主题：【原创】茗谈（95）：织锦 -- 本嘉明

回去基本上有一小半是空的...

1. The real estate bubble drains investment and consumption power.

2. The banking system was overstretched and exposed to one single biggest industry, real estate (which is deeply involved in all kinds of speculation).

REAL ECONOMY WAS SHRINKING AND CREDIT-SUPPORTED speculative economic activities are still booming.

I have never seen one industrialized nation that won global status/respect through ever increasing housing price.

China could be the first exception, haha. But remember before that, there are Japan in 1980s, US and Ireland before 2007. They all believe in the same way...

I want to remind domestic Chinese the nonperforming loan problem in China's banking system.

Below is the non-performing loan ratio history (according to the general practice, non-performing or non-accrual loans are defined as loans that have been delinquent on interesting or principal payment for more than 90 days) in China’s banking system. Original data come from various issues of World Bank publications.

2001: 29.4%

2007: 6.2%

2008: 2.4%

2011: 1.1%

The 2007 (6.2%) ratio was still very high compared with most industrialized nations. Therefore there was nothing to be proud of. The U.S. banking system had bad debt problem since housing collapse, its peak level is in 2009 (5.4%).

China's nonperforming loan ratio declined because of one major reason: there was A PERIOD OF CRAZY CREDIT EXPANSION since late 2008, pressured by premier Wen. Newly extended loans have diluted the bad debt problem.

Those new loans lent out in the crazy years of 2009-2011 will come home to haunt Chinese banks and China's economy very soon. Currently, people are just using all kinds of dirty tricks (e.g., shadow bank lending) to cover up their problems.

Could you show us which time is key point? And what way is good for person?

章家敦同志喊了20年，然后是“敌人一天天坏下去，我们一天天好起来”，所以这次也会一样？

以救经济之名行刺激之实，资产泡沫进一步膨胀，经历的、见证的就是通胀政策进行时。

predicted based on certain assumptions. It is true that a country with 30-40% non-performing loan ratio in 1990s will find it difficult to maintain the system. But those assumptions do not play out in 1990s.

Last time, America served as the savior: it opened its domestic market to let in China's import, it also started a dot.com revolution so that excess capital find places to invest--rather than wasting on unproductive real estate speculation. European market also serves as a healthy outlet for China's exports.

China was rescued last round by a very open external market and its PRIVATE export sector, NOT the 管办经济。

It no longer has such a luck this time. Its 2011 non-performing loan ratio has reached historical lowest point in its own history, it is even lower than in some of the best countries on the earth, such as Switzerland and Canada in 2011. I want to point out the 2007 level was around 7%--that's more normal for China given its inefficient state sector.

China's economy is so large now: it is more costly and DIFFICULT than in the past for gov.-managed stimulation or manipulation.

China's export sector is dying, real estate speculation being hovering in the sky. There was lots of waste of infrastructure investment between 2009-2012. All will come back and show its impact in the banking sector.

let's wait and see. I think it will take 3 years before China's gov. even admits this souring banking problem in its own media.

Before that, we were like America in early 2006.

YOU MENTIONED INFLATION IS THE BEST CURE. AGREE. FED UNDER BEN IS DOING THE SAME THING NOW. But what you prefer is a CONTROLLABLE mild inflation over 10 years. It is not easy to control inflation in China: it is either too high or too low. PBOC needs to be a good student of Fed for a few more decades.

1. 2013 is Germany's election year. Europe will be popped up.

2. 2013-2014 there will be China's leadership transition. People will maintain the growth or at least fake the growth data.

Bad infrastructure loans will take some time to manifest itself. In early 1990s, China's banking system covered up its problem for many years and data were only disclosed in 1998 or 1999. But the real estate speculation/price peaked in 1995 in China.

这样搞科技创新就别指望了。

楼市崩盘还会多一堆水泥垃圾，比如海南和现在的鄂尔多斯。

它出来的时候google就被暂时和谐了。

简单来说，浪费的越多，事后受到的教训越大记得越深。相对的，得到的利益越多，越贪婪和肆无忌惮。

极端的表现是战争。人们用眼前利益和虚无缥缈的大战略来发起战争，等到浪费的财物和人命差不多够了就以谈判和投降来结束战争，然后从中得到教训持续几十年的和平。

十几年前海南就有过类似的崩盘了。

I think this time China will be rescued by the fall of Japan and the internationalization of RMB. It will lead to the upgrade of tech and cheaper energy cost.

我朝治国方略精髓乃是利出一孔。人有了钱肯定都想要自由，自立山头，染指政治。故必须利诱收买打压。不服者尽数出局。奈何？

小资们最缺的就是这个

能生存，但遇到发展瓶颈了，不容易做大。加上其他因素，就出国了。

现在回想，创业第一条，就是蛮勇，没有这个“一”，后面啥都不会有。今天我的能力肯定比当年要高一些，但蛮勇就不一定还有剩了，顾家嘛。

刀头舔过血，其实蛮有快感的，年轻人应该尽可能品尝一哈，哪怕是开个小店呢。

人一般现实条件越好，创业的勇气越差。机会成本摆着呢。中国应该大力宣扬资本主义精神，把个体都踢到社会上自己去练，告诉他们国家管不了你，你自己照顾自己吧。这么干貌似残酷，但对社会发展进步肯定是很有好处。