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主题：两难的道路越来越狭窄 -- zhuhit
家园 上头怎么可能这时候让银行放松？ 今年上半年没严卡货币供应，下半年开始发力，七、八月份都很紧张，据说8月末国债（7天？）回购（年）利率高达47%，按总理在达沃斯表态接下来还不好过，“池子里货币已经很多了，我们不可能再依靠增发货币来刺激经济增长。”按照对商业银行的新规定——《三部委联合发文约束商业银行存款冲时点行为》外链出处不向新中央彻底服软，把通过地产金融侵吞的大头吐出来，哪个豪强也难过这个年
家园 应该再来个40万亿 1. 疯狂的扩容风电，水电，核电，太阳能，潮汐电。
2. 改造电网以适应新能源。
3. 强制全社会大搞电动车。
4. 改造农村，建立低能耗可持续的农业。
5. 大规模扩容煤炭，石油，粮食的战略储备。
都是实打实的需求呀。
家园 这个可能性基本为零 主要是印钞机负荷已经达到极限，印钞厂厂长周小川同志已经不能印了--或者说印钞厂的纸张本身供应就出现来源问题。
中国M2目前是120万亿左右，离极限150万亿只有30万亿，不可能再有40万亿了。
央行昨天抛出5000亿基础货币给5大行救急，估计货币乘数系数是6，那么相当于3万亿M2，比较120万亿M2存量，连嵌牙缝都不够。
你的招数：
1. 疯狂的扩容风电，水电，核电，太阳能，潮汐电。2. 改造电网以适应新能源。
3. 强制全社会大搞电动车。
4. 改造农村，建立低能耗可持续的农业。
5. 大规模扩容煤炭，石油，粮食的战略储备。
1. 中国的风电可开采蕴藏量2亿瓩，水电是4.5亿瓩，两者都开发过半了，没有什么油水了；核电的燃料靠进口，设备靠进口，选址有地质风险；中国太阳能多晶硅年产能才8万吨，离我要求的年产100万吨相去甚远；潮汐能就算了吧。
2. 中国的电网规范到现在还没有搞定，一帮混蛋搞了超高压交流输电工程，白白花了天朝1000亿两银子，还搅乱了电网稳定性。
3. 蓄电池电动车是死路一条，美国人来华大肆兜售蓄电池电动车，而自己和日本合伙悄悄开发燃料电池电动车。
4. 没有建立完善的水利灌溉体系，靠天吃饭的中国农业不可能持续下去。
5. 中国煤炭生产已经达到瓶颈，煤炭进口量是10%的煤炭国产量，石油自给率已经低于50%，粮食自给率低于70%。要建立战略储备，就要买光全球产能，这几乎不可能。
比如2013年中国购买3亿吨进口煤炭，已经占全球煤炭出口量的90%；
全世界猪肉出口680万吨，中国进口80万吨。如果中国每年消费的5800万吨猪肉的10%依赖进口，就要把全世界的猪肉出口基本消耗干净。
中国人均装机1瓩不到，如果达到2瓩人均装机，就要烧煤炭50亿吨；目前中国人吃猪肉不过40公斤/年，一天不过2两猪肉，要达到一天吃3两猪肉，全年就要增加3000万吨猪肉。
这些肉从哪里来啊？如果中国大规模储备猪肉，是不是嫌穆斯林同志还不够多？
- 违规禁，【补充】可申诉或道歉来解。偏要看
家园 Bell curve or Seneca cliff 
外链图片需谨慎，可能会被源头改过去的model都是基于exponential growth。但是这些都要崩溃，人口会崩溃，经济会崩溃，经济理论会崩溃，货币单位会崩溃，坐标和结构都要崩溃。
An example featuring mammals is provided by the reindeer of St. Matthew Island, in the Bering Sea (Klein, 1968). This island had a mat of lichens more than four inches deep, but no reindeer until 1944, when a herd of 29 was introduced. By 1957 the population had increased to 1,350; and by 1963 it was 6,000. But the lichens were gone, and the next winter the herd died off. Come spring, only 41 females and one apparently dysfunctional male were left alive .
