主题：03/20/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Heavy week of economic data ahead along with the earnings warning season. Already saw warnings popping up last week and more will show up this week as companies need to set the expectations now that the later numbers in the quarter are coming in and quiet periods are approaching. Then there is the Vaudeville act of Congress to keep things interesting and somewhat frightening.

Even with all of this intrigue and the rather bad prognostications about the ability of all the trillions to fix the problem as the federal branches are working at odds with each other the market thus far still looks good with an orderly pullback after the rally and follow through. Of course these pullbacks can always become less orderly and less good looking as they get their heart into it. We will just have to see how rambunctious the sellers get and whether they are back to all in or just testing the waters along with the profit takers after a 2-week run.

We are going to look at positions to ride back up after a test of the SP500 November low or thereabouts. As noted above, there are many solid leaders in very nice tests that we want some more of as they start back up. We have also protected positions on the way down and will continue to do so though most should hold near support if they are going to resume the rally.

If the indices do not hold and sell on sharp volume we will simply let the downside positions run as we close the rest of the upside. The market is acting as if it wants to put in a bottom, but the credit picture, despite improvements in LIBOR all week (the 3-month closed at 1.22% Friday after starting the week at 1.32%) remains bleak given Congress' new politburo style of governing. The trillions put into the Fed and Treasury facilities cannot work without participation, and Congress is going to have to repent or no company is going to willingly participate. Again, we suppose Congress could just pass a law requiring participation. That would right in line with its new direction.

Once more government action has worked to add uncertainty to the financial markets as well as all other markets such as housing, healthcare, etc. Thus there is an additional layer of risk to the market, but so far the market is acting as if the feds didn't do anything unusual with this rally up to resistance and rather normal pullback to test. As always we will take what the market gives us and for now that means picking up some bucks on the current test, and if it holds at logical support, move in to the upside again as the leaders rebound.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1457.27

Resistance:

The 50 day SMA at 1464

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low. Cracking but not broken

The 90 day SMA at 1491

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

1666 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The 50 day EMA at 1461 is trying to hold.

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

The 18 day EMA at 1421

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 768.54

Resistance:

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day SMA is at 798 tapped on the Wednesday high and again Thursday.

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 832

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

768 is the 2002 bear market low

The 18 day EMA at 750

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7278.38

Resistance:

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

The 50 day EMA at 7607

7694 is the February intraday low

7702 is the July 2002 low

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8070

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

The 18 day EMA at 7220

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 23 - Monday

February Existing Home Sales (10:00): 4.45M expected, 4.49M prior

March 25 - Wednesday

February Durable Goods Orders (8:30): -2.0% expected, -5.2% prior

Durables, Ex-Transportation, February (8:30): -2.0% expected, -2.5% prior

New Home Sales, February (10:00): 300K expected, 309K prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 3/20 (10:30): +1.942M prior

March 26 - Thursday

03/21 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 650K expected, 647K prior

Q4 GDP - Final, Q4 (8:30): -6.6% expected, -6.2% prior

GDP Price Index, Q4 (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior

March 27 - Friday

February Personal Income (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.4% prior

Personal Spending, February (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior

Michigan Sentiment - Rev, March (9:55): 56.0 expected