主题：03/20/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 03/21/2009

GS (Goldman Sachs--$97.32; -1.98; optionable): Broker dealer

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html

EARNINGS: Earnings date not confirmed. Last announced 3-16-09

STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. GS rallied up to the top of its 4 month uptrending channel on Wednesday, hitting the trendline and fading Thursday and Friday. It tapped the 10 day EMA (95.45) on the Friday low and bounced modestly. Now since GS is near the top of its channel typically you wait for it to come down further. It may do that early this week, perhaps testing the18 day EMA (92.60) where there is some price support as well from the January peak. We will be patient but when GS starts back up on some volume we will be ready to start taking some positions.

Volume: 29.14M Avg Volume: 25M

BUY POINT: $98.08 Volume=34M Target=$117.55 Stop=$94.87

POSITION: GS ES - May $95c (69 delta) or GE GT - July $100c (47 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gs.html

Play Date: 03/21/2009

MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems--$15.30; -0.76; optionable): Semiconductors

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mpwr.html

EARNINGS: 02/12/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. After bottoming in early December and rebounding initially off a small double bottom, MPWR fell into an 11 week trading range between 11 and 14. The range was often narrower than that, making it hard to play the movement within the range. It finally broke out, however, two weeks back with a good volume burst. Nice rally up close to the 200 day SMA (16.90) Wednesday before fading Thursday and Friday on a very nice drop in volume, showing just a normal profit taking move. Looking for MPWR to hold the 10 day EMA (14.98) and then provide a new bounce higher that we can buy into.

Volume: 417.1K Avg Volume: 585K

BUY POINT: $15.68 Volume=800K Target=$18.74 Stop=$14.68

POSITION: QPU FC - June $15c (61 delta, 64 OI) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mpwr.html

Play Date: 03/21/2009

WFC (Wells Fargo--$13.99; -1.43; optionable): Big bank

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfc.html

EARNINGS: 01/28/2009

STATUS: Trend reversal. WFC held up pretty well through the end of 2008 but then tumbled January and February, on into early March. It was one of the 'chosen,' but that did not protect it once the markets saw what the new Administration was like and its bank plan, or rather, lack of one. After that drop it bounced with the market, surging Wednesday on strong volume post-FOMC. It came back Thursday and Friday, holding the January closing low. Has formed something of a reverse head and shoulders if you look at a close line chart and something of a double bottom on an intraday. Either way it broke the downtrend and is now testing its breakout. If it holds here and bounces, we move in. If it doesn't we see where it tests and don't want that to be too much lower. Showing relative strength so expecting it to test a bit more Monday but then hold and turn back up.

Volume: 167.337M Avg Volume: 150M

BUY POINT: $14.54 Volume=200M Target=$18.32 Stop=$13.52

POSITION: WFC GP - July $14c (51 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfc.html

New Buy Points on Current Leader Positions:

Play Date: 03/21/2009

BR (Broadridge Financial Solutions--$17.78; -0.31; optionable): Outsourcing solutions to the financial industry.

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/br.html

After Hours: $17.78

EARNINGS: 02/03/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. Nice pullback on below average volume Thursday and Friday, tapping at the 10 day EMA (17.48). This is BR's first test after breaking through the 200 day SMA (16.10) two weeks back as it continued its breakout run after a three week consolidation under the 200 day. Very strong money flow is still ready to drag BR even higher. May come back and fully test the 10 day EMA, may even dip a bit below that but not much given the February consolidation. When it holds and bounces that is when we move in with new buys.

Volume: 1.489M Avg Volume: 1.474M

BUY POINT: $18.11 Volume=2M Target=$20.65 Stop=$17.22

POSITION: BR FW - June $17.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/br.html

Play Date: 03/21/2009

GLW (Corning--$12.43; -0.51; optionable): LCD panels, other glass products

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glw.html

After Hours: $12.45

EARNINGS: 01/27/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. GLW broke out from a 6 week cup with handle base last week and rallied, giving us a chance to take some nice gain on Thursday as it gapped higher. Friday it tested, coming back toward support at 12, the February closing peak (and the 10 day EMA at 11.88). Looking for GLE to make this test and then start back up. That is when we add positions. An early leader reloading and giving us another opportunity to move in.

Volume: 28.98M Avg Volume: 16.867M

BUY POINT: $12.32 Volume=25M Target=$14.45 Stop=$11.77

POSITION: GLW HB - Aug. $10c (75 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/glw.html

Play Date: 03/21/2009

ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$71.65; -2.30; optionable): Energy exchange

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html

After Hours: $71.65

EARNINGS: 05/05/2009

STATUS: Test breakout. ICE made us some excellent money last week as it broke higher out of its 10 week double bottom pattern. It surged up to the 200 day SMA (80) and reversed, closing lower Thursday and fading further Friday on low, below average volume. Looking for ICE to test some more, coming back to near 70. Then we look for ICE to bounce and when it does we will move in with new positions.

Volume: 1.818M Avg Volume: 2.462M

BUY POINT: $70.54 Volume=3M Target=$83.95 Stop=$68.69

POSITION: ICE FN - June $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ice.html

Play Date: 03/21/2009

NTES (Netease.com--$22.30; -0.51; optionable): Chinese online gaming, erotica

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html

After Hours: $22.37

EARNINGS: 02/25/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. You know I always thought Netease was a company that made using the net or those providing services over the net an easier process: net ease. Oh well, wrong again. Whatever. NTES is now teasing us again, coming back to test the breakout, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Friday low (22.10). That also puts it near the January price peak, a good point to bounce. Strong volume on the run higher last week, lower and below average volume on the late week pullback. Nice test to set up a new break higher. Ready to move in as it bounces. Very nice set up.

Volume: 1.121M Avg Volume: 1.139M

BUY POINT: $22.84 Volume=1.5M Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.97

POSITION: NQG FX - June $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ntes.html

Play Date: 03/21/2009

QCOM (Qualcom--$37.06; -0.58; optionable): Telecom system licensing

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html

After Hours: $37.05

EARNINGS: 01/28/2009

STATUS: Breakout test. QCOM broke higher out of a slightly descending 12 week trading range a week and a half back. Showed some good volume as it made the initial break and followed up with more midweek (the Fed, of course). It came back Thursday and Friday, tapping the 10 day EMA (36.47) on the low and rebounding some. Nice breakout, solid test, and ready to move in as QCOM makes a bounce after completing the test. Nice.

Volume: 27.931M Avg Volume: 21.688M

BUY POINT: $37.55 Volume=30M Target=$42.48 Stop=$36.35

POSITION: AAO GU - July $37.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qcom.html