外链图片需谨慎，可能会被源头改Seneca cliff，崩溃的速度比积累快。
外链图片需谨慎，可能会被源头改怎么办？model要变，应该换坐标，换度量结构。从美元变成能源，根据Energy returned on energy invested，根据Hubbert model，构建能量预算体系。这是中国的机会。
未来的能源终将到顶。
外链图片需谨慎，可能会被源头改根据能量预算行事的国家，即使不能避免衰落的命运，至少可以选择走bell curve，而不是Seneca cliff。运气好，可以获得新的平衡。但是这一切要以牺牲其他低熵体为代价的。
家园 四中全會强渡长江: 用孩子喂狼, 资本(信息)市场开放 about the way I have been posting:
1) if you can't model tgchina, you can't model the global capital market.
2) "white" never really understands china, how do you say in English: 四中全會, 强渡长江: 用孩子喂狼, 资本(信息)市场对外开放, 带动产业升级 ?
3) in a way, and in some areas, 马克思主义毛粉丝 such as "陈王奋起挥黄钺", "hullo" (not personally commenting ) understands white more than white themselves, and they have written many very outstanding posts.
but fundamentally 马克思主义毛主义是宗教, 不是制度/system, period.
and it looks like, 中共高层, or some of it, "get it", to some extent: 走出爱因斯坦电梯 of 马克思主义毛主义, in a very twisted 测地线 "china model".
with that, 保持毛林共识政治体制下， 中共高层 "用孩子喂狼, 资本信息市场开放, 强渡长江", to further normalize china with Uncle Sam managed global heatbath, 带动产业升级, 与美国为首的世界资本主义继续接轨
4) Chinese as an information processing language is fundamentally slow, although personally I have to read bilingually, even in physics, most of the time, but I have to type in English, a lot of faster.
5) mostly my posts are some kind of notes, more of "outline", with its logic of more of social physics, hard to read and understand, for almost anybody, and when I read some of my past posts myself, I sometimes have problems too.
now, let's get to business.
Part I
basic logic
1.
white's 理想模型 (kind of 原教旨资本主义, in terms of economics, with my physics modifications)
社会经济系统=耗散系统, 革新， 增长， 不惜一切代价,and as such, 分配, 劳动人民福利=次要目标;
劳动力, 土地, 能源, 资本, 信息: 稀缺性重要性依次递增, 反过来依次递减;
global capital market=fundamentally 信息处理系统
社会政治法律系统: white's 普世体制, 配合资本市场/信息处理系统;
2.
global capital market as a 信息处理系统
新的信息是私有的， 局域的, and capital market emerges, develops and grows with 私人资本(信息)套利 mechanism: those market participants (whose 信息是私有的， 局域的) come to market to 套利, because individual market participants all think that they own some unique 信息 (or their understanding of public 信息) in their business area, vs other private market participants.
and in the process of private and individual market participants' 资本市场套利交易, they produce information for themselves and others, and most importantly for the system as a whole;
without constant and dynamic information feed (or "energy" feed) produced by global capital market 24/7, 社会经济系统 as a 耗散系统 would fall apart, 革新， 增长 is totally impossible.
反证: 如果 all 信息从来是"公有"的, easy for market to price in or for central planners to model "产业升级" etc, then 社会经济系统 would not be a 耗散系统 anymore, it would be "completely" near and/or at equilibrium state, then 社会经济系统 will face the risk of maximization of entropy, 失去信息动量梯度, "热寂". 人类社会经济系统进步停止.
this is why in a post industrial capitalist economy, TG's "central planning" model is facing a fundamental problem: 信息和信息处理机制 (basically a real and internationally-open capital market) 缺失 for Chinese society, at least economically. 产业升级无从谈起.
3.
obviously, when those dynamically produced 新的信息(私有的， 局域的)充分反映 or priced in the capital market (EMH model)， it also helps 融资 to work out as another important function of global capital market.
by the way, as 陈王奋起挥黄钺 posted, a big chunk of global capital market is consisted of 劳动人民's mutual fund, pension, etc, 所谓人民资本主义.
vs. TGchina's 人民房地产地道战, 共军辽沈战役.
