主题：04/14/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Tuesday night it was GS with great earnings but a stock offering that got it slapped around. INTC broke higher Tuesday but could not hold the move. After hours some solid earnings and gross margins. It said the PC market bottomed in Q1 and would return to normal seasonal patterns. Then it said it would spend less on facilities and equipment. It also said gross margins would be in the mid-40's versus the 46% to 47% the street expected. That gutted it and it was down 5.5% after hours taking the chip equipment stocks lower with it. This will be a real challenge for the market: its primary leadership group will be under some serious pressure.

There is also the CPI, NY PMI, Industrial production and capacity. Then the Fed Beige Book straggles in during the afternoon session. It is also expiration week and midweek can show some volatility with bigger swings. Saw some of those in the financial sector. Economic data influenced the Tuesday action but it is not going to do a lot to impact the Wednesday start given the INTC news.

So the market gets a real test after another pretty solid earnings report looks to be dusting up the futures to the downside again. Could it be that the early earnings love affair after RIMM, BBBY, WFC's pre-announcement is already over? The market hit next resistance, moved modestly through it, but then could not hold it. It is now testing on rising volume.

We will see how INTC is truly treated tomorrow, but if the chips are going to stumble then the selloff could have some significant downside. As the market could not capitalize on the late recovery attempt, the volume was up, the INTC results are not well received, Asian markets are lower, and it is expiration week, we will ready to take some off the table as opportunity is presented if an early test is not sharply reversed to the upside. If the latter we will, as always, look for some upside opportunity if support holds and good stocks bounce, but we have to also keep focused on existing positions and preserve gain as the volume and earnings reception are teaming up right now.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1625.72

Resistance:

1644 from August 2003

The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

1947 is the October gap down point

Support:

1623 is the April peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1603 is the December peak

The 10 day EMA at 1600

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

The 50 day EMA at 1519

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day SMA at 1484

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

S&P 500: Closed at 841.50

Resistance:

846 is the April peak

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

839 is the early October 2008 low

833 is the March 2009 peak

The 10 day EMA at 833

The 90 day SMA at 827

818 is the early November 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

The 50 day EMA at 809

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 7920.18

Resistance:

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The April peak at 8076

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7909 is the early January low

The 10 day EMA at 7891

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

The 50 day EMA at 7726

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 14 - Tuesday

PPI, March (8:30): -1.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

Core PPI (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)

Retail sales, March (8:30): -1.1% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from -0.1%)

Retail ex-auto (8:30): -0.9% actual versus 0.0% expected, 1.0% prior (revised from 0.7%)

Business inventories, February (10:00): -1.3% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.3% prior (revised from -1.1%)

April 15 - Wednesday

CPI, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior

Core CPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

New York PMI, April (8:30): -35.0 expected, -38.2 prior

Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 69.7% expected, 70.9% prior

Industrial Production, March (9:15): -0.9% expected, -1.4% prior

Crude oil inventories (10:30): +1.6M prior

Fed Beige Book (2:00)

April 16 - Thursday

Housing starts, March (8:30): 550K expected, 583K prior

Building permits, March (8:30): 550K expected, 547K prior

Initial jobless claims (8:30): 658K expected, 654K prior

Philly Fed, April (10:00): -32.0 expected, -35.0 prior

April 17 - Friday

Michigan Preliminary sentiment, April (9:55): 58.5 expected, 57.3 prior