主题：03/27/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Lots of economic data. Lots. The market is also preparing for earnings season. It has a 20% run under its belt. The quarter is ending. Just your usual start to a week.

Friday was a disappointment as the market did not make another push higher and give us an easy opportunity to take a lot more gain off the table. As noted above, a bit of profit taking and nervousness ahead of the weekend, something similar to the prior two Fridays. They were followed by two good upside Mondays.

If we get another good Monday we will book quite a bit of gain. If the market continues to test then we have the decision of whether to see if we get a bounce after a test of 7500 on the Dow and 800ish on SP500. Oh yes, and 1500 or so on NASDAQ and 235ish on SOX. While the market is showing good upside strength and volume, and while we have banked a lot of gain on the recent upside moves, we are inclined to stick with some tight stops and take the rest of the gain on plays that have it and avoid any serious losses on more recent entries and then see how any test holds up.

We have enjoyed many good moves by many stocks as the indices move into resistance, and with earnings coming on top of everything else we would prefer to bank more gain. We can always get back in if the market rebounds after holding support. Might be the wrong call if earnings turn out better than expected, but with a good run in the bank we would rather not take the gamble, at least not on all positions.

So we enter the week playing it a bit cautious, happy to see another upside Monday again if it will show itself, but either way ready to protect gains and our positions. As for new positions, for the upside we will have to see what kind of test comes off of this most recent tap at resistance or whether it blows on through, making it harder to get in as that involves more chasing the bus toward earnings. We will see what kind of opportunities provide some fast upside in that situation to augment our current positions, i.e. current leaders coming off tests of their moves.

In sum the market is at a potential transition moment thanks to its move thus far, key resistance at hand, quarter end, and earnings season. We have taken gain on the way up and will continue to do so given the opportunity. We will also protect positions from any further downside given you just don't know what the market is going to do after this run to resistance. If things get really dicey, we have some downside positions that we can turn to for some downside gain as well.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1545.20

Resistance:

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

The January closing low at 1653

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day EMA at 1476

The 18 day EMA at 1475

The 50 day SMA at 1463

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 815.94

Resistance:

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 828

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

815 is the early December 2008 low

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day EMA at 798 held on the Wednesday low

The 50 day SMA at 792

The 18 day EMA at 783

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7776.18

Resistance:

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8022

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

The 50 day EMA at 7639

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

The 18 day EMA at 7460

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 31 - Tuesday

March Consumer Confidence (9:00): 27.0 expected, 25.0 prior

S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index, January (9:00): - 18.5% expected, 18.55% prior

Chicago PMI, March (9:45): 34.7 expected, 34.2 prior

April 01 - Wednesday

March ADP Employment Change (8:15): -648K expected, -697K prior

ISM Index, March (10:00): 36.0 expected, 35.8 prior

Construction Spending, February (10:00): -1.6% expected, -3.3% prior

Pending Home Sales, February (10:00): -2.0% expected, -7.7% prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 3/27 (10:00): +3.3M prior

Auto Sales, March (14:00): NA expected, 2.9M prior

Truck Sales, March (14:00): NA expected, 3.5M prior

April 02 - Thursday

3/28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 653K expected, NA prior

Factor Orders, February (10:00): -0.3% expected, -1.9% prior

April 03 - Friday

Nonfarm Payrolls, March (8:30): -656K expected, -651K prior

Unemployment Rate, March (8:30): 8.5% expected, 8.1% prior

March Average Workweek (8:30): 33.3 expected, 33.3 prior

Hourly Earnings, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior

ISM Services, March (10:00): 42.0 expected, 41.6 prior