主题：04/13/2009 Market View -- 宁子

A slow Monday with no scheduled data, and with earnings announcements and pre-announcements here the focus is not so much on the economic data. It is not worthless, it is just running in the pack with other data, namely earnings.

The general idea we hear on the financial stations is that the economy is getting better. We have chronicled the improvement in several categories the past three months, e.g. regional and national manufacturing, same store sales, factory orders. The fact that they are touting improvement is enough to worry you as to whether this is just a short term blip improvement or something more sustainable. The fact that the data is coming in from many different areas and showing some improvement gives you more comfort. Still . . .

The best indicator is the market. Right now it is trending higher off the bear market lows, but it is still an intermediate trend for the NYSE indices as they have not made higher highs yet. Thus even with the financials joining the move the past 4 weeks it is still not enough to drive their indices to new post-low highs similar to NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and SOX. The indices are moving better to the upside, some key moves have been made as noted (NASDAQ, etc.), and there is improvement in the data as noted. The data is helping confirm the stock market move, but beware as neither are all that strong right now. We take what the market gives but we also note what the market is telling us. It is up but the indices with most of the financials in them are still in overall downtrends.