主题：数学问题：换新车还是继续用旧车？ -- 东方射日

手算算不清楚， 直接模拟了， 低端勿笑

模拟结果

策略一 平均年花费 1549.03

策略二 平均年花费 1820.935

如果LZ设定合理的话， 我以后就按策略1来了。。。

我用的是R模拟， 高手看看有没错

####plan2########

n<-100000

newold<-0

spend<-1000

for (i in 2:n){

if (newold==0){

newold<-sample(c(0,1,2), 1, replace =TRUE, prob = c(0.85,0.1,0.05))

if (newold==0){

spend<-spend+1000}

else if (newold==1){

spend<-spend+1500

}

else if (newold==2){

spend<-spend+6000

newold<-0

}

}

if (newold==1){

newold<-sample(c(1,2), 1, replace =TRUE, prob = c(0.70,0.3))

if (newold==1){

spend<-spend+1500}

else if (newold==2){

spend<-spend+6000

newold<-0}

}

}

spend/n

####plan1####

n<-100000

newold<-0

spend<-1000

for (i in 2:n){

newold<-sample(c(0,1,2), 1, replace =TRUE, prob = c(0.85,0.1,0.05))

if (newold==0){

spend<-spend+1000}

else if (newold==1){

spend<-spend+4000

newold<-0

}

else if (newold==2){

spend<-spend+6000

newold<-0

}

}

spend/n