主题：04/07/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Two sessions left in this week. Wednesday we get crude inventories and February wholesale inventories. There is a low probability they will be market movers. Earnings are the focus and after hours Alcoa 'kicked off' earnings season as they like to say. If that was a kickoff then it netted negative ground. AA missed on the bottom line (-0.59 versus -0.56 expected) though revenues were a bit higher than expected. Call it a push. Call it whatever you want because AA is not a market mover.

The market is in a pullback phase and Wednesday is the third day. No Easter connotations there; it is just the way the market moves when it is moving well, i.e. 3-day pullbacks by good stocks follow by a new ascension. Better stop there.

What we are looking for Wednesday is another test and then we see how the buyers respond. The lower and lower volume shows the sellers are not racing in to drive stocks lower but instead shows sellers back off with some taking some profits while the remaining buyers regroup and look for new opportunity to the upside. If they step back in many stocks are in quite good position to move higher and we will be looking at those to grab for a rebound.

As discussed above the Friday holiday may put a crimp in that plan as buyers may not want to come in ahead of a 3-day weekend and risk the exposure. We will see. If there is an early selloff that sees SP500 find support in the 800 to 805ish range and we see good stocks bouncing we will be taking some positions, at least partial positions. That can give you a headfake, i.e. an early selloff and bounce off the low, but if SP500 holds those levels and bounces with NASDAQ holding the 1525ish range as well, that is pretty solid evidence of the buyers stepping in and worth some of our money that we have made the past several weeks getting put back to work.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1561.61

Resistance:

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1587 is the March 2009 high

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

The January closing low at 1653

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

The 10 day EMA at 1560

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

The 50 day EMA at 1499

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day SMA at 1474

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 815.55

Resistance:

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 828

833 is the March 2009 peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

The 10 day EMA at 816

815 is the early December 2008 low

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

The 50 day EMA at 803

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7789.56

Resistance:

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 7993

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The 10 day EMA at 7784

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

The 50 day EMA at 7682

The 18 day EMA at 7662

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 7 - Tuesday

February Consumer Credit (14:00): -$7.5B actual versus -$1.5B expected, $8.1B prior (revised from $1.8B)

April 8 - Wednesday

February Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -0.6% expected, -0.7% prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 04/03 (10:30): +2.84M prior

April 9 - Thursday

March Export Prices ex-aq. (8:30): 0.1% prior

Import Prices ex-oil, March (8:30): -0.6% prior

Initial Jobless Claims, 04/04 (8:30): 669K prior

Trade Balance, February (8:30): -$36.5B expected, -$36.0B prior

April 10 - Friday

March Treasury Budget (14:00): -$157.0B expected, -$48.2B prior