Part II
it looks like 中共高层, or some of it understands this "model" of global capital market fairly well, to some extent
共军辽沈战役 (past 30 years of tgchina):
did very well in terms of "劳动力, 土地, 能源" 资本主义化 with huge scales, in mainland china, much better than those other Asian countries of "TPP"
四中全會, 强渡长江: 用孩子喂狼, 资本(信息)市场对外开放, 带动产业升级
I have posted quite bit on that, and it looks 上证指数 is thinking that way as well.
politically, ideologically, 当然是
打左灯, 向右拐;
that is why I keep saying the social science in mainland china=BS of BS, and have your children started on physics and English yesterday.
Part III
四中全會, 强渡长江: 用孩子喂狼, 资本(信息)市场对外开放, 带动产业升级:
胜算很大
why? as I posed before, tgchina has an unique and super powerful "度量结构"凝聚力, vs other TPP Asian countries of basically 脑残, and Europe of basically 脑废 (极端民粹主义, as "hullo" posted), and japan 脑老;
with all that, more likely, china will continue to be a growth driver of global economy, only second to US.
potential game changers or road blocks:
HK: I think chairman X mishandled Hong Kong a little bit, 忘记共军忽悠战术了, but HK is not a big deal;
US/TPP may not be a big deal either, and I don't know much about it.
that is why I keep saying that Uncle Sam will likely come into a deal with 共军 when Hillary comes to the office, most likely.
all good?:)
-------------
appendix
1. about peak oil------
peak oil is more likely a "fake" model
http://www.lapsedphysicist.org/2014/08/12/looking-ahead-30-40-years-a-risky-business/
the challenge facing today's global capitalism is information challenge, making worse by all kinds of social sciences "BS" all over the world.
2.
some mathematical physics of "度量结构", in terms of GR.
"changshou did a great service with his following piece, without referencing complicated concepts such as "集合".
a 度量流形 is basically: locally 开集同胚, regionally/globally 微分同胚;
and with "时空是（某一类）度量流形", we have 一张全息屏,
and everybody is basically naked, as seen in that 全息屏"
时空对应在一张全息屏, "时空是（某一类）度量流形" [ 晓兵 ]
3.
信息处理最终是要回到热力学层次 (macroscopic or mesoscopic) 的, and human brain has a fundamental problem of 脑热, or "退相干和噪声源", indiviudally.
个体个人 helps 产生信息 locally， however, 信息处理 is more of 全局的, 市场的.
witten1
"分子被束缚在一蛋白质“脚手架”上，这“脚手架”即是退相干和噪声源同时可能又保护了在复合体中的相干激发并且在提升能量传输效率方面扮演了重要的角色（自然界真是天才，一个看上去明显有损效率的东西，可是同时却又在提升效率，这有点像bootstrap）。"
【原创】量子生物学II - 西西河
www.cchere.com/article/3830428
Dec 31, 2012 - 光合作用给地球上几乎所有的生命提供了能量。 ... 这些分子被束缚在一蛋白质“脚手架”上，这“脚手架”即是退相干和噪声源同时可能又保护了在复合
4.
"熵力的基本假设是全息原理和等效原理"
Erik Verlinder 时空可以对应在一张全息屏上 晓兵 字9076 2014-09-17 14:48:33
http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3965802
5.
"changshou"'s GR piece, "几何直观地介绍广义相对论的时空以及大爆炸模型", is just outstanding, I will do some post about the 2nd part of his piece, "时空分解与演化", there are very few physicists in mainland who can come to "changshou" level.
and in terms of 量子生物学, few can match "witten1".
china has long way to go in term of "ALGO" power.
partially because of that,
"中共毛泽东物理世界观尽头? 美军重返亚太, 兵临城下" [ 晓兵 ]
6.
