主题：03/27/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside: Some very good names and patterns if the buyers return.

Play Date: 03/28/2009

BBND (Bigband Networks--$6.38; -0.04; optionable): Telecom/cable video service platforms

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbnd.html

After Hours: $6.51

EARNINGS: 02/12/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. Nice early leader in the market, rallying off its own lows in October and rather ignoring the market overall in its gyrations. It rallied into January and then formed the current 11 week cup base. It broke out just over a week back, surging on strong volume. Last week it tested, coming back to the 10 day EMA (6.25) on lower, below average volume. Nice hold, sitting on top of the early January highs. Looking for a bounce off this support and breakout test that shows us the buyers are back and gives us a nice entry point.

Volume: 158.534K Avg Volume: 322.384K

BUY POINT: $6.56 Volume=485K Target=$7.97 Stop=$6.12

POSITION: QBE FA - June $5c (72 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bbnd.html

Play Date: 03/28/2009

CMI (Cummins--$26.24; -0.69; optionable): Heavy engines

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html

After Hours: $26.24

EARNINGS: 04/30/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. CMI made us a lot of money as it revved its engines in 2007 and the summer of 2008, then the engine froze up and it collapsed. What a collapse, falling from 75 to near 15. It bottomed in November and has moved in a $10 trading range since, rolling in big arcs. Over the past 8 weeks it has set up a solid bullish base. It broke over the 50 day EMA (24.16) last week on strong volume, then worked laterally in a tight range on lower, below to finish the week. That tight range formed the handle consolidation, the shakeout ahead of a breakout. Very nice setup for a new start for CMI.

Volume: 2.257M Avg Volume: 3.957M

BUY POINT: $27.11 Volume=5.2M Target=$31.94 Stop=$25.21

POSITION: CME FE - June $25c (73 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmi.html

Play Date: 03/28/2009

DE (Deere & Co.--$35.07; -0.57; optionable): Farm machinery

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html

After Hours: $34.92

EARNINGS: 05/20/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Deere is another one of the industrial stocks that made everyone great money in 2007 then spent 2008 giving it all back with a massive drop from near 100 into the twenties. Familiar up and down trading range from October to January, then a sharp February decline took it to a new low. Now DE has recovered, and formed a very nice 7 week accumulation pattern. Rallied on strong volume early last week, then moved laterally to end the week, holding right on top of the 90 day SMA (34.82) on lower and lower below average volume. No selling, just holding its gains as it consolidates. May take a few sessions to finish the handle and then we look for the breakout.

Volume: 4.214M Avg Volume: 6.633M

BUY POINT: $36.24 Volume=9M Target=$42.32 Stop=$34.64

POSITION: DE FG - June $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/de.html

Play Date: 03/28/2009

GVA (Granite Construction--$40.92; -1.87; optionable): Construction services

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gva.html

After Hours: $40.92

EARNINGS: 05/04/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Thursday as GVA started the breakout from a very solid 16 week base. Friday it faded with the market, but volume was very low as it tested, giving us what looks to be a great entry point this coming week if GVA can resume the move on some rising trade. Very solid stock. It bottomed in October with a quick double bottom and put in one of the first really solid moves, doubling from October to December. After that surge it has set up this nice base. Excellent.

Volume: 685.352K Avg Volume: 1.171M

BUY POINT: $41.48 Volume=1.4M Target=$49.85 Stop=$39.77

POSITION: GVA FH - June $40c (59 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gva.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/28/2009

CS (Credit Suisse--$29.07; -3.00; optionable): Big bank

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cs.html

After Hours: $29.07

EARNINGS: 04/23/2009

STATUS: Put. CS bounced in its trading range from the November Low into March, then broke out of the range two weeks back, clearing 30 on the move. It could not get away cleanly from that level though it looked as if it would on Monday. It plunked right back down, tried to hold 30, but on Friday it gapped lower, broke 30, and sold off on rising, above average volume. Looks ready to test lower in the range. May try to find some support at 25, but that gives us a 40%ish gain. A move to our target lands a 50%ish gain.

Volume: 2.753M Avg Volume: 2.034M

BUY POINT: $28.78 Volume=2.5M Target=$23.55 Stop=$30.11

POSITION: CS QF - May $30p (-46 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cs.html

Play Date: 03/28/2009

IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$42.89; -1.49; optionable)

After Hours: $43.05

STATUS: Put. Making a lower high below resistance at 44 to 47, turning down Friday though on lower, average volume. The small caps followed the other indices on the move higher, but they never could get into leadership mode and are still lagging the other indices. Looking for a turn back down and a break of the 50 day EMA (42.17) as our entry point for a trade down toward the November closing low at 38.50. A move to our target lands a 48%ish gain.

Volume: 78.136M Avg Volume: 73.514M

BUY POINT: $42.09 Volume=100M Target=$39.05 Stop=$42.91

POSITION: IWM QQ - May $43p (-50 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iwm.html

Play Date: 03/28/2009

PRE (Partnerre Ltd.--$61.30; +0.55; optionable): P & C Insurance

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pre.html

After Hours: $61.30

EARNINGS: 02/02/2009

STATUS: Put. PRE rallied off the low with the rest of the financial and insurance stocks, but it has never put together a really good pattern. It bounced nicely through December and early January but started to sell on volume, tried to consolidate into February, but broke down on high volume again, hitting the lows at 54 in early March. It then made the bounce with the market, and on Monday it broke over the 50 day EMA (62.64). that lasted all of a day. It gapped lower Tuesday, giving up that key level. It continued lower to some support at 60 that bounced it Friday. Looking at an aggressive entry as PRE turns down again then adding as it breaks below 60. Weak pattern and a move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.

Volume: 1.145M Avg Volume: 880.845K

BUY POINT: $60.73 Volume=1.3M Target=$56.55 Stop=$61.42

POSITION: PRE QL - May $60p (-39 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pre.html

Play Date: 03/28/2009

SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$81.61; -1.50; optionable)

After Hours: $82.02

STATUS: Put. Similar to IWM, making a lower high below the late January and Early February twin peaks. No volume on the Friday pullback, and there is support at the 50 day EMA (80) as well as support at that level from the January lows. We are looking at an aggressive buy if the market continues selling, but knowing it could find support at 80. Thus a partial position if you go with the more aggressive buy point, adding to it on a break of 80. Pretty solid gains either way in the 45% to 40% range.

Volume: 322.344M Avg Volume: 367.137M

BUY POINT: $80.86 Volume=465M Target=$77.31 Stop=$81.77

POSITION: SZC PC - Apr. $81p (-39 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spy.html