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家园 经济上,似乎不能说赚了,得等金融谈判结果

根据英国人自己的统计,英欧贸易,英是入超。2019年,英国方面贸易赤字总额是790亿英镑,其中服务贸易盈余180亿,货物贸易赤字970亿英镑:

Statistics on UK-EU trade

The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£79 billion with the EU in 2019. A surplus of £18 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£97 billion on trade in goods.

如果双方未来货物贸易延续现在的规则,互不加税,英国仍然会是入超。这个也在预料之中,相比德、法、意,英国现在的制造业乏善可陈。

另外,根据上面这个研究,欧盟在英国对外贸易中的比重一直在下降:

The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 54% in 2002 to 43% in 2019.

The share of UK imports accounted for by the EU fell from 57% in 2006 to 52% in 2019.

或许,英国现在觉得自己并不那么需要欧盟?

有意思的是这一条:

Wales, followed by Northern Ireland and the North East of England had the highest percentage of goods exports going to the EU of all the countries and regions in the UK in 2019. Northern Ireland followed by the East of England had the highest proportion of goods imports from the EU.

不知道这个“英格兰东北部(North East of England)”是不是苏格兰。未来货物贸易规则不变,可以说,英国保住了伦敦金融城以外地区利益未受损。

但是问题来了。如果接下来的金融谈判结果对英不利,英格兰南部为主的金融资本家会起来“清君侧”,掀翻爆浆政权吗?美国的脚掰政权愿意在美英贸易协定中让步,给补上这180亿英镑吗?

通宝推:甘丹,
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