主题：04/13/2009 Market View -- 宁子

GS was the news after hours with its early earnings release that crushed expectations at $3.39 versus $1.60. The problem for GS was the $5B stock offering; that is a big wad of new stock and the dilutive effect may have been what was holding GS down a couple of clicks after hours.

There is a lot of talk on the financial stations about the upside running out of steam. It may be the case as DJ30 is not a picture of strength, but there are other indices that are very solid, e.g. SOX, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100. SP500 even looks pretty good despite the resistance. It has a lot of overhead to deal with but perhaps GS can give the financials another reason to rally, and if the techs and chips get back in we get another nice run.

That is what we of course want to see on into the next week or so of earnings season as it gives our positions a nice ramp higher and we can use that to lighten up as the earnings news gets saturated and unable to push stocks higher in the event they remain positive as they have been thus far (RIMM, WFC, BBBY, and now GS).

The big issue is whether we continue to add positions at this point or just ride what we have higher? As noted above there are always new leaders coming to the fore when the market rallies well. Thus we took some positions Monday in for example DE as it tested back some after starting to move higher this month. V broke sharply higher after testing its break over key resistance. They are moving up as others test and rest. That is how the market rotates money and maintains its strength.

Thus we will take new opportunity as it arises as well as add to good positions we have that are in position and continue to show strong upside attributes, but we also know that earnings could go south (WFC, GS and other financials may be aberrations the rest of the economy cannot duplicate given their low or no cost access to cash to lend) or just run out of ability to drive stocks higher.

What we do is keep picking good stocks ready to move and in good position to move without loading up the boat and at the same time take gain on positions we currently have as they put in good moves. The move is a bit old and it has some serious resistance on SP500. That doesn't mean it stops in its tracks, but the risk/reward position overall is not as good as it was. Thus pick stocks in good position to move that have already announced earnings or have earnings announcements 3 to 4 or more weeks away. That does not totally insulate them from the overall market but it helps as we want to keep active as long as the move continues higher. The reason: no matter what all of us think the market is going to do, it is going to do what it wants. That may just mean it continues rising farther and longer than most everyone thinks it can. That is how the market usually works.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1653.31

Resistance:

The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

1947 is the October gap down point

Support:

1644 from August 2003

1623 is the April peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1603 is the December peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

The 10 day EMA at 1594

1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

The 50 day EMA at 1514

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day SMA at 1481

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

S&P 500: Closed at 858.73

Resistance:

857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

853 is the July 2002 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

846 is the April peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

833 is the March 2009 peak

The 10 day EMA at 831

The 90 day SMA at 827

818 is the early November 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

The 50 day EMA at 808

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 8057.81

Resistance:

The April peak at 8076

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The 90 day SMA at 7974

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7909 is the early January low

The 10 day EMA at 7885

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

The 50 day EMA at 7718

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 14 - Tuesday

PPI, March (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

Core PPI (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.1% prior

Retail sales, March (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.1% prior

Retail ex-auto (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.7% prior

Business inventories, February (10:00): -1.2% expected, -1.1% prior

April 15 - Wednesday

CPI, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior

Core CPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

New York PMI, April (8:30): -35.0 expected, -38.2 prior

Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 69.7% expected, 70.9% prior

Industrial Production, March (9:15): -0.9% expected, -1.4% prior

Crude oil inventories (10:30): +1.6M prior

Fed Beige Book (2:00)

April 16 - Thursday

Housing starts, March (8:30): 550K expected, 583K prior

Building permits, March (8:30): 550K expected, 547K prior

Initial jobless claims (8:30): 658K expected, 654K prior

Philly Fed, April (10:00): -32.0 expected, -35.0 prior

April 17 - Friday

Michigan Preliminary sentiment, April (9:55): 58.5 expected, 57.3 prior