全球资本信息市场: "群体大脑" model, 规范场
鸿乾
"现在的计算机中，你存一个图像就是一个图像，你取出来，还是那个图像，非常精确，如果有所误差，你就根本取不出来。而且这个图像的记忆和对这个图像的理解一点关系都没有，记忆是记忆，理解是理解，记忆是存储体中的，理解是存储外面的软件的运行的结果。因此，这个计算技术体系中，不可能产生类别和联系，即使有，也不是自然产生的，而是外部刻意追求而加进去的。扩大了讲，就是说，基本上没有可能产生智能"
"如果有所误差，你就根本取不出来": not a road block in terms of 产生智能:
其实"误差"是局域的, and gauge theory规范场's 局域相位变换 can be a model to handle that kind of challenge, in theory, in practice, we have computing power and other issues.
financial market as 规范场, a Russian physicist has written a book on that, with Chinese translation, and I have not read it yet.
what is the point?
全球信息资本主义方兴未艾!
四中全會, 强渡长江: 用孩子喂狼, 资本信息市场开放,带动产业升级, just do it, baby, how bloody it may be.
7.
http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3808130
O 我的理解是这样的：类比和联想其实是神经系统自然的动作 花1 鸿乾 字1535 2014-04-01 11:26:10
．．．．O "类比和联想的神经基础", & "量子力学的心脏” 晓兵 字10753 2014-04-03 16:07:40
．．．．O 嗯，这个要好好想一想 原手 字434 2014-04-01 12:03:27
．．．．．O 量子 computer can do "类比和联想" 花2 晓兵 字15262 2014-04-01 12:41:03
．．．．．．O 向你推荐这本书 原手 字117 2014-04-01 23:54:30
．．．．．．．O 自然语言: 熱輻射, 腦殘 risk 晓兵 字10281 2014-04-02 11:35:12
．．．．．．O 熊起:人脑没有内外态区别,存储是树状增量并行,非线性寻址 晓兵 字3415 2014-04-01 23:17:20
．．．．．．．O 熊起做了很好的评论。但是谁是熊起？ 鸿乾 字362 2014-04-02 14:21:29
．．．．．．．．O 黑猩猩记得是因为working memory比人的发达 原手 字43 2014-04-02 19:38:15
．．．．．．．．．O 布洛赫波 to make 人 into 黑猩猩(:) 晓兵 字3644 2014-04-02 23:52:25
．．．．．．．．O "人只能记忆理解了的东西，没有纯的存储" 晓兵 字6145 2014-04-02 19:16:30
．．．．．．．．O 熊起:图灵机拥有内态，纸带上的输入信息可以影响内态 花1 晓兵
家园 共军"强渡长江"的风险:毛林共识成本高涨， 美军亚太围堵 1.
共军没有退路, "强渡长江"=a must, 辽沈战役打不下去了.
2.
共军"外战外行, 内战内行", HK mess is just an another case;
共军"外战外行": 忽悠(headfakes)战， 实战， 基本上分不清,百战百败, period.
but 共军 always survives, one of reasons=共军"内战内行".
and I think 共军 top knows that, that is why all these Chinese media's 国际战略， 蓝天大海 model=BS.
3.
the ALGO of 共军"内战内行" is "毛林共识模型", likely still working inside mainland china, but it is facing a 成本高涨 issue now, HK mess is going to make it worse.
中共国内政治出问题， 可能性很小, but never say never.
Chairman X has been in charge of TG's HK affairs since 2007, HK is his baby, now it is becoming a little wolf, sneaking into Chairman Xs' otherwise beautiful and powerful office.
how he is going to get this little wolf under control?
4.
美军亚太围堵 tgchina
at this point, Uncle Sam is very blunt to Russian and tgchina: it is not about 普世制度 vs Marxism any more, it is all about Uncle Sam as a sole market maker of today's global capitalism.
if you guys want to play "my" game, then I am the boss, period. and in front of my "office",
you guys have to give up your military power, period.
of course, whether Uncle Sam can make it is an another issue.
in tgchina's case: Mao fxxked uncle sam pretty badly in Korea and Vietnam, and TG had "stolen" a lot of money from Unlce Sam post 911 crisis.
from Uncle Sam's point of view: Uncle TG has to pay back Uncle Sam somehow, or it is hard to do business again between the two.
