主题：03/25/2009 Market View -- 宁子

The final Q4 GDP reading is out Thursday followed by weekly jobless claims. Kind of a slow data day comparatively speaking. Old news and not so old news, none of it really leading, however.

What is leading is the market. It is the indicator and right now key indices are trying to put some mileage on key resistance levels broken earlier in the week. Another, SOX, is trying to make a breakout to a new post-November high. The rally off the lows is significant, but it is also getting a bit older. Thus you see more of a struggle, natural at key resistance, but also the bear raid on Wednesday afternoon as the sellers tested the water a bit to see if it was time to dive back in. The buyers swarmed like piranha when they did so they backed off for now.

That may give the indices some breathing room to move higher with this break through resistance, putting SP500 at 875ish to maybe 900, NASDAQ at 1600, and DJ30 at 8000. The interesting thing is that those levels are next serious and visible resistance points and they are 'doable' ahead of quarter end and the window dressing that is helping drive this rally farther into resistance ranges despite the solid move already logged to this point.

A key example of the buyers' desire to buy stocks ahead of quarter end and thus push them on up to that next key level was the Wednesday afternoon sharp and sudden reversal from the selloff to new session lows. Sellers even got SP500 below 800 and buyers still came back in with the wallets and checkbooks open and ready.

Thus we look for some further upside moving toward those resistance levels. After that you are looking at a market that has put in a substantial run off the lows, is at next significant resistance, and a questionable earnings season at hand. Typically a strong run into earnings and you have to be careful.

We will be taking gain on the way higher with existing positions, but a move up to resistance is also good enough to give us an opportunity on new plays as well. We will be looking at new buy points on leaders we already have positions in as they are showing good action and a lot of support. If we see a newcomer, however, we won't turn it away.

At the same time we are also starting to look toward some downside plays. If the market rams into resistance and rolls over we want to be ready to move in on the downside as that move could come rather quickly if the primary impetus behind any rally to the end of March turns out to be end of quarter portfolio sprucing.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1528.95

Resistance:

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

1666 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day EMA at 1469

The 50 day SMA at 1462

The 18 day EMA at 1444

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 813.88

Resistance:

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 830

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day EMA at 795 held on the Wednesday low

The 50 day SMA at 794

The 18 day EMA at 773

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7749.81

Resistance:

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8040

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

The 50 day EMA at 7621

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

The 18 day EMA at 7364

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 23 - Monday

February Existing Home Sales (10:00): 4.72M actual versus 4.45M expected, 4.49M prior

March 25 - Wednesday

February Durable Goods Orders (8:30): 3.4 actual versus -5.2 prior (revised from -7.3)

Durables, Ex-Transportation, February (8:30): 3.9% actual versus -2.0% expected, -5.9% prior (revised from -2.5%)

New Home Sales, February (10:00): 337K actual versus 300K expected, 322K prior (revised from 309K)

Crude Oil Inventories, 3/20 (10:30): +3.3M actual versus +1.942M prior

March 26 - Thursday

03/21 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 650K expected, 647K prior

Q4 GDP - Final, Q4 (8:30): -6.6% expected, -6.2% prior

GDP Price Index, Q4 (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior

March 27 - Friday

February Personal Income (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.4% prior

Personal Spending, February (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior

Michigan Sentiment - Rev, March (9:55): 56.0 expected