13.799M Avg Volume: 17.249M

BUY POINT: $21.11 Volume=22M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.63

POSITION: CHK GD - July $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chk.html