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主题:04/07/2009 Market View -- 宁子
Two sessions left in this week. Wednesday we get crude inventories and February wholesale inventories. There is a low probability they will be market movers. Earnings are the focus and after hours Alcoa 'kicked off' earnings season as they like to say. If that was a kickoff then it netted negative ground. AA missed on the bottom line (-0.59 versus -0.56 expected) though revenues were a bit higher than expected. Call it a push. Call it whatever you want because AA is not a market mover.
The market is in a pullback phase and Wednesday is the third day. No Easter connotations there; it is just the way the market moves when it is moving well, i.e. 3-day pullbacks by good stocks follow by a new ascension. Better stop there.
What we are looking for Wednesday is another test and then we see how the buyers respond. The lower and lower volume shows the sellers are not racing in to drive stocks lower but instead shows sellers back off with some taking some profits while the remaining buyers regroup and look for new opportunity to the upside. If they step back in many stocks are in quite good position to move higher and we will be looking at those to grab for a rebound.
As discussed above the Friday holiday may put a crimp in that plan as buyers may not want to come in ahead of a 3-day weekend and risk the exposure. We will see. If there is an early selloff that sees SP500 find support in the 800 to 805ish range and we see good stocks bouncing we will be taking some positions, at least partial positions. That can give you a headfake, i.e. an early selloff and bounce off the low, but if SP500 holds those levels and bounces with NASDAQ holding the 1525ish range as well, that is pretty solid evidence of the buyers stepping in and worth some of our money that we have made the past several weeks getting put back to work.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1561.61
Resistance:
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1587 is the March 2009 high
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1603 is the December peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1644 from August 2003
The January closing low at 1653
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 1560
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
The 50 day EMA at 1499
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
The 50 day SMA at 1474
1440 is the January 2009 closing low
1434 is the January intraday low
1428 is the mid-November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1316 is the November 2008 closing low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday
1262 from July 2002
1192 is the July 2002 intraday low
1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low
S&P 500: Closed at 815.55
Resistance:
818 is the early November 2008 low
The 90 day SMA at 828
833 is the March 2009 peak
839 is the early October 2008 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 816
815 is the early December 2008 low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
The 50 day EMA at 803
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
722 is a December 1996 low
681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing
665 from August 1996
656-654 from January, April 1996
607-05 from November 1995
Dow: Closed at 7789.56
Resistance:
7867 is the early February low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7909 is the early January low
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
The 90 day SMA at 7993
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 7784
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 7682
The 18 day EMA at 7662
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
7449 is the November 2008 intraday low
7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.
7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market
7115 is the February 2009 closing low
7008 from February 1997 closing peak
6528 is the November 1996 peak
6489 from December 1996 closing peak
6356 is the April 1997 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
April 7 - Tuesday
February Consumer Credit (14:00): -$7.5B actual versus -$1.5B expected, $8.1B prior (revised from $1.8B)
April 8 - Wednesday
February Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -0.6% expected, -0.7% prior
Crude Oil Inventories, 04/03 (10:30): +2.84M prior
April 9 - Thursday
March Export Prices ex-aq. (8:30): 0.1% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, March (8:30): -0.6% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 04/04 (8:30): 669K prior
Trade Balance, February (8:30): -$36.5B expected, -$36.0B prior
April 10 - Friday
March Treasury Budget (14:00): -$157.0B expected, -$48.2B prior
- 相关回复 上下关系5
🙂04/07/2009 Market View 1 宁子 字4917 2009-04-07 19:31:58
🙂THE ECONOMY 宁子 字3013 2009-04-07 19:32:26
🙂THE MARKET 宁子 字6307 2009-04-07 19:32:59
🙂WEDNESDAY
🙂THE PLAYS: 宁子 字4269 2009-04-08 20:04:04