the way chairman X handles HK: he is kind of weak, just like his red gen II buddies, and just like their fathers, in terms of ALGO power, and TG represents the political elite (the only social elite) of Chinese nation, a nation with very little ALGO power, if any, due to its lack of physics and math, and its lack of interacting with global heatbath in china's 5k years of history.
a basically 近亲繁殖 issue， 缺乏和外界信息能量交换, and still feeling great although trapped inside 爱因斯坦电梯, now with that 爱因斯坦电梯 remodeled by 马克思主义毛主义 and 改革开放's huge dollar piling up.
in that sense, 共军没有退路, "强渡长江", TG has to make it, for Chinese nation to move forward.
I think, that more than likely, and after all said and done, 共军 will make it.
家园 张天蓉: best 数理科普 blog, 中文 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&uid=677221
1.
all "social science" ALGOs running all kinds of programs/codes all over the places are mostly derived from physics.
physics is getting out of physics.
2.
I have read quite a few of 张天蓉 系列科普目录,
其它科普目录, one of the best
张天蓉
教育情况：
University of Texas Austin，其它，博士
研究领域：
数理科学->物理学II->基础物理学
家园 这还没算你说的solar minimum 其实中国的运气算是很好了。
1.福岛那么一闹，不仅日本把核电站关了，德国居然也把核电站关了。中国应该趁机会把能买的核燃料都买了，屯家里。
2.石油的机会也不错。欧洲自杀，美国自给自足，俄罗斯有油不好卖。中国应该至少可以从俄罗斯弄些储备。
3.交通方面，电动车太奢侈，中国城市密集，可以大力发展电摩托。大飞机可以不用搞了，今后出门就靠高铁。然后就是发展网购。货车配送，比自己开车去超市节能多了。
4.太阳能要在off grid方面下工夫。比如太阳能热水器。另外还可以用太阳能leverage(1:5)地热资源。中国实在应该把所有的房子都搞成地热取暖。2025年以后煤不够用了，至少家里还在冰点以上。
然后就是熬了，熬到四代堆商用。
家园 核燃料是非卖品 1.福岛那么一闹，不仅日本把核电站关了，德国居然也把核电站关了。中国应该趁机会把能买的核燃料都买了，屯家里。对中国需求的浓缩铀燃料，西方自始至终没有松过口，只有有限供应。西方人主要还是怕中国用于核潜艇核航母的核反应堆燃料。德日的核燃料也是外国供应的（德国从法国进口，日本从美加进口，中国也是从法国加拿大进口）。
中国人连浓缩铀燃料都做不好，没有资源也是一个问题。
中国核电规划不过是4000万瓩，相比最近几年中国电力装机每年1亿瓩相比，简直是小儿科。
中国人口14亿，人均1瓩装机需要14亿瓩，目前刚刚接近10亿装机，规划的0.4亿瓩核电根本没有规模经济意义。（美国核电厂装机1亿瓩，总装机11多亿瓩）。
发展核电对大国来说是减轻摊低核潜艇核航母燃料成本，对于中国来讲也是这个意义。西方人不会傻到大规模卖核燃料给中国人。
德国的光伏发电按照目前的速度发展下去，不仅仅可以关闭核电厂，连毛子的天然气都可以说拜拜了。
家园 今后7年包子小强还是自求多福了，别做发财的梦了 把粮食生产做好就是托大福了。
今年中国8月用电量增幅是负值，据认为元凶是8月份平均气温下降1.5摄氏度---可见红太阳公公发威了。
我不相信这点气温会给空调机带来这么大的影响，明明是工业用电大幅下降。
东北大面积秋粮绝收不是一个好苗头。
家园 反腐就是均贫富 历代帝王都是这么干的，但是谁也逃不过周期律。可怜这都21世纪了，要观测有观测，要数据有数据，到头来可能还是死的不明不白的。
要我说，当务之急是把雅鲁藏布江的水引到西疆，搞出一大片新的耕地。这样东北内蒙冷的不行了，华北旱的不行了，还有个托底的。不过那样一来，西郭先生的200亿美元估计就水漂了，中印搞不好还要大打一次。