主题：为什么说美元贬值是赖帐？ -- hwd99
家园 天时啊，人类社会转型的机会比什么科技进步都大 农业-〉工业
社会化大生产-〉社会化大消费
工业-〉社会化大服务
中国掏耳朵眼的手艺都有了用武之地，不是天意是什么？
不要低估未来，美国在传统工业领域正遭受前所未有的智力挑战，从航母（怕潜艇），卫星（怕导弹）到汽车（柴油发动机技术的淘汰），石化（新能源），制药（低价山寨），金融（低利社会），甚至科技（互联网让知识的急速扩散），这些都是颠覆性的。
俺在美国，虽然美国人在极力试图甩掉包袱，试图腾挪，但俺仍深深感受到美国“新”老工业的沉重....，现在的问题是中国是不是会犯错误，迄今为止还没有。
家园 先有蛋还是先有鸡,这是个问题. 靠牺牲社会公众维持血汗工厂，还是靠孱弱的海军去维护我们的海上航线（中国的进出口80%以上来自海上）中国的海军力量只所以孱弱,以现在的情况来看,是不为也,非不能也(当然现在已经是大跃进了).至于以前之所以不为,据说是害怕别人说中国威胁论.结果现实是反而因此被别人威胁.所以我是坚定的中国要发展大型航母的支持者.
家园 不要信口开河，美国自1983年来通货膨胀率没有达到过5% “美国30年前曾大幅度贬值美元。通货膨胀年最高达到15％”，“美国每年贬美元5－10％是一直在做的事情”，你有什么证据？
我来告诉大家一个找到美国官方数据的办法：在美国统计局的网站http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#header上，点
Percent change from preceding period，下载一个excel文件，其中包括从1929年以来各年名义GDP的变化率和实际GDP的变化率，前者减去后者就等于物价变动的幅度，即通货膨胀率。你会看到，通胀率最高的是1947年的10.7%，最低的是1932年的-10.2%。没有任何一年达到过15%。1970年代中至1980年代初，有过一段高通胀期，一直在6%以上。当时美国人就受不了了，通胀成了最严重的社会问题，然后Volcker上台作美联储主席，强力提高利率压下了通胀。从1983年开始，直到2008年，通胀率再没有达到5%，最高4.2%，最低1.1%。
你能不能改改这个不重视数据、随口乱说的习惯？
家园 数据来源附后 最高14.76%，参见：
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx?dsInflation_currentPage=2
The following table provides all the Inflation data from 1914 to the Present. For the current inflation rate data just since the year 2000, see Inflation page. The Inflation rate is calculated from the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) which is compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is based upon a 1982 Base of 100. To view the actual Consumer Price Index data that this inflation data is calculated from, go to the Historical CPI table.
A CPI of 195 indicates 95% inflation since 1982, the commonly quoted inflation rate of say 3% is actually the change in the Consumer Price Index from a year earlier. To find Prior Inflation rate data on this table (back through 1914) click on the date range below the table.
The "Ave" on this table is the Average of the individual Inflation rates for that year. Caution, you can not just add the inflation rates from two consecutive years or even average them to find the total inflation between two dates. If you would like to calculate the inflation rate between two dates you must base your calculations on the actual CPI index or you can use our handy easy to use Inflation calculator or you might prefer to use our Cost of Living Calculator to compare the costs in two cities.
You can find links to Inflation and Consumer Price Index data for other countries HERE. A chart of Inflation by decade, Annual Inflation and Confederate Inflation is also available. Menu navigation is available on the menu bar on the left of every page. We have a complete listing of all of our Articles on inflation, including Inflation Definitions, Which is better High or Low Inflation, and How to Calculate Inflation , Inflation Adjusted Oil Prices (Chart) and Inflation Adjusted Oil Prices (table) and a Monthly Inflation Rate Table .
You might also be interested in the wide variety of articles on our sister site Financial Trend Forecaster like the article on Finding the right Mortgage, Developing a Millionaire Mind, a complete list of the articles on Financial Trend Forecaster is at the FTF Article Archives.
Blank Cells = Data not available because it has not been released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVE
1985 3.53% 3.52% 3.70% 3.69% 3.77% 3.76% 3.55% 3.35% 3.14% 3.23% 3.51% 3.80% 3.55%
1984 4.19% 4.60% 4.80% 4.56% 4.23% 4.22% 4.20% 4.29% 4.27% 4.26% 4.05% 3.95% 4.30%
1983 3.71% 3.49% 3.60% 3.90% 3.55% 2.58% 2.46% 2.56% 2.86% 2.85% 3.27% 3.79% 3.22%
1982 8.39% 7.62% 6.78% 6.51% 6.68% 7.06% 6.44% 5.85% 5.04% 5.14% 4.59% 3.83% 6.16%
1981 11.83% 11.41% 10.49% 10.00% 9.78% 9.55% 10.76% 10.80% 10.95% 10.14% 9.59% 8.92% 10.35%
1980 13.91% 14.18% 14.76% 14.73% 14.41% 14.38% 13.13% 12.87% 12.60% 12.77% 12.65% 12.52% 13.58%
1979 9.28% 9.86% 10.09% 10.49% 10.85% 10.89% 11.26% 11.82% 12.18% 12.07% 12.61% 13.29% 11.22%
1978 6.84% 6.43% 6.55% 6.50% 6.97% 7.41% 7.70% 7.84% 8.31% 8.93% 8.89% 9.02% 7.62%
1977 5.22% 5.91% 6.44% 6.95% 6.73% 6.87% 6.83% 6.62% 6.60% 6.39% 6.72% 6.70% 6.50%
1976 6.72% 6.29% 6.07% 6.05% 6.20% 5.97% 5.35% 5.71% 5.49% 5.46% 4.88% 4.86% 5.75%
1975 11.80% 11.23% 10.25% 10.21% 9.47% 9.39% 9.72% 8.60% 7.91% 7.44% 7.38% 6.94% 9.20%
1974 9.39% 10.02% 10.39% 10.09% 10.71% 10.86% 11.51% 10.86% 11.95% 12.06% 12.20% 12.34% 11.03%
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