主题：04/07/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside: Still in pullback mode and more upside is setting up for a bounce.

Play Date: 04/07/2009

ISIL (Intersil Holdings--$12.64; -0.38; optionable): Semiconductors

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isil.html

After Hours: $12.64

EARNINGS: Last week of April (last announced 1/28/2009)

STATUS: Breakout test. ISIL broke over resistance at 12 to start April, a strong move through a three week March consolidation. The strong break shows plenty of buyers to push it higher, and after this test ISIL will be in position to continue the breakout move. A successful test of the breakout is one of our favorite entry points. Looking for ISIL to test back a bit more toward the 10 day EMA (12.29) and then make the bounce where we will look to pick it up.

Volume: 2.926M Avg Volume: 4.037M

BUY POINT: Test the 10 day EMA at 12.30 and then on the bounce: $12.41 Volume=5M Target=$14.95 Stop=$11.54

POSITION: UFH GB - July $10c (77 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/isil.html

Play Date: 04/07/2009

MS (Morgan Stanley--$23.32; +0.01; optionable): Broker/dealer

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html

After Hours: $23.31

EARNINGS: Mid-June

STATUS: Pennant. MS has set up something of a pennant the past four weeks, bumping the 200 day SMA (24.60) at the highs in the pattern. On the downside of the base it has the rising 50 day EMA (21.64) as support, making higher lows over that level. This is part of a larger 3 month ascending base and a strong break over the 200 day is our entry point.

Volume: 45.463M Avg Volume: 47.632M

BUY POINT: $24.77 Volume=69M Target=$29.94 Stop=$23.04

POSITION: MS GY - July $24c (59 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ms.html

Play Date: 04/07/2009

RIO (Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce--$14.45; -0.47; optionable): Steel and iron

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rio.html

After Hours: $14.49

EARNINGS: 05/06/2009

STATUS: RIO is testing back from the gap higher to start the month, coming back to fill part of that move on lower, below average volume. RIO is building some higher lows after selling back from the early February run on the Obama infrastructure stimulus when everyone figured out the stimulus would not be anything immediate. RIO is making a higher low right here, and we are looking for RIO to hold and start back up on stronger volume.

Volume: 32.944M Avg Volume: 42.172M

BUY POINT: $15.11 Volume=50M Target=$17.94 Stop=$14.15

POSITION: RXO FC - June $15c (51 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rio.html

New Buy Points on Current Positions:

Play Date: 04/07/2009

NVLS (Novellus Systems--$16.35; -0.79; optionable): Chip equipment

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html

After Hours: $16.35

EARNINGS: 02/04/2009

STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. NVLS has made us some great money on this run already and it is making its obligatory test with the market the past two sessions, coming back on low trade Tuesday to test and hold the 200 day SMA (16.33). The test of the 200 day on lower trade makes this interesting, but it has to show some strong volume on the rebound as it clears the late March interim peak at 16.96 to show there is real conviction in sending it back up. Has been strong but it has to show us strength once more as it turns back up after this test.

Volume: 2.188M Avg Volume: 3.388M

BUY POINT: $17.04 Volume=5M Target=$20.45 Stop=$16.11

POSITION: NLQ FC - June $15c (68 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nvls.html

Downside:

Play Date: 04/07/2009

DRI (Darden Restaurants--$34.27; -1.36; optionable): Casual restaurants

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dri.html

After Hours: $34.27

EARNINGS: 06/23/2009

STATUS: Put. DRI gapped higher in mid-March on earnings and rallied, holding the 35ish level the past 3 weeks, moving laterally and trying to consolidate the big gap higher. Tuesday DRI was down on stronger, average volume, falling toward the bottom of the range. If it falls through the 18 day EMA (33.84) on a further rise in volume it looks as if DRI is heading to fill that gap down at 30. A move to that point lands a 44%ish gain.

Volume: 4.017M Avg Volume: 3.913M

BUY POINT: $33.78 Volume=4.3M Target=$30.65 Stop=$34.88

POSITION: DRI QG - May $35p (-46 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dri.html