淘客熙熙

主题:【原创】谈谈时间序列的平稳性(1) -- 万里风中虎

共:💬217 🌺809 新:
全看分页树展 · 主题 跟帖
家园 It's not a simple model

It's a misspecified model. The simple model is ADF. And your ADF already demonstrated there is no trend or drift. It's just a pure random walk. I'm not sure if the conclusion changes if you add in cycle. More importantly, ADF clearly says you should not use OLS. If you do, results are not valid. Regressing a random walk on time t very likely will give significant coefficient. But it's spurious and misleading.

全看分页树展 · 主题 跟帖


有趣有益,互惠互利;开阔视野,博采众长。
虚拟的网络,真实的人。天南地北客,相逢皆朋友

Copyright © cchere 西西河