主题：04/22/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Economic data starts back up with initial claims and existing home sales. The big news for the morning will be the after hours earnings from AAPL and EBAY and how they are treated by investors. Oh yes, there is also word from GM that it is going to have to shut down its plants for 9 weeks this summer and could still miss payments to its creditors. Things are not as great on the recovery front as hope. Hope is a good thing; it sustains you in bad times. Thanks, 'Shawshank Redemption.' Foolish hope, however, can hurt you. The bank earnings and some of the industrial earnings reports suggest there is too much foolish hope out there.

We definitely DON'T want to appear overly negative, especially when stocks have been surging and were up after hours. After such a strong run, however, we have consistently used the surge to take profits. Now there is some indecision in the market action after the long run. It does not mean the run is over. As noted above, it is and can continue to move laterally and consolidate, setting the stage for another move. That is why we are not sweating the after hours earnings when we took some good gain ahead of them. We banked a lot of money and will ALWAYS have an opportunity to play the earnings results down the road after the initial move, up or down, is made and consolidates. AMZN made us a ton on its January post-earnings move after it consolidated its gap and we were not anywhere near the stock when it announced its results.

Will a renewed move come Thursday? Likely not. AAPL is up after hours but it only made it back to 125 where it was trading on its Wednesday high. There was no 10 or more point surge on the news. It is extended. EBAY beat the street but its earnings were crappy for EBAY earnings. This has to be worked out by the market that has rallied well and is a bit weary and taking a deserved pause.

Asia is lower right as this is written roughly around a half percent; no major meltdown but not a resounding response to the AAPL news. US futures are down just a hair though NASDAQ is up 0.43%. Doesn't mean much now. It is a long time to morning but you get a sense that the earnings were not overpowering everything to the upside.

As the market is working through a consolidation that can be a potential new rallying point or can break down, we are going to continue to be ready to play the move whichever way it happens. Some stocks will break higher, some will break lower, others will trade in a range. Those are all moves we can make money on as the market works off the excess from the last run and sets up for its next move.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1646.12

Resistance:

The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)

1661 is the April 2009 prior peak

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

The 200 day SMA at 1778

1947 is the October gap down point

Support:

The 18 day EMA at 1604

1623 is the early April peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1603 is the December peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

The 50 day EMA at 1545

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

S&P 500: Closed at 843.55

Resistance:

846 is the April peak

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

842 is the early April peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

833 is the March 2009 peak

The 90 day SMA at 825

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 50 day EMA at 818

815 is the early December 2008 low

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 7886.57

Resistance:

7909 is the early January low

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The early April peak at 8076

The April peak at 8113

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

The 50 day EMA at 7783

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 20 - Monday

March Leading Economic Indicators (10:00): -0.3% actual versus -0.2% expected, -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%)

April 22 - Wednesday

04/17 Crude Oil Inventories (10:35): +3.8M actual, +5.670M prior

April 23 - Thursday

04/18 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 630K expected, 610K prior

Existing Home Sales, March (10:00): 4.65M expected, 4.72M

April 24 - Friday

March Durable Orders (8:30): -1.5% expected, 5.1% prior

Durable Orders, Ex-Auto, March (8:30): -1.2% expected, 3.9% prior

New Home Sales, March (10:00): 340K expected, 337K prior