主题：03/25/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 03/25/2009

DBC (DB Commodity Index ETF--$20.69; -0.32; optionable)

After Hours: $20.52

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice pullback in commodities the past couple of days is forming the handle to its 12 week base. Commodities were one of the leaders in the last rally and now it is retrenching a bit, setting up for a new move. Holding support a the 90 day SMA (20.50) as well as the February peak. Gapped down showing a doji and ready to move in as DBC continues back to the upside.

Volume: 1.586M Avg Volume: 1.208M

BUY POINT: $20.82 Volume=1.8M Target=$23.95 Stop=$20.12

POSITION: DOB GT - July $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dbc.html

Play Date: 03/25/2009

DO (Diamond Offshore--$68.87; -1.38; optionable): Offshore drilling services

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html

After Hours: $68.60

EARNINGS: 02/05/2009

STATUS: Test breakout. DO broke out of the top of its 4 month trading range and has been fighting to hold it the past week. Strong volume on the break higher and lower trade on the lateral move. Nice tap at the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low (66.07) and then a nice recovery to recoup most of the loss. Set up nicely to make the break higher; may take another session or so but we will just give it the time it needs and then pick it up on the breakout.

Volume: 2.411M Avg Volume: 3.57M

BUY POINT: $70.57 Volume=5M Target=$81.95 Stop=$67.48

POSITION: DO FN - June $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html

Play Date: 03/25/2009

SFLY (Shutterfly, Inc.--$8.90; +0.67; optionable): Internet-based photography cite where people can share pictures and the like.

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfly.html

After Hours: $8.81

EARNINGS: 02/04/2009

STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming something of a second handle to its 6 month base. Bottomed from October to February, not making that dive lower as most stocks, then rallied and formed a handle from early February to early March. Broke higher again, but stalled at the February peak and has moved laterally since. Wednesday volume exploded higher as SFLY broke higher and through the 200 day SMA (8.76) for the first time on this move. It closed, however, just below the recent peaks as well as the February peak. Surging money flow. Looks ready to make the break higher.

Volume: 634.53K Avg Volume: 187.152K

BUY POINT: $9.04 Volume=285K Target=$10.48 Stop=$8.41

POSITION: QFY FU - June $7.50c (75 delta, low OI) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sfly.html

New buy point on current position:

Play Date: 03/25/2009

HES (Hess Corp.--$64.35; -0.67; optionable): Oil and gas refining

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hes.html

After Hours: $64.35

EARNINGS: 01/28/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. Nice run the past two weeks took HES, finally, over its January and February peaks. Coming back to test the past two sessions, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low (64.99) and rebounding to recoup most of the loss. Showing a nice doji on the candlestick chart after a short pullback and ready to move in as HES blasts higher off this test and on toward the 200 day SMA (73.90).

Volume: 5.265M Avg Volume: 5.091M

BUY POINT: $65.31 Volume=6.5M Target=$72.95 Stop=$62.77

POSITION: IGG EM - May $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hes.html

Downside: In case the market stalls and turns.

Play Date: 03/25/2009

CAT (Caterpillar--$28.91; -0.49; optionable): Heavy machinery

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html

After Hours: $29.45

EARNINGS: 01/26/2009

STATUS: Put. Just in case. CAT has rallied up to the February bottom that is coincident with the 50 day EMA (30.14). Turned back from that resistance Wednesday on the strongest volume in three weeks and easily above average. If the market breaks lower CAT is in position to lead it lower. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.

Volume: 20.702M Avg Volume: 15.862M

BUY POINT: $27.37 Volume=20M Target=$23.26 Stop=$29.85

POSITION: CXJ QD - May $30p (-48 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cat.html