主题：04/16/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Expiration Friday and there have already been some downside and upside moves in advance this week, the latest being the Thursday rally. As there were some significant moves both ways Tuesday through Thursday it is quite possible that Friday turns out to be a quieter session or a session dominated by one predominant move.

Earnings will again play an important role with GOOG's after hours results that were well-received until the CEO talked of 'uncharted territory' and a terrible ad environment. Will GOOG's worries blanket the rest of the techs and market in malaise? We will see; thus far the market has shaken off individual earnings . . . after a brief setback as on NASDAQ after the INTC numbers.

If we get some more upside out of this we will take some more gain as our positions move higher. As for new buys, well we will be looking for good moves but Friday is not our favorite entry time as another solid move higher would set up the market for some pullback to start next week, and that would either give us better entry points or start something more significant to the downside. The Monday after an upside expiration is often lower. There is also that low volume on this rise that will at some point bite it like a Charlie Horse if more upside volume does not come in, and we have to be cognizant of that and not buy into surges that are a few days old.

Thus we play it closer to the vest for new buys but if we see something really solid we can venture some shares. Again, however, on a good surge higher we bank some more gain. As stated above this kind of move can run further than rational thought would consider, but that does not mean it goes up forever. Thus we take advantage of good upside entry points when presented and also take gain on good moves and follow the moves higher with reasonable trailing stops.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1670.44

Resistance:

1780 is the November 2008 peak

1947 is the October gap down point

Support:

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1661 is the April 2009 prior peak

The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)

1644 from August 2003

1623 is the early April peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

The 10 day EMA at 1616

1603 is the December peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

The 50 day EMA at 1528

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

S&P 500: Closed at 865.30

Resistance:

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken

853 is the July 2002 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

846 is the April peak

842 is the early April peak

The 10 day EMA at 841

839 is the early October 2008 low

833 is the March 2009 peak

The 90 day SMA at 827

818 is the early November 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

The 50 day EMA at 813

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 8125.43

Resistance:

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The April peak at 8113

The early April peak at 8076

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 10 day EMA at 7954

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7909 is the early January low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

The 50 day EMA at 7753

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 14 - Tuesday

PPI, March (8:30): -1.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

Core PPI (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)

Retail sales, March (8:30): -1.1% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from -0.1%)

Retail ex-auto (8:30): -0.9% actual versus 0.0% expected, 1.0% prior (revised from 0.7%)

Business inventories, February (10:00): -1.3% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.3% prior (revised from -1.1%)

April 15 - Wednesday

CPI, March (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior

Core CPI (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

New York PMI, April (8:30): -14.65 actual versus -35.0 expected, -38.2 prior

Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 69.3% actual versus 69.7% expected, 70.3% prior

Industrial Production, March (9:15): -1.5% actual versus -0.9% expected, -1.5% prior

Crude oil inventories (10:30): +5.6M actual versus +2.5M expected, +1.6M prior

Fed Beige Book (2:00)

April 16 - Thursday

Housing starts, March (8:30): 510K actual versus 540K expected, 572K prior (revised from 583K)

Building permits, March (8:30): 503K actual versus 549K expected, 564K prior (revised from 547K)

Initial jobless claims (8:30): 610K actual versus 658K expected, 663K prior (revised from 654K)

Philly Fed, April (10:00): -24.4 actual versus -32.0 expected, -35.0 prior

April 17 - Friday

Michigan Preliminary sentiment, April (9:55): 58.5 expected, 57.